Republican Party in Turmoil

The Republican Party is in turmoil.  Its leadership has so far chosen to support a presumptive nominee that has used hate, fear and personal attacks to secure enough delegates to be nominated at its upcoming convention.  Does the GOP really want to be the party of Donald Trump?

Does it want to cave to the rebuke Trump challenged them with on Wednesday in campaign a speech Atlanta?  "You know, the Republicans, honestly, folks, our leaders -- our leaders have to get tougher," he said.  "This is too tough to do it alone.  But you know what?  I think I am going to be forced to."  Does the party want to roll over in the face of the stinging criticism it received from Sam Clovis, Trump's campaign co-chair? "Either they want to get behind the presumptive nominee, who will be the nominee of this party, and make sure that we do everything we can to win in November, or we're just asking them if they can't do that, then just shut the hell up," he said.

Following Trump's outrageous statements about an American born judge of Mexican heritage, and his statements about Muslims, he has seen his support among Americans sharply decline.  An astonishing 70 percent of Americans surveyed recently by ABC News now have an unfavorable view of Trump.  Yet Trump intends on doing nothing to address this problem.  Instead, he is using the same narrow strategy that brought him victory in the Republican primaries--attack, divide and bully.  But in order to win in the general election he will need to attract independents, Democrats, women and minorities. 

A growing number of Republicans at all levels are distancing themselves from Trump. Asked to comment on Trump's ridiculous statement that President Obama was responsible for the terrorist massacre in Orlando, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell responded, "I am not going to be commenting on the presidential candidate today."  Last week, when McConnell was asked who Trump should pick as his running mate, he said, "He needs someone highly experienced and very knowledgeable because it's pretty obvious he doesn't know a lot about the issues."  

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who announced his support of Trump after many weeks, still has not fully embraced the candidate.  In an interview with NBC News, which will air Sunday, Ryan was asked whether Republicans should follow their conscience?   "The last thing I would do is tell anybody to do something that's contrary to their conscience," he said. "I get that this a very strange situation. He a very unique nominee. But I feel as a responsibility institutionally as the speaker of the House that I should not be leading some chasm in the middle of our party. Because you know what I know that'll do? That'll definitely knock us out of the White House," he added.  

Fundraising is now a problem for the Republican Party.  And many major companies that sponsored the GOP's 2012 convention have announced they will not be sponsoring its upcoming convention.  Down-ballot races are now threatened because Trump's behavior is undermining Senate and House candidates across the country.  The problem is so severe that the party has turned to former President George W. Bush, who was very unpopular when he left office, to help save its most vulnerable senators.  

Stopping Trump from becoming the Republican presidential nominee will not be easy at this point.  Trump received more than 13 million votes in the primaries, and he has won more than enough delegates to be nominated.   If the party gives its nomination to someone else, and there is no clear alternative, it will risk revolt.   But would the GOP really be worse off if it did so?

For the past eight years the Republicans have been the party of obstructionism in Congress. Its leadership has allowed a minority of conservatives to dictate the direction of the party no matter the consequences, including shutting the government down.  The leadership has repeatedly said no to compromise with Democrats for fear of upsetting those on its far right.

So it should be no surprise that the party's leadership has not stood up to Donald Trump. His bullying tactics, racist statements and lack of temperament have damaged their brand, and they will do nothing except hope for the best in November's elections.  

In short, Republicans will reap what they have sown.    

Trump vs. Clinton

Republican Donald Trump was the big winner in presidential contests Tuesday in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii.   But former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton narrowly lost to Senator Bernie Sanders in Michigan because she underperformed with working-class white male voters, a group Trump does well with.   This portends a serious problem for Clinton should she face Trump in the November presidential election.

Trump's victories came at a time when many political pundits predicted that he was peaking in the polls.  Trump endured a massive advertising campaign financed by political action committees trying to knock him out.  He withstood attacks from leaders of the Republican establishment.  He even overcame perceived gaffes, including comparisons to Adolph Hitler.   Nothing could dissuade loyal Trump supporters from voting for him.
  
Anger is the fuel of Trump-mania.  Many Republican voters are totally fed up with the gridlock in Washington.  Many dislike President Barack Obama, but many feel betrayed by Republicans in Congress who have not fulfilled their promises.  And no group is more angry than working-class voters who feel left behind.   From 1973 to 2013, the hourly wages of middle-wage workers were stagnant, rising just 6 percent, or less than .02 percent per year.   Meanwhile, the annual wages for the top 1 percent have grown 138 percent since 1979.  

Jobs are also an important issue for voters this election.  While Michigan employment has been increasing over the past four years, it has only recovered 40 percent of the industrial jobs lost during the recession.   The North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, which was signed by President Bill Clinton, has resulted in nearly a quarter-million lost manufacturing jobs in Michigan. Senator Sanders and Trump both have been harshly critical of NAFTA and the recent proposal Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Clinton only recently announced her opposition to.

Trump has appealed to millions of disheartened Americans without having to provide much in the way of specifics on issues.  He is a brash outsider who many voters think "tells it like it is."   They are fed up with U.S. immigration policy.  Despite a lack of details, they believe Trump will deport eleven million immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally, and they believe he will build a wall along the Mexican border and get Mexico to pay for it.   Voters have overlooked the growing scandal surrounding Trump University, his petulant name calling and personal insults, and even his flip flops on key issues.  

Trump will need to get 60 percent of the remaining delegates in the upcoming presidential contests in order to reach the 1237 delegates needed to secure the Republican presidential nomination.  Given his surprising performance Tuesday, and the fact that he has won so many southern states, where Texas Senator Ted Cruz was favored, and he is doing well among evangelicals and conservatives, it will be hard to stop him from achieving his goal.   In fact, Trump has already begun the task of mending fences with the GOP establishment.  

On the other hand, given her huge lead in the delegate count, it is very likely that Hillary Clinton will get her party's nomination.  Her closely contested race with Sanders is but a tepid warmup for her likely clash with Donald Trump.   Trump will relentlessly attack Clinton on foreign policy, like Libya and Benghazi, on women's issues, on President Bill Clinton's affairs, on the Clinton foundation, on emails, on Goldman Sachs speaking fees, and more.  
Trump has had a major impact on the large Republican primary turn out so far, and on mobilizing working-class voters, as well as independents and Democrats.  These are the voters Clinton will need to be elected president in November, especially in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois.  While recent polls indicate that Clinton beats Trump in a head to head match up, it would be wise not to bet against Donald Trump.

On the other hand, in his book, The Art of the Deal, Trump wrote, "You can't con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole."  He concluded, "But if you don't deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on."   Can Donald Trump deliver the goods?  

Christie for President

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the latest Republican to announce he is running for president.  He joins an already overcrowded field of candidates seeking their party's nomination.  But Christie stands out because an overwhelming majority of his own state's registered voters disapproves of his performance in office. 

His announcement speech, which will take place Tuesday at his former high school, will be given without the aid of a teleprompter.  It will reflect his campaign theme, "Telling it like it is," and be targeted to Republican voters in New Hampshire, where he will go next to begin campaigning.  He will highlight his middle-class upbringing, his family values, and his willingness to make tough decisions on entitlements and government spending.

But many Republicans have not forgotten Christie's post Hurricane Sandy walking tour in 2012 with then candidate President Barack Obama, which came in his closely contested state at the expense of GOP candidate Mitt Romney.  Teachers in the state have not forgotten his harsh attacks on educators and college administrators in his effort to reform the education system.  Public sector unions have not forgotten that the governor has run roughshod over their pensions.  And commuters have not forgotten that it was Christie's appointees who shut down lanes of the George Washington Bridge, aka Bridgegate, as political retribution against those who did not support the governor's reelection.

In his announcement Christie is expected to point to his governance of a blue state as an example of how he can work with both sides of the political aisle.  But state Democrats would argue differently.  Christie will say he can make the tough decisions, but many of his opponents will criticize his tough tactics.

Christie's brash and in-your-face style will win him supporters among Republican voters seeking a candidate who seemingly has strong leadership skills.  He will stand out among the field of announced Republican candidates, and will likely do well in the upcoming party debates.  

But this self-described pragmatic conservative Republican is thought by many in the party to be too moderate to win the nomination.  While he has raised a lot of money as the Chairman of the Republican Governor's Association, more than $100 million, some of his political positions are not in sync with the Republican base, including immigration and gun control.  

Governor Christie was reelected to a second term in 2013 with 60.3 percent of the vote, which was driven largely by his leadership in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.  Because he is term limited he will not be able to run for governor again in 2017.  But even if he were eligible then it is unlikely that New Jersey voters, who have soured on his act, would reelect him.  So for him a run for the presidency is his next best option to be elected to public office.  

The fact is Christie has nothing to lose and everything to gain by pursuing the White House.   He has said, "I think what the American people want more than anything else right now is someone who's just going to look them in the eye and tell them the truth, even some truths that they don't like."  But the reality is do enough Republicans trust Christie enough to nominate him as their standard bearer in 2016?

The Homeland Security Impasse

 Minnesota's Mall of America was named this past weekend as a possible target of a terrorist attack in a one-hour video released by the militant Somali group al-Shabaab.   Concern about such an attack could not be higher, especially following on the heels of terrorist attacks in France and Denmark.  But that has not deterred congressional Republicans from playing games with America's security.

Republicans promised things would get better if they were put in charge of Congress.  Yet, due to a lack of leadership and seemingly irresolvable differences among their members, they are holding up funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which is set to run out this Friday. 

What kind of game is this?  Well, House Republicans, unhappy with President Barack Obama's executive order on immigration, have attached an amendment to the DHS funding bill that would stop the president's immigration action, which they consider illegal.  The strategy was to have the DHS funding bill pass with the immigration amendment attached.  If the president subsequently vetoed the measure he would be attacked for failing to protect the nation. 

But the Republican measure has not been able to clear the Senate because Republicans do not have enough votes to avoid a filibuster.   Democrats in Congress want a "clean bill" to fund DHS, one without any amendments.  Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.  If DHS funding runs out thousands of its employees will be furloughed, while 170,000 essential personal will have to work without pay.  "We need to fund the Department of Homeland Security," Senator John McCain (R-AZ) said Monday evening, "We cannot shut down the Department of Homeland Security." 

With Republicans facing increased criticism and blame for the impasse, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) proposed an alternative strategy.  He would allow a clean vote on the DHS funding bill, which is for one year, and then have a separate vote on a bill that would stop President Obama's executive actions on immigration.  His goal would be to make Democrats, who did not favor the president's executive action, have to vote on the record.

But Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) was more concerned that House Republicans would not go along with the proposal.  This is because House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) cannot control his own caucus.  And, sure enough, with McConnell's proposal only hours old, conservative House members spoke out against the gambit.   Rep. Matt Salmon (R-AZ) issued a statement saying, "The Senate Majority Leader’s plan to divorce the funding bill from the unlawful actions it is restricting is tantamount to surrender, and won’t meet with support in the People’s House."

Meanwhile, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), the man responsible for the 2013 government shutdown, issued a statement of his own.   "Leadership's current plan -- to pass clean DHS funding and separate legislation barring executive amnesty -- is a mistake," Cruz said. "Congress is obliged to use every constitutional check and balance we have to rein in President Obama's lawlessness, and that includes both our confirmation authority over nominees and the power of the purse."

Last week a Texas federal judge halted implementation of the president's executive order on immigration.  The case is likely to take some time to work its way through the courts.  This has led many observers to wonder why Republicans just don't go ahead with a clean DHS funding bill and let the courts deal with the legality of the president's action on immigration.  

That would seem like common sense, especially considering the increased terrorist threats.  But common sense does not apply in Washington, least of all for congressional Republicans. 

Poltical Road Ahead

Congressional Republicans are already scuffling amongst themselves as they prepare to take control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives next year. One thing is for sure: Republicans enjoyed a big victory at the polls last week, which is quite an achievement for a party that just two years earlier had been in turmoil. 

The Republicans smartly nationalized all of the Senate and House races. It was as if each GOP candidate was running against President Barack Obama, whose national approval rating is in the low 40s. The Republicans mobilized their base and discouraged the Democrat base. In fact, only 36.4 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the midterms, the lowest voter turnout since World War II. 

Remarkably, several Democratic candidates, including in Kentucky, Louisiana and Arkansas, did not embrace their party's leader for fear it would drag them down. This very public strategy only exacerbated the negative perceptions of the president. In fact, the Democratic Senate candidate in Kentucky, Alison Lundergan Grimes, refused to say if she had voted for Obama, but volunteered she had supported Hillary Clinton in 2008.

It is inexplicable why Democratic candidates so severely snubbed the president. After all, they were running as Democrats, and President Obama is the head of their party. And congressional Republicans have an approval rating that is far below the president's!

Democratic candidates could have embraced the 10 million jobs that have been added to the economy as a result of the president's economic policies. They could have pointed to Obama's stimulus package, which halted the country's economic free fall that was the result of President George W. Bush's economic policies. They could have reminded voters that the president saved the U.S. automobile industry, over the opposition of many leading Republicans. Candidates could have pointed to stock prices, which are at an all time high, and gas prices, which are at a recent low. Are most Americans better off than they were when the President Obama took office in January 2009? You bet!

Democratic candidates could have campaigned on the success of the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare. Despite its rocky launch, the ACA is working. Millions of uninsured Americans now have health care coverage, and the growth of health care costs has been slowed. Ironically, the Kentucky version of Obamacare, known as Kynect, is a huge success, yet soon to be Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is determined to repeal the law.

Democrats could have been more united on foreign policy. Republicans attacked President Obama's policies toward Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq and ISIS. Yet Republicans only loudly criticized, they did not offer any constructive solutions to these complex problems. Democrats failed to mention that the Bush invasion of Iraq in 2003 created the chain reaction that led to most of today's crises. While it is legitimate to question some of the president's foreign policy actions, Republican criticisms were primarily designed to score political points.

Republicans exploited the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa by publicly questioning the president's competence. Never mind that it was a Texas hospital that blew it, while the state's Republican governor, Rick Perry, left the state for a fundraising jaunt rather than take charge. There is no more powerful mobilizer of voters than fear, and the GOP tapped into that emotion. The president followed expert opinions that the virus had to be stopped in Central Africa, and closing the US borders would be counterproductive. So far only one person has died of the virus in the United States, and he got it in Africa. Meanwhile, today the US is Ebola free, and the Republicans cries of danger have quieted.

This year's poor election turnout reflects apathy among many of those who formed the Obama coalition that helped him secure victories in two national elections. Fewer Hispanics voted last week than in 2012, perhaps discouraged because meaningful immigration reform has been stuck in Congress (because of House Republicans). Fewer black people voted, perhaps because the president was not on the ballot, or the result of new voter ID laws. Fewer poor Americans voted, perhaps discouraged by the nation's growing income inequality. And fewer young people voted, perhaps because they don't think their vote will change things.

Had Democratic candidates run on the president's record of success, would the election results in some states been different? Probably. The president himself accepts part of the responsibility for the election results. "I think we have not been successful in going out there and letting people know what it is that we're trying to do and why this is the right direction," Obama said on CBS News' Face the Nation. All politicians must ask themselves why, in the world's greatest Democracy, did 60 percent of the country's eligible voters fail to cast a ballot on election day. 

Republicans employed a campaign of deception, distortion and voter suppression to succeed this November. Now that they will be in charge of Congress, and all of its key committees, they will turn their attention to dismantling Obamacare, repealing Dodd-Frank, cutting social programs, passing the Keystone Pipeline bill, enacting tax reform and reducing government regulation. They will refuse to act on meaningful immigration reform, and they will pursue hawkish foreign policy initiatives. In other words, we'll have two more years of politics as usual.

Vote/Voto

It's a race to the finish line, but Republicans seem to have a decisive edge in Tuesday's midterm elections.  Should the Republicans gain control of the Senate, they will control both houses of Congress and the consequences will be dramatic.  

Turnout in the 2014 midterm elections may be a record low.  Yet, the outcome may affect every American.  The gridlock that currently plagues Washington will only increase with Republicans in control of the Senate.  Memo to Democrats: an array of important issues, currently being blocked by the GOP, will either be bottled up or repealed.  

The Democrat president has been stymied because it takes 60 votes in the Senate to end a filibuster that blocks legislation or nominations from passage.  Currently the Democrats are unable to overcome this roadblock because they have a bare majority, and the Republicans have fully leveraged their position.   A Republican majority in the Senate will mean open season for the party.

Take the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, which is the law of the land and has been implemented in many states.  Presently, millions of formerly uninsured Americans are now covered by President Barack Obama's signature program.   The law has had dramatically positive results, especially in helping to reduce the growth of health care costs.  While the program is not perfect, it is working.  Yet Senate Republicans, led by Texas Senator Ted Cruz, will be emboldened to kill this law.  They see the ACA as an entitlement that must be eliminated.

Equal pay for women will be a lost cause.  So will attempts to raise the minimum wage.  Governor Chris Christie spoke for most Republicans when he recently said, “I’m tired of hearing about the minimum wage.” He continued, “I don’t think there’s a mother or a father sitting around a kitchen table tonight in America who are saying, ‘You know, honey, if our son or daughter could just make a higher minimum wage, my God, all our dreams would be realized.’”  Yet most economists believe the minimum wage should be increased. 

The Democrat controlled Senate passed an immigration reform bill, but the Republican House, under its Speaker John Boehner, has refused to vote on the measure.  House Republicans want to close the southern borders and deport most illegals.  Their idea of the Dream Act is sending all immigrants home who are here illegally.  They actually believe that the illegals are taking jobs away from able Americans.  

Several important government positions have not been filled because Republicans are sitting on the nominations.  Should the Supreme Court have a vacancy, the GOP will do all they can to block any nomination by President Obama.  They would prefer a nominee who will role back a woman's right to choose, same sex marriage, and allow interest groups to anonymously spend enormous amounts of money on their candidates.  Their nominee would support expansion of voter ID laws, which adversely impact the elderly and minorities, typically Democrats.

If you think you have heard enough about the GOP manufactured scandals of Benghazi and IRS, which have been thoroughly investigated, you better fasten your seat belts.  A Republican controlled Senate will spend millions of taxpayer dollars trying to score political points against Democrats, like Hillary Clinton, the party's probable 2016 presidential candidate.  The will do so by opening new investigations and dragging them out through 2016.   

It seems inexplicable that the "party of no" will gain control of Congress.  Congressional Republicans have an approval rating of 21%, while 69% of those polled last month disapprove of Congressional Republicans.  That is half the president's approval numbers.  Yet the GOP may be rewarded with control of both Houses of Congress.

Following the 2008 Presidential Elections, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who is currently the Minority Leader, made it his number one priority to destroy President Obama and his agenda.  He calculated that the president would bear the blame for a dysfunctional government, so McConnell did all he could to bollix up the works with partisan tactics, including shutting down the government.  Now, even though he is unpopular in his home state of Kentucky, he is on the verge of being rewarded with reelection.  
 
President Obama has been hammered by the GOP for his handling of ISIS, the ruthless terrorist group that has gained control of significant territory in Syria and Iraq.  But it was the Republican President George Bush who lied to America to begin the Iraq war, which led to this mess.  Had the president given arms two years ago to the so-called moderate factions fighting Syria's government, there would have still been an ISIS and Obama would have been blamed for arming the group.

Republicans are critical of the president's foreign policy.  For instance, the removal of American combats troops from Iraq.  Yet, the troop withdrawal was in accordance with a status of forces agreement negotiated by Bush.  

Speaking of President Bush, his economic policies, based on traditional Republican principles and ideals, led to the worst recession this country has had since the Great Depression.  The "trickle down" economic theory espoused by Republicans has not worked, and has led to a further gap in this country between rich and poor.  President Obama has dug this country out of the deep economic hole he inherited, by increasing employment, reducing the deficit, and putting tougher banking regulations in place on "too big to fail" type institutions.

To those Democrats who don't think this election is important enough for them to exercise their precious right to vote, especially African Americans, Latinos, the young, and women, they will only have themselves to blame for what comes next.   

Midterm Madness

A crisis is a terrible thing to waste, and the Republicans are capitalizing on every crisis, foreign and domestic.  With less than two weeks to go before the midterm elections, Republicans are perfectly positioned to win control of the U.S. Senate because the president is unpopular.

Republican Congressional candidates, from North Carolina to Iowa, are running against Barack Obama rather than their opponent.   Turnout in midterm elections is traditionally poor.  All Republicans have to do is mobilize their base by keeping the focus on President Barack Obama, pounding away at him with their message of incompetence and detachment.   If the Democrat base does not turn out, which appears likely, control of the Senate will change hands. 

Nothing mobilizes a population more than fear, and that's where the crises come in.  Republicans have seized on Ebola.   Congressman Louie Gohmert, R-Tx, along with other members of Congress, has called for a travel ban on citizens traveling from Western Africa to the United States.  The president has said he is open to the idea, but is currently relying on the judgment of most medical experts who say such a ban would be counterproductive.  "This president, I guarantee you, we're going to find out, he has cut a deal with African leaders.  They're going to bring people in," Ghomert told conservative media host Sean Hannity. 

It was noteworthy that Congressional Republicans raced back to the Capitol from their break for a hearing on the Ebola crisis, yet they have been unwilling to debate the issue of America's response to ISIS, the Islamic terrorist group that has threatened much of the Middle East.  Instead, they have attacked the president for his lack of leadership in handling the ISIS crisis.   

There is no question that most Americans are weary of Washington gridlock.  A recent poll found that 70% of "likely voters" disapprove of Congressional Republicans, while 61% disapprove of Congressional Democrats.  Meanwhile, 53% disapprove of the president's performance.  No wonder most voters will stay home on November 4. 

This election is not about issues--it is about politics.  Polls show that a majority of Americans would not repeal Obamacare.  In a moment of candor, Ohio Governor John Kasich, a potential Republican presidential candidate, was asked about repealing Obamacare.  "That's not going to happen," he told the Associated Press.  "The opposition to it was really either political or ideological...I don't think that holds water against flesh and blood, and real improvement in people's lives."  Later in comments to the Washington Post, Kasich, perhaps realizing he had been too honest, said he would repeal Obamacare.  "If the House and Senate (are controlled by Republicans) and we have a Republican president, Obamacare will be repealed flat out," he said.  "And it will be replaced."  Kasich was back on message.

Obamacare has been a big success in Kentucky, where it is a state exchange known as Kynect.  Yet, Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell, who is in a tight race for reelection in that state, denounced Obamacare in a recent debate.  "The best interest of the country would be achieved by pulling out Obamacare, root and branch," he said.  "Now with regard to Kynect, it's a state exchange.  They can continue it if they'd like to.  They'll have to pay for it because the (federal) grant will be over."  These remarks were no doubt unsettling for the more than 400,000 Kentuckians who have signed up for health insurance through Kyneck.  But McConnell is more interested in the politics of the issue. 

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, also a likely Republican presidential contender, had a moment of candor when he expressed frustration with all the talk of increasing the minimum wage to the Chamber of Commerce, a largely Republican group.  “I’m tired of hearing about the minimum wage,” Christie said. “I really am. I don’t think there’s a mother or a father sitting around the kitchen table tonight in America saying, ‘You know, honey, if our son or daughter could just make a higher minimum wage, my God, all of our dreams would be realized.’ ”  Democrats have been leading efforts to increase the minimum wage across the country as a way to address income inequality.  But Christie was clearly more interested in the politics of the room he was addressing.

Should the Republicans win the Senate this election, they will control both houses of Congress for the next two years.  The result will be further gridlock, more partisanship, and more frustration for all Americans.  But the Republicans will have what they want most, a political victory.  

The 2014 Midterm Elections

With less than 10 weeks to go before the midterm Congressional elections Americans in general are frustrated with Washington.  National polls show that about three quarters of all Americans disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job.  By comparison, about half of those Americans polled disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of his job. 

Sunday's New York Post reported that 163 laws have been passed and signed by the president since this two-year term of Congress began in January 2013.  That is far lower than the 284 laws that were passed by the 2011-2013 session, which is an all time record for fewest bills passed.  Congress passed 386 laws during the 2009-2011 session.   Former Representative Lee Hamilton (R-IN) told the Post, "I've never seen it any worse in terms of public esteem for the Congress.  I can't find anybody who says a good word about it."

Despite Congress's lack of productivity, and as outrageous as it may seem, it appears that most incumbents will be reelected in November.   Conventional wisdom is that while most Americans want to get rid of Congress, they nonetheless support their own representative.  This is especially true during midterm elections because voter turnout is often very low, which gives incumbents an advantage.  But both parties are leaving nothing to chance, as a record amount of campaign dollars will be poured into this election, surpassing the $3.6 billion spent in 2010.   

Republicans currently hold a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives, 233-199; there are three vacant seats.  The GOP expects to expand its majority in the House.  Meanwhile, Democrats currently hold a majority in the Senate.  But of the 36 Senate seats in play, 21 of them held by Democrats, while 15 are held by Republicans.  If the GOP picks up six Senate seats this midterm they will be in the majority in both houses of Congress.  Most experts, including Nate Silver, of the election site FiveThirtyEight, give Republicans a slight edge to take those seats and become the majority party in the Senate.  

The Republicans are targeting the seven Democratic seats that are up in states where Mitt Romney beat President Obama in the 2012 presidential election.  They are also going after four additional Democratic seats in states where the president remains unpopular.  Republicans will do all they can to make this election about President Obama's unpopularity. 

Domestically the president has been attacked for executive actions he has taken to bypass the blockade that Congress has become.  For example, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who himself has presidential aspirations, has regularly attacked the president, telling Fox News "He believes somehow that he's become a monarch or an emperor that can basically ignore the law and do whatever he wants."  On the other hand, Republicans have attacked President Obama for being disengaged and "leading from behind" on foreign policy.  The president's recent comment the he does not have a strategy on dealing with ISIS in Syria was seized upon by Republicans.  Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI), said on CBS Sunday,  "What I want to hear from the president is that he has a strategy to finish ISIS off, to defeat ISIS."

Congressional and Senate Democratic candidates have tried to localize their elections, but Republicans are focusing on President Obama in an effort to energize their base.  So Democrats are trying to mobilize minority voters,  especially African-Americans, who generally don't vote in midterms.  Party activists are using the shooting in Ferguson, Mo., and conservative calls to impeach the president, to mobilize Blacks.  An increase in the number of Southern Blacks helped Democrats during the 1998 midterm election, when President Bill Clinton was under heavy fire from the right.

Ironically, the one Republican Senator who is in the toughest fight to be reelected is the man who has the most to gain if Republicans win majority control.  Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky), the Senate minority leader, has done all he can to obstruct and block the agenda of President Obama since the day he was sworn in to office in 2009.  McConnell is facing a vigorous challenge from Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.  McConnell is not popular in Kentucky, but a recent state poll shows he has the edge.  Lundergan Grimes is making McConnell's failings in Congress the issue.  But McConnell is tying his opponent to President Obama.  

Should Republicans take control of both houses the legislative process will grind to a halt.  Anything the Republicans pass, like efforts to defund Obamacare, will be vetoed by the president.  Meanwhile, congressional investigations into the so-called scandals surrounding the IRS and Benghazi will intensify.  The partisan divide will widen as Republicans try to score points before the 2016 Presidential Elections.   

Because so much is at stake, this coming election day is not a time for eligible voters to stay home.

Immigration Crisis

President Barack Obama should take executive action on immigration in an effort to ease the current humanitarian crisis along the border, even though some House Republicans have threatened to attempt to impeach him for exceeding his authority.   With the midterm elections just three months away, a Republican impeachment effort would energize Democrats to increase their turnout in key races throughout the country.

There are an estimated 11 million immigrants living illegally in the United States.  But over that past two years there has been an explosion of undocumented children caught crossing the border without parents or guardians.  The bulk of the children come from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, where crime, gangs and violence are rampant.  U.S. authorities have struggled with how to handle the surge.  Those coming from Mexico are immediately returned.  Those coming from Central America must be referred to the Department of Health and Human Services' Office of Refugee Resettlement by law and placed in temporary shelters to await their deportation proceedings.  But the surge has overwhelmed the system.  According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, 57,525 unaccompanied alien children were apprehended along the Southwest Border region in fiscal 2014. 

The president recently asked Congress to authorize $3.7 billion to deal with the crisis.  Instead the House approved two bills that would provide the administration with $694 million but end a program that protects some young immigrants from deportation for two years.  The president said Republican lawmakers are "not even trying to solve the problem."  Meanwhile, the Senate did not act, and Congress adjourned for its five week summer break.  

At a news conference Wednesday, the president was asked about Republican accusations that he is an "imperial president."  Obama responded, saying, "I promise you the American people don’t want me just standing around twiddling my thumbs and waiting for Congress to get something done. Even as we take these executive actions, I’m going to continue to reach out to Democrats and Republicans."  As to immigration, the president said, "So if I’m going to, for example, send more immigration judges down to the border to process some of these unaccompanied children that have arrived at the border, then that’s coming from someplace else, and we’re going to have to prioritize. That’s well within our authorities and prosecutorial discretion."

Under prosecutorial discretion the government could prioritize what cases it wants to pursue.  For instance, the president could authorize prosecutors to focus only on individuals with ties to organized crime or who are convicted of serious criminal offenses.  The president could also expand the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) for children who were brought into the country illegally.  Under the program, individuals apply for a renewable, two-year work permit and temporary reprieve from deportation proceedings.  This would be controversial and give Republicans a chance to charge that illegals are taking jobs away from citizens, even though that would not be true.

In June 2013, the Senate passed an immigration reform bill by a bipartisan vote of 68 to 32.  But the House has refused to take the measure up because of Republican opposition in its chamber.  Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio said last month that the bill would not have stopped the surge of illegal children.  “What I think would have prevented that from happening is sufficient border security on the ground that would have discouraged people from making that journey in the first place,” he told the Washington Times.
Nonetheless, the president is urging passage of the Senate bill.  "My preference would be an actual comprehensive immigration law. And we already have a bipartisan law that would solve a whole bunch of these problems," he said at his news conference.  "Until that happens, I’m going to have to make a choice. That’s what I was elected to do."

Now, while the do-nothing Congress is on its long summer break, the humanitarian crisis along the border worsens.   For sure, some Republicans will go back to their districts and rail at the president for inaction on immigration.  At the same time, House Speaker, and hypocrite, John Boehner is suing the president for exceeding his authority by delaying the employer mandate in the healthcare law that Boehner so vehemently opposes.  Should the president take executive action on immigration, Boehner may decide to raise the ante.

In the near future, Attorney General Eric Holder and Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson will present the president with options for changing deportation policies.  The president should move quickly on their recommendations and do what he was elected to do.    

Pivot Point for Democrats

 The 2014 midterm elections are little more than six months away, and already the Republican Party is feeling giddy about the prospect of big wins in several U.S. Senate races, perhaps enough to give the GOP control of both houses of Congress. This may appear to be surprising if one considers that Republicans are in the minority nationally on most key social and economic issues, especially among Blacks, Latinos and women.

Most Republicans want to repeal the Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. Obamacare, but they can't agree among themselves on how to replace it. And they were dealt a bit of a blow when President Barack Obama announced Tuesday that more than seven million Americans had signed up for health care by the deadline, far exceeding expectations. That number is likely to be much higher when the final count is in.

Now the health care law is starting to pick up some positive momentum, with a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showing 49% of all Americans now support the law, while 48% oppose it. That is nearly a 10% swing to the positive since last November. And the ACA's favorability rating is likely to improve since the enrollment numbers were so strong, and most of the Republican lies and myths about the law have been shown to be untrue.

So a Republican controlled Congress will likely do all it can to bring an end to Obamacare, even if it is piece by piece. What makes Obamacare so repugnant to many Republicans is that it is viewed as another "government handout," like food stamps, unemployment insurance and many social programs. Their view is that the poor and hungry are largely freeloaders. So if Republicans get their way on Obamacare, several million people who now have signed up for the ACA will lose health care and have nothing to replace it.

A majority of Americans across the nation do not agree with Republicans on most social issues, like same sex marriage and equal pay for women. Many states, heavily gerrymandered following big GOP wins in the 2010 state legislative and gubernatorial races, are slowly rolling back existing social reforms.

The Republican Party is made up largely of older and white voters. These are the very people who are most likely to vote during off-year elections, especially when Republicans play on their fears. For instance, the fallacious cries of death panels? Or the ridiculous charge that Obama has become the "imperial president." Or, that Obama is violating the constitution and should be impeached!

Unfortunately for Democrats, many of those who are mobilized by fear and anti-Obama feelings are typically not well informed. They are easy prey for GOP political spinmeisters. And there is no penalty for lying about your opponent.

President Obama was reelected by a sizable margin with the help of young people, minorities and women. But these voter groups do not usually turn out in large numbers for midterm elections. To make matters worse for Democrats, Republican controlled state legislatures are doing all they can to restrict voting access in many states. For instance, some states have voted to end voting on Sundays, the only day many minorities, who work long hours and travel great distances to work, can vote without a loss of pay. Some Republican controlled statehouses have reduced the number of polling places, frequently choosing to close those in more heavily Democratic districts. Republicans claim this is all due to incidents of voter fraud, but the facts show that the number of voter fraud cases nationally is minuscule.

Of course, Republicans are against any meaningful immigration reform. They believe that most immigrants who become citizens will also become Democrats. I wonder why that would happen?

Meanwhile, in Washington Tuesday, Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI), the party's budget guru, drew fire from all sides with his latest federal budget proposal. The Ryan budget calls for deep cuts in so-called safety net programs, education, job training, Pell Grants, and for transforming some social programs into "block grants," which will leave each state to deal with the program. He also proposes huge tax breaks for the rich. Democrats see Ryan's budget as a real liability for Republicans. But, not surprisingly, conservative Republicans think it doesn't go far enough.

Take, for instance, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. "The latest Ryan budget is not an April Fool's joke," Palin wrote on her Facebook page Tuesday, "But it really IS a joke because it is STILL not seeing the problem; it STILL is not proposing reining in wasteful government overspending." The Palin posting reflects the vast schism that currently exists within the Republican Party.

Yet, because more "red state" senate seats are up this election, Republicans are poised to make some major gains. The challenge for Democrats will be to mobilize the Obama coalition.

You think there is gridlock in Washington now? If the GOP wins both houses of Congress in November, nothing meaningful will get done for two years, and many good social programs will come under crippling attack. Representative Darrell Issa (R-CA) will endlessly bask in the television lights as he wastes even more American taxpayer money investigating everything from Benghazi to the First Family's dogs.

Democrats must begin a full court press around the many accomplishments of President Obama, especially Obamacare. Democrats must go on the offensive now, and rally party supporters, especially the young, minorities, and women, from coast to coast. Democrats must make sure that all Americans fully understand what they may lose if they do not vote this coming November.

Senator Paul on the Attack

Hillary Rodham Clinton is the overwhelming front-runner to be her party's standard-bearer in the 2016 Presidential Election, and the Republicans know it.  Even though she has not announced her intentions, Republicans are already taking political shots at her.  But their personal attacks are shrill and feeble, and reveal a party without a vision for the country.

A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead among likely Democratic presidential candidates.  The former First Lady has been in the national spotlight for more than two decades.  In that time she has been a formidable political presence on the national stage, and has displayed tremendous energy and resilience.  Secretary Clinton enjoys great affection and respect from her loyalists, and endures immense disdain from her detractors.   While she is a polarizing figure, her overall personal favorability ratings are very high.  And her great political skills will make her a strong presidential candidate, should she decide to run.

Republicans fear a Clinton candidacy, in part because they do not have a clear front-runner for their party's nomination.  And nearly half the Americans polled in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party.  Nonetheless, potential GOP candidates are already jockeying for position in the nomination race.

None has been more outspoken than Tea Party favorite Senator Rand Paul (R-KY).  And Senator Rand Paul has focused his most recent attacks on Secretary Clinton.  Paul pushed back on the charges that Republicans are engaged in a "war on women." "The Democrats can't say, 'We're the great defenders of women's rights in the workplace'...when the leader of their party, the leading fundraiser in the country, is Bill Clinton, who was a perpetrator of that kind of sexual harassment," Paul told C-Span, referring to the Monica Lewinsky affair.  He continued, "Someone who takes advantage of a young girl in their office?  I mean, really.  And then have the gall to stand up and say, 'Republicans are having a war on women?'"  He concluded, "Now, that's not Hillary's fault...but it is a factor in judging Bill Clinton is history."

Senator Paul's comments got a lot of attention, no doubt as he had hoped.  It was clearly an effort to dredge up old headlines about the Clinton-era dramas in the White House.   His attack received support from GOP party boss Reince Priebus, who told MSNBC that "everything is on the table."  Priebus explained, "I think we're going to have a truckload of opposition research on Hillary Clinton, and some things may be old, and some things may be new.  But I think everything is at stake when you're talking about the leader of the free world."

Priebus is the man who commissioned an autopsy of the Republican failure to win the White House in 2012.  In announcing the results last year, he said, "The way we communicate our principles isn't resonating widely enough...focus groups described our party as 'narrow-minded,' 'out of touch,' and 'stuffy old men.'"  Well, Mr. Priebus?

But not all Republicans think that Senator Paul's approach is the way to win the White House.  Republican strategist Karl Rove told Fox News, "This can't be 'I want to run for president'-It's got to be about something bigger than that, and frankly Rand Paul spending a lot of time talking about the mistakes of Bill Clinton does not look like a big agenda for the country."  He added, "I'm not certain again that beating up on Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky is a particularly good thing to strengthen your skills for the 2016 contest."

Former Republican congressman and current MSNBC television host Joe Scarborough told his audience he'd “never bring that stuff up in a gazillion years.”  But he did pivot, saying that if Secretary Clinton attacks Republicans as anti-women it's fair game.  “Does this not compromise Hillary Clinton’s ability to bash Republicans as being terrible towards women," he said.

Perhaps that is the ultimate Republican strategy.  But it risks energizing Clinton supporters, alienating independent and women voters, and reinforcing the negative perceptions of the party as "out of touch." 

GOP Traffic Jam

Governor Chris Christie has finally gone on the offensive to defuse "bombshell" revelations that he knew about the Ft. Lee lane closures at the time they were happening.  "The Governor first learned lanes at the George Washington Bridge were even closed from press accounts after the fact," the 700-word email from the governor's office said Saturday.  

The email attacked the press for publishing the story, and attacked the story's source, former New York & New Jersey Port Authority official David Wildstein, who is seeking immunity in the investigation. "Bottom line -- David Wildstein will do and say anything to save David Wildstein," the email said.  But the attack on Wildstein got unusually personal, "He was publicly accused by his high school social studies teacher of deceptive behavior."  Really?  This schoolyard retort reveals a frustrated and desperate man.    

Even if Governor Christie's story stands up through the rigorous legislative and federal investigations the incident has triggered, in the end his 2016 presidential aspirations will be snuffed out.  Questions about the way he ran his office, about the people he surrounds himself with, and his management style will dog him for years.  Conservative Republicans already did not support him for higher office.

So, with Governor Christie out of the mix, the race to be the Republican presidential nominee is wide open.   Whomever they choose will likely face a difficult challenge in the 2016 election. A recent Washington Post poll shows Hillary Clinton has a 6 to 1 lead among Democrats over all other potential candidates for the party's nomination.  Further complicating the Republican's task are the divisions within the party between the Tea Party faction and those who hew closer to the center.

The Hill reported that Florida Senator Marco Rubio is now getting a lot of attention, especially since Representative Paul Ryan said he would not run for the White House in 2016.  "A group of Republican fundraising heavyweights and wise men in Washington's business community are solidly behind Rubio, and see him not only as someone who could win the White House, but someone they can work with," The Hill said.  Senator Rubio, who counts himself a Tea Party member, has had his eye on this prize for some time.  He has recently amplified his positions against President Barack Obama, Obamacare, immigration and education.  Ultimately, his role in the immigration debate will have an important impact on whether he can secure his party's support.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has been outspoken on everything from Obamacare to NSA surveillance.  He is a proud libertarian, and aligns himself with the Tea Party on most issues.  But he has recently made controversial statements, and has been accused of plagiarism for lifting parts of his speeches from Wikipedia.  He may prove to be too independent minded for the ever buttoned down Republican Party.

The Republican Party has several governors who could rise to the challenge; Ohio Governor John Kasich and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker are among the strongest.   But neither has a national profile, and both have taken controversial positions on state issues.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would probably be the favored candidate if he decides to throw his hat into the ring.  Last week Bush said, "I'm deferring the decision to the right time, which is later this year."  A recent Washington Post poll shows him only behind Ryan among Republicans as the favored candidate.  Former First Lady Barbara Bush has said she doesn't believe her son should run.  Despite the fact that he is getting a lot of calls from top Republicans urging him to announce, he seems reluctant.  Should he decide to stay on the sidelines, Marco Rubio will benefit most.

Former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney has been appearing everywhere.  Even though some of his supporters have called for him to run again in 2016, he has said he won't.   His running mate in 2014, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, would be a long shot for obvious reasons, as would former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has thrust himself into the national limelight on issues like Obamacare, immigration and raising the federal debt ceiling.  The Harvard educated and overly ambitious Cruz is distrusted by many of his colleagues, especially Republicans.  His failed tactics led to last year's government shutdown.  His "never in doubt" attitude makes him a polarizing figure in Washington.  While the Canadian born senator is a darling of the Tea Party, it is unlikely that he could win his party's nomination.

At this point, the field of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination is wide open.  Governor Chris Christie's plight may not have altered the outcome of the Republican presidential nominating process, but it sure has led to another major traffic jam.

Republican Deaf Ears

Much of the country kicked off the New Year with heavy snowstorms followed by a blast of frigid cold temperatures.   But for 1.3 million Americans, whose unemployment checks have been cut off, this may be the coldest winter of all.

Congress returns on Monday, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says he will schedule a vote on extending unemployment benefits.  But the outcome is uncertain.  Many Republicans in both houses of Congress are opposed to extending benefits; especially those in the GOP controlled House of Representatives.   One administration official predicted Wednesday that failure to extend emergency unemployment insurance through 2014 will have a negative impact on 14 million Americans.   It will also have an adverse effect on the nation's slowly recovering economy because those affected will not be able to buy food and supplies.

Republicans, led by their Tea Party wing, have staked out a series of positions that, when viewed on whole, may leave them vulnerable in future elections.  The president has proposed raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10, which one recent study says will lift 5 million people out of poverty.  Republicans argue against such a move because they believe it is inflationary and it will end up costing jobs.

Congressional Republicans are also sparring with Democrats over their desire to reign in food stamps, citing cost, fraud and abuse.  But a recent statistical report released by the Department of Agriculture shows that the amount of food stamps given out in error is at an all time low, about 3%.  In 2000 the error rate was nearly 9%.

On Tuesday, a federal judge struck down a Florida law that required welfare applicants to undergo mandatory drug testing.  Republican Governor Rick Scott campaigned on the issue, and got the law enacted, arguing that it would ensure tax money was not going to illegal drugs.  A subsequent state study found that only 108 out of 4,086 people tested, 2.6%, were using narcotics.  The state records show that the program was costing more than it was saving.  Yet several other Republican dominated states have enacted a similar law, and Governor Scott has said the state will appeal the ruling.

The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, has been under attack from Republicans since it before it became law.  House Republicans have voted nearly 50 times to repeal the law.  The ACA, which got off to a terrible start due to problems with the federal website, provides many benefits.  It requires insurers to cover people with preexisting conditions, it ends lifetime or yearly caps on coverage, it makes it illegal for insurers to drop someone because they get sick, and it extends coverage to children under 26.   Most importantly, it gives 40 million uninsured Americans access to health care coverage, and it has already reduced the soaring growth of health care costs.  Yet Republicans do not have a plan to replace any of these benefits should their repeal efforts actually become successful.

Conservative Republicans are opposed to meaningful immigration reform.   There are now more than 11 million immigrants living illegally in the United States.  Hispanics and other minorities, who largely vote for Democrats, have been pushing for legislation to no avail.  Meanwhile, many Republican controlled states have enacted tough voter identification laws, citing massive voter fraud.   But the reported incidents of voter fraud in these states are actually minuscule.  Yet these laws fall disproportionately hard on minorities and the elderly, groups that vote for Democrats.

Following President Barack Obama's reelection and important Republican Congressional loses in the 2012 national elections, GOP Chairman Reince Priebus released an autopsy report assessing the reasons for the party's poor performance.  The findings were blunt.  At one point the report says the voters believe that "the GOP does not care about them and is doing great harm."  

It appears that the report has fallen on deaf ears.