Pepublican Party Chaos

The Republican Party is reeling and stunned as a result of the release of 2005 audio recordings of Donald Trump talking about women using vulgar language.  Many leading Republicans have denounced Trump and withdrawn their endorsements.   Some are calling for Trump to be removed from the ticket.   With a month to go before the presidential election, the GOP is in chaos.  

Vice Presidential nominee Mike Pence and his team are described as "absolutely apoplectic" and "inconsolable" because of Trump's obscene language.  In his appearance at the Vice Presidential Debate, Pence said, "If Donald Trump has said all of the things that you've said he said, in the way you said he said them, he still wouldn't have a fraction of the insults that Hillary Clinton leveled when she said half our supporters were a basket of deplorables."   Pence may have won that battle, but he is about to lose the war because of his deplorable running mate.  Pence should immediately quit the race in order to save his dignity and reputation.  

Unless Trump withdraws it will be difficult and complicated for the Republican Party to remove him from the ticket and replace him on the ballot.  Some Republicans are holding out until they see how he performs in Sunday’s second Presidential Debate.  But even if Trump has a strong performance, how can any Republican member of Congress stand behind him?  There are reports that more tapes of Trump using offensive language will be released soon.  There already have been plenty of anecdotal reports of Trump's bad behavior towards women.  

Loyal Trump supporters are standing by their candidate.  Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani told reporters he wasn't surprised that some Republicans no longer support Trump.   "You look at it, they were all Republicans who all opposed him and didn't support him in the past and this is basically the insiders against the outsiders anyway," he said outside Trump Tower Saturday night.  But the thrice-married Giuliani may not be the best person to make Trump's case.

There are reports that Trump will bring up former President Bill Clinton’s affairs in the debate, and he will again attack Hillary Clinton as an enabler.  But the same could be said for any Republican who supports Trump. 

Trump's crude language towards women is just the latest offense in a long list of embarrassing comments by the New York billionaire.  He has called Mexicans rapists, he called for a ban on Muslims entering the U.S., he forced a sitting president to produce a birth certificate, he mocked a reporter with a disability, he said Senator John McCain was not a hero, he viciously insulted his primary opponents, and he has harshly attacked a many journalists.   Yet, despite all of that he secured his party's nomination and most leading Republicans endorsed him.   Now they are in a panic.

Trump is now toxic, and he made be headed for an historic landslide defeat November 8.  His actions have put many down ballot races in jeopardy for Republicans, and they may lose control of the U.S. Senate.   Simply denouncing Trump and redirecting campaign funds to House and Senate races may not be enough for Republicans to stop the tidal wave.  

Late Saturday, Donald Trump, living in his alternate reality, arrogantly tweeted, “The media and establishment want me out of the race so badly - I WILL NEVER DROP OUT OF THE RACE, WILL NEVER LET MY SUPPORTERS DOWN!’’

Many Republicans are already looking ahead to the 2018 midterm elections, when a large number of Democratic Senate seats will be in play, and the 2020 presidential contest.  But humiliated Republicans will first have to rebuild their party and unite their members.  That will be no easy task.  

On Election Day 2016 the Republican Party will reap what it has sown. 

The GOP Scrum

Thursday's Republican debates among the large field of announced presidential contenders promises to be the summer's premier political event.  And much of the focus is already on Donald Trump, the party's unlikely front-runner, who has surged ahead of his competitors in the polls and will be at the center of the debate stage.  

While Trump is lowering expectations for his performance, "I've never debated," his competitors are busy practicing on how to handle the brash and unpredictable billionaire.  But Trump is a skilled performer who once had a hit network television show.  His campaign has entertained and excited millions of frustrated Republicans who feel let down by their party's establishment.  

Trump will join the nine other contenders in the main event Thursday night, which will be hosted by Fox News.  Each will be prepared to score points with pithy soundbites while attempting to convey a presidential demeanor.  Most of the verbal attacks are likely to be directed at President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democrat front-runner. 

However, the debate moderators, Fox News' Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace, are certain to try to get the candidates to engage with each other.  There is plenty of material to draw on, especially from Trump, who has slammed most of his competitors.  For instance, speaking in an interview with Fox News about former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, he said, "I'm not a big fan of Jeb Bush. The last thing we need is another Bush."  Or about Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, in a speech over the weekend, he said, "Wisconsin is doing terribly."  

By now most of his opponents have learned that direct attacks on Trump are not likely to play well with voters.  Yet, while Trump currently enjoys a wide lead in most polls, he has taken positions in the past that his fellow debaters can exploit.   Former Texas Governor Rick Perry noted, in an interview with Fox News over the weekend, "He's for single payer...How can anyone who's a conservative stand up and say I am for single-payer health care?"  Trump's bombast on illegal immigration launched his campaign, but many Republicans feel he is "mushy" when it comes to what he will specifically do on the issue.   

Nonetheless, handling Trump in Thursday's debate will be challenging, especially for Jeb Bush, who may have the most to lose if he performs poorly.  Although it is very early in the campaign, first impressions can be important.  And, other than his ability to raise an enormous amount of money for his campaign, Bush has stumbled.  Governor Scott Walker will need to make a strong impression too.  While he has pleased conservatives with how tough he has been on the state's unions, he has been weak on foreign policy.  The person with the most to gain is Governor John Kasich of Ohio who, if he makes the cut, is the most experienced candidate at both the state and federal level.  

Some candidates are still dismissing Trump's early success in the polls.  For instance, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie did so in an interview with CNN over the weekend.  "Anybody can do well for a month in this business, especially if you have talent and personality, and Donald has both those things.  Let's see how this goes over the course of time," he said.  Christie should know because his disapproval ratings in New Jersey are at an all time high.  Christie is polling in the middle of the Republican field, and, in seeking to move up, he is sure display his blunt personality at the debate.

On NBC's Meet the Press Sunday, Trump said, “I think I’m a nice person. I really do. And I think that’s why my numbers always go up as they get to know me better."  But he also observed, "I guess my whole life has been a debate in one way."   So Trump has his debate opponents worried and fretting over how to handle him, which is just the way he likes things to be.

Senator Paul on the Attack

Hillary Rodham Clinton is the overwhelming front-runner to be her party's standard-bearer in the 2016 Presidential Election, and the Republicans know it.  Even though she has not announced her intentions, Republicans are already taking political shots at her.  But their personal attacks are shrill and feeble, and reveal a party without a vision for the country.

A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead among likely Democratic presidential candidates.  The former First Lady has been in the national spotlight for more than two decades.  In that time she has been a formidable political presence on the national stage, and has displayed tremendous energy and resilience.  Secretary Clinton enjoys great affection and respect from her loyalists, and endures immense disdain from her detractors.   While she is a polarizing figure, her overall personal favorability ratings are very high.  And her great political skills will make her a strong presidential candidate, should she decide to run.

Republicans fear a Clinton candidacy, in part because they do not have a clear front-runner for their party's nomination.  And nearly half the Americans polled in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party.  Nonetheless, potential GOP candidates are already jockeying for position in the nomination race.

None has been more outspoken than Tea Party favorite Senator Rand Paul (R-KY).  And Senator Rand Paul has focused his most recent attacks on Secretary Clinton.  Paul pushed back on the charges that Republicans are engaged in a "war on women." "The Democrats can't say, 'We're the great defenders of women's rights in the workplace'...when the leader of their party, the leading fundraiser in the country, is Bill Clinton, who was a perpetrator of that kind of sexual harassment," Paul told C-Span, referring to the Monica Lewinsky affair.  He continued, "Someone who takes advantage of a young girl in their office?  I mean, really.  And then have the gall to stand up and say, 'Republicans are having a war on women?'"  He concluded, "Now, that's not Hillary's fault...but it is a factor in judging Bill Clinton is history."

Senator Paul's comments got a lot of attention, no doubt as he had hoped.  It was clearly an effort to dredge up old headlines about the Clinton-era dramas in the White House.   His attack received support from GOP party boss Reince Priebus, who told MSNBC that "everything is on the table."  Priebus explained, "I think we're going to have a truckload of opposition research on Hillary Clinton, and some things may be old, and some things may be new.  But I think everything is at stake when you're talking about the leader of the free world."

Priebus is the man who commissioned an autopsy of the Republican failure to win the White House in 2012.  In announcing the results last year, he said, "The way we communicate our principles isn't resonating widely enough...focus groups described our party as 'narrow-minded,' 'out of touch,' and 'stuffy old men.'"  Well, Mr. Priebus?

But not all Republicans think that Senator Paul's approach is the way to win the White House.  Republican strategist Karl Rove told Fox News, "This can't be 'I want to run for president'-It's got to be about something bigger than that, and frankly Rand Paul spending a lot of time talking about the mistakes of Bill Clinton does not look like a big agenda for the country."  He added, "I'm not certain again that beating up on Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky is a particularly good thing to strengthen your skills for the 2016 contest."

Former Republican congressman and current MSNBC television host Joe Scarborough told his audience he'd “never bring that stuff up in a gazillion years.”  But he did pivot, saying that if Secretary Clinton attacks Republicans as anti-women it's fair game.  “Does this not compromise Hillary Clinton’s ability to bash Republicans as being terrible towards women," he said.

Perhaps that is the ultimate Republican strategy.  But it risks energizing Clinton supporters, alienating independent and women voters, and reinforcing the negative perceptions of the party as "out of touch." 

GOP Traffic Jam

Governor Chris Christie has finally gone on the offensive to defuse "bombshell" revelations that he knew about the Ft. Lee lane closures at the time they were happening.  "The Governor first learned lanes at the George Washington Bridge were even closed from press accounts after the fact," the 700-word email from the governor's office said Saturday.  

The email attacked the press for publishing the story, and attacked the story's source, former New York & New Jersey Port Authority official David Wildstein, who is seeking immunity in the investigation. "Bottom line -- David Wildstein will do and say anything to save David Wildstein," the email said.  But the attack on Wildstein got unusually personal, "He was publicly accused by his high school social studies teacher of deceptive behavior."  Really?  This schoolyard retort reveals a frustrated and desperate man.    

Even if Governor Christie's story stands up through the rigorous legislative and federal investigations the incident has triggered, in the end his 2016 presidential aspirations will be snuffed out.  Questions about the way he ran his office, about the people he surrounds himself with, and his management style will dog him for years.  Conservative Republicans already did not support him for higher office.

So, with Governor Christie out of the mix, the race to be the Republican presidential nominee is wide open.   Whomever they choose will likely face a difficult challenge in the 2016 election. A recent Washington Post poll shows Hillary Clinton has a 6 to 1 lead among Democrats over all other potential candidates for the party's nomination.  Further complicating the Republican's task are the divisions within the party between the Tea Party faction and those who hew closer to the center.

The Hill reported that Florida Senator Marco Rubio is now getting a lot of attention, especially since Representative Paul Ryan said he would not run for the White House in 2016.  "A group of Republican fundraising heavyweights and wise men in Washington's business community are solidly behind Rubio, and see him not only as someone who could win the White House, but someone they can work with," The Hill said.  Senator Rubio, who counts himself a Tea Party member, has had his eye on this prize for some time.  He has recently amplified his positions against President Barack Obama, Obamacare, immigration and education.  Ultimately, his role in the immigration debate will have an important impact on whether he can secure his party's support.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has been outspoken on everything from Obamacare to NSA surveillance.  He is a proud libertarian, and aligns himself with the Tea Party on most issues.  But he has recently made controversial statements, and has been accused of plagiarism for lifting parts of his speeches from Wikipedia.  He may prove to be too independent minded for the ever buttoned down Republican Party.

The Republican Party has several governors who could rise to the challenge; Ohio Governor John Kasich and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker are among the strongest.   But neither has a national profile, and both have taken controversial positions on state issues.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would probably be the favored candidate if he decides to throw his hat into the ring.  Last week Bush said, "I'm deferring the decision to the right time, which is later this year."  A recent Washington Post poll shows him only behind Ryan among Republicans as the favored candidate.  Former First Lady Barbara Bush has said she doesn't believe her son should run.  Despite the fact that he is getting a lot of calls from top Republicans urging him to announce, he seems reluctant.  Should he decide to stay on the sidelines, Marco Rubio will benefit most.

Former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney has been appearing everywhere.  Even though some of his supporters have called for him to run again in 2016, he has said he won't.   His running mate in 2014, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, would be a long shot for obvious reasons, as would former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has thrust himself into the national limelight on issues like Obamacare, immigration and raising the federal debt ceiling.  The Harvard educated and overly ambitious Cruz is distrusted by many of his colleagues, especially Republicans.  His failed tactics led to last year's government shutdown.  His "never in doubt" attitude makes him a polarizing figure in Washington.  While the Canadian born senator is a darling of the Tea Party, it is unlikely that he could win his party's nomination.

At this point, the field of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination is wide open.  Governor Chris Christie's plight may not have altered the outcome of the Republican presidential nominating process, but it sure has led to another major traffic jam.

Trusting Christie

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie could never get elected United States President because it is simply a bridge too far for him.  There was never a way he could outflank conservative Republicans to secure the nomination.  They don't trust him, and now it appears he has given most Americans a good reason not to trust him as well.

Governor Christie and his administration are now under investigation by state and federal officials for possible abuses of power.  The probes were triggered by lane closures on the Ft. Lee, New Jersey, side of the George Washington Bridge, which leads to New York.  The lanes were closed for four days last September and caused major disruptions for commuters, school transportation and emergency vehicles.  Initially officials at the Port Authority, which oversees the bridge, said it was part of a traffic study.  But accusations that it was a retaliatory move against the Democratic mayor of Ft. Lee, who had failed to endorse the governor's November reelection bid, surfaced at the time of the incident.

Earlier this month, the governor claimed no knowledge or involvement in the closures in a news conference.  The governor spoke following disclosures of incriminating email and text messages involving several of his key aides.  On August 13, Christie's Deputy Chief of Staff, Bridget Anne Kelly, sent an email that read, "Time for some traffic problems in Ft. Lee."  The email went to one of Christie's Port Authority appointees, David Wildstein, who was also his childhood friend.  Wildstein responded, "Got it."

At his lengthy news conference, Governor Christie said he was "embarrassed and humiliated" by the poor judgment of his staff.  He announced that Kelly had been fired.  He also said Bill Stepien, a top Christie aide, would step down as a consultant for the Republican Governor's Association, which Christie headed, and would withdraw his bid to become the state's party chairman.   Wildstein and another Christie Port Authority appointee, Bill Baroni, both resigned their positions last December.  Wildstein, who exercised his right not to answer questions before a hearing earlier this month, is reportedly seeking immunity.

At the very minimum, the disclosures surrounding the lane closures at Ft. Lee call into question Governor Christie's personnel judgment.  That's if you believe he didn't know anything despite the fact that so many close to him were involved.  But now fresh disclosures of the governor's apparent abuse of power have raised additional questions about whether there is a pattern.

One Democratic mayor stepped forward to say he was the victim of Governor Christie's strong-arm politics.  He complained that the governor's staff had cancelled a series of important meetings between him and state cabinet officials after he said he would not endorse Governor Christie's reelection.   This weekend the mayor of Hoboken, New Jersey, accused the Christie administration of withholding Hurricane Sandy relief money because she would not go along with fast-track approval of a redevelopment plan they supported.   Meanwhile, federal investigators are looking in to whether Christie's reelection campaign misused funds appropriated for Hurricane Sandy victims.

Governor Christie was thought to be considering a run for the presidency in 2016.  His blunt, aggressive and energetic style has attracted a lot of support among Republicans and independent voters according to national polls.  He has positioned himself as a strong leader, a person who can work with all parties, and a man who can get things done.  Many of his opponents call him bully, political, ambitious and a micromanager.

But some of his strongest opposition comes from within the Republican Party.  Among their most notable complaints is that Governor Christie's embrace of President Barack Obama following Hurricane Sandy hurt Mitt Romney's presidential bid.  Critics accused him of bolstering his own national status at a cost to the Republican Party.   The Conservative Political Action Committee chose not to invite him to speak to their 2013 convention.  At the time their chair said, "Hopefully next year he's back on the right track and being a conservative."

Some Republicans have voiced support for the governor's statements and actions in response to the Ft. Lee lane closures, noting that he took responsibility for what happened.  Nonetheless, the Christie administration is now dealing with 20 subpoenas from state investigators, and more may be on the way.  Those who support the governor are hoping he is not directly linked to the growing scandal.   But for those who have opposed the governor, the scandal is just further evidence that Chris Christie cannot be trusted to be president.