Trump and Sanders: The Odd Couple

Senator Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump each decisively won their party's primary in New Hampshire Tuesday, a result that seemed impossible six months ago.  Now it seems possible that a self proclaimed socialist and a former Democrat turned Republican could face off in the presidential election this coming November.

Trump scored more than a third of those who voted Republican in the primary.  “We learned a lot about ground games in one week, I can tell you,” Trump told supporters in Manchester, N.H., referring to his narrow second place finish in the Iowa Caucus.  While Trump carried both independent and Republican voters, his total votes were less then both Sanders and Hillary Clinton.  But Trump had more than double his nearest Republican opponent, Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Kasich bet the farm on doing well in New Hampshire, and he held more than 100 town meetings in the state.  Kasich, who ran a positive campaign, greeted his supporters in Concord, N.H., with a hopeful message.  “We never went negative because we have more good to sell than to spend our time being critical of someone else,” he said. “Maybe, just maybe, we are turning the page on a dark part of American politics because tonight the light overcame the darkness of American campaigning.”  But it is hard to see how Kasich can win in South Carolina and beyond.  

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was energized by his competitive finish.   “This campaign is not dead. We’re going on to South Carolina,” He told his supporters.  But he will have to do well in the Palmetto State February 20 in order to continue with his campaign.  On the other hand, Texas Senator Ted Cruz told his supporters that he had exceeded expectations in New Hampshire, a state in which he did not poll well.  But Cruz has built a formidable organization in South Carolina, which has a large evangelical population.  While Trump is leading in that state's polls, Cruz is well positioned to overtake him.

The big losers Tuesday were the two candidates who came to verbal blows in Saturday's GOP debate.  Florida Senator Marco Rubio took responsibility for his poor primary performance, telling supporters, “I did not do well on Saturday night … that will never happen again.”  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie tagged Rubio in the debate as a truant, adding, “he simply does not have the experience to be President of the United States and make these decisions.”  But his aggressive debate performance did not propel him into a top five finish among the Republican candidates.

The Democrat contest ended up to be a rout as Sanders won among independents, voters under 30, men and women.  Clinton delivered a rousing concession speech in which she congratulated Sanders, and then asked her audience a rhetorical question.  “Who is the best change-maker?” she said.  The crowd responded, "You are!"  This is a stinging defeat for Clinton, who had hoped to finish much closer to Sanders.  After all, New Hampshire has been good to both she and her husband.  Instead, she felt the "Bern."

For his part, Sanders put together a remarkable organization and mobilized thousands of voters throughout the state.  In his victory speech he told his supporters, “We have sent the message that will echo from Wall Street to Washington from Maine to California, is that the government of our great country belongs to all of the people and not just a handful of wealthy campaign contributors and their ‘super Pacs.’”   

He has also sent a strong message to the Democratic establishment that he can go all the way.  He is building a respectable organization in South Carolina, where he is courting minority voters, and in Nevada he has strong ties to some unions that can help him in that state's caucus.  

That Trump and Sanders both won in New Hampshire Tuesday is all the more remarkable when one thinks that just a few months ago they were both written off as losers.   Now these two native New Yorkers, one from Queens and the other from Brooklyn, one a Democrat turned Republican and the other an independent turned Democrat, have capitalized voter dissatisfaction with government and the Washington establishment.   

Sanders and Trump are the "Odd Couple" of American politics, and, no matter the final outcome, they have each run historic campaigns.   This election has been "yuge!"

Chris Christie's TKO

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie came out swinging in Saturday night's Republican debate.  Florida Senator Marco Rubio looked like he was on the defensive for much of the night trying to protect the momentum he got with his third place finish in Iowa.  Christie easily scored a TKO over the rattled Rubio and was the big winner among the debaters.

In his first response, Rubio introduced a new concept for Republicans that President Barack Obama knows exactly what he is doing.  "Barack Obama is undertaking a systematic effort to change this country, to make America more like the rest of the world," he said.  Appearing next, Christie directed his response directly to Rubio,  "You have not been involved in a consequential decision where you had to be held accountable. You just simply haven't."  Christie wasn't through with Rubio, "And the fact is -- the fact when you talk about the Hezbollah Sanctions Act that you list as one of your accomplishments you just did, you weren't even there to vote for it. That's not leadership, that's truancy."  

Rubio, clearly shaken, threw a counter punch.  "Under Chris Christie's governorship of New Jersey, they've been downgraded nine times in their credit rating," he charged.   "This country already has a debt problem, we don't need to add to it by electing someone who has experience at running up and destroying the credit rating of his state."

Christie demanded to be given a response.  "You see, everybody, I want the people at home to think about this, "Christie said looking into the camera.  "That's what Washington, D.C. Does. The drive-by shot at the beginning with incorrect and incomplete information and then the memorized 25-second speech that is exactly what his advisers gave him."

Rubio had a ready response, "Chris, your state got hit by a massive snowstorm two weeks ago. You didn't even want to go back. They had to shame you into going back."  Christie jumped in, "You know what the shame is -- you know what the shame is, Marco? The shame is that you would actually criticize somebody for showing up to work, plowing the streets, getting the trains running back on time when you've never been responsible for that in your entire life."

Christie got the best of that exchange and went on to have a strong night just days before New Hampshire primary voters go to the polls in what will likely be a record turnout.   His performance is not likely to vault him near the top of the field because so far he has been so far behind.  

The frontrunner in all the state polls is Donald Trump.  His debate performance was strong.  When booed for attacking former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, he noted, "The RNC told us, 'We have all donors in the audience.'" 
When asked what he would do about North Korea's launch of a long range missile, he responded, “I would get on with China, let China solve that problem...They can do it quickly and surgically. That's what we should do with North Korea."  

Bush had his best debate performance, but it is too late to have any impact on Tuesday's primary.   On the other hand, Ohio Governor John Kasich's strong debate performance could help him because he has been doing well in the polls.  He came off as the reasonable and practical conservative, for instance, on immigration.  "I think Congress would pass a plan to finish the border, guest worker, pay a fine, a path to legalization, and not citizenship," he said.  "And we've got to get this done. And I will tell you this, within the first 100 days that I am president, I will put that proposal to the Congress."

Texas Senator Ted Cruz looked like a professional debater, tapping the podium to emphasize points.  He apologized to Dr. Ben Carson for messages his campaign sent out to Iowa Caucus goers as they gathered to vote that Carson was suspending his campaign.   Cruz blamed it all on a CNN report.  Later, CNN took the unusual step of responding, "What Senator Cruz said tonight in the debate is categorically false. CNN never corrected its reporting because CNN never had anything to correct," the statement read.  "The fact that Senator Cruz continues to knowingly mislead the voters about this is astonishing."  Some of his critics charge that Cruz is slimy.

For Ben Carson the evening started off badly because he was nearly stranded backstage when he was introduced.  He went on to have the least response time and said nothing memorable--except noting it was President Ronald Reagan's 105th birthday.

Saturday night's debate was spirited and feisty, as the governors all outperformed the senators.   Afterward, Marco Rubio's staff tried to spin a sow's ear into a silk purse.  Meanwhile, many New Hampshire voters will no doubt consider Governor Christie's words, "I like Marco Rubio, and he's a smart person and a good guy, but he simply does not have the experience to be president of the United States and make these decisions."

Trump at the Crossroads

Donald Trump spent six months saying the reason voters should support him is that he a winner.   That claim was proven false in the first election contest in the 2016 campaign.  Yes, Iowa Caucus goers gave Trump more votes than any other Republican ever in the history of the caucus.  But Trump was not the winner.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, relying on a superb ground game, swept to victory with a record number of caucus votes on the backs of conservative evangelicals.  Cruz deflected Trump's personal attacks, including that he was a liar and not eligible because he was born in Canada, and fought off a last minute surge by Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  Rubio, who exceeded expectations and nearly beat Trump, focused his campaign heavily on large populations areas.

Trump now turns his attention to the New Hampshire primary, which takes place next Tuesday.  Polls show he has a substantial lead over his opponent, but those polls were all taken before his second place finish in Iowa.  A second place finish in the Granite State would be a devastating blow for his campaign.  But Trump, in an attempt to manage expectations, said at a news conference in New Hampshire Tuesday, "Finishing second wouldn't be the worst thing in the world," adding "I'd like to finish first."

However several Republican candidates have spent more time and resources in New Hampshire than Trump.  Ohio Governor John Kasich has built a strong following in that state.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has invested a lot of time in the state, a state he must perform well in to remain viable.  

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has also focused his campaign efforts on a strong showing in New Hampshire.  And Christie wasted no time Tuesday in going after the surging Marco Rubio.  “Unlike some of these other campaigns, I’m not the boy in the bubble,” he said, referring to Rubio. “OK? We know who the boy in the bubble is up here, who never answers your questions, who’s constantly scripted and controlled because he can’t answer your questions. So when Sen. Rubio gets here, when the boy in the bubble gets here, I hope you guys ask him some questions.”   But a Rubio spokesperson quickly struck back.  “No amount of hot air or made-up facts can distract from Chris Christie’s liberal record of supporting Common Core, gun control, abortion rights, Planned Parenthood and Obama’s liberal judicial picks." Joe Pounder said.  "Marco is the only candidate who can unite conservatives and beat Hillary Clinton.”

New Hampshire promises to be an intensely heated contest.  Cruz and Rubio are hoping to capitalize on their Iowa performances in Tuesday's primary.  While they both did well among conservative evangelicals, New Hampshire does not have a large evangelical population to draw upon.   Nonetheless, both candidates will vigorously campaign in hopes of exceeding expectations, and maybe squeaking out a victory.

The Trump campaign is at a crossroads.  The candidate has held no town hall meetings to date, and he has not spent as much time in the state as many of his opponents.  He will need to do more appearances and retail politics in the few days remaining before the primary if he is to maintain his large lead.  More importantly, New Hampshire voters will want more than a celebrity candidate, they will want substance.

That just may be too much to expect from Donald Trump.

The Angry Republican Campaign

Republican presidential candidates are beginning 2016 with a full head of steam in what could be the most critical period for the party in decades.  While Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz currently are leading in the national polls of likely Republican voters, it is hard to predict the final outcome of next month's primaries and caucuses. 

For political junkies, the Republican race has so far been surprising and unpredictable.  Real estate mogul Donald Trump has dominated media coverage and the polls since he announced his candidacy last June.  From the very beginning he has exploited voter anger with caustic and abrasive rhetoric.  Over the weekend he told a cheering Biloxi, Mississippi, audience, “People are so tired of the incompetence. They’re so tired of stupidity.”  Trump has pledged to deport those who are in this country illegally, to build a wall along the Mexican border, and to temporarily stop Muslims from entering this country.

Meanwhile, Senator Cruz has played on voter anger to appeal to populist right voters with wild rhetoric like, "We will utterly destroy ISIS. We will carpet bomb them into oblivion. I don't know if sand can glow in the dark, but we're going to find out."  In Iowa, where he appears to be leading, he has targeted conservative Christians with lines like, "If the body of Christ rises up as one and votes our values, we can turn this country around." 

Voter anger is especially pronounced among Republicans.  A NBC News/Survey Monkey/Esquire on line poll shows that 61% of Republicans "say that current events say that current events irk them more than a year ago." Only 41% of Democrats feel the same way.  

As the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary approaches the large field of Republican candidates has begun attacking each other.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, campaigning in New Hampshire, railed against his opponents in remarks his staff released in advance Monday. “Bluster is not the leadership we crave.  Talking a big game and either not showing up or not knowing how isn’t what we desperately need today.”  Christie's speech was directed at Trump.   “Anger alone is not a solution...America needs leaders who not only identify our problems, but who have the ability to repair our broken system. That’s what this election is all about."  

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, whose disappointing campaign has so far failed to gain traction, attacked Trump in New Hampshire Monday.  "The job is not described in the Constitution as 'entertainer in chief,' or 'commentator in chief,' or even, frankly, 'economist in chief.' It is described as Commander in Chief," he said.  The self-righteous Rubio also observed, "We have Republican candidates who propose that rulers like Assad and Putin should be partners of the United States, and who have voted with Barack Obama and Harry Reid rather than with our men and women in uniform."

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, once thought to be the front-runner, has struggled for support despite being well financed.  He has proven to be a weak candidate, and he is burdened by his brother's legacy, former President George W. Bush.  Even his attack lines sound desperate and feeble. "Just one other thing -- I gotta get this off my chest -- Donald Trump is a jerk," he said at a town hall meeting last month in New Hampshire.  In a Florida town hall meeting in late December he said Trump gets his foreign policy advice from television, "He wakes up in his pajamas and watches the TV shows on Saturday and Sunday."

The Republican campaign has deteriorated into a schoolhouse brawl.  Candidates resort to personal attacks rather than to offering specific and detailed solutions to America's underlying problems.  This is not a campaign of new and exciting ideas; rather it is a misguided crusade that offers voters little hope for those tired of politics as usual.

No wonder so many Republicans are angry.   

Trump Playing Politics With Fear

Fear is a powerful motivator that is sadly all too often exploited by politicians. No one is more adept at doing so than Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Now Trump says he "would certainly implement" a data base for tracking Muslims in the United States.

Trump spoke Thursday in Newton, Iowa, in between campaign events. "I would certainly implement that. Absolutely," he said, "There should be a lot of systems, beyond databases." Later Trump was asked how his plan would differ from the Nazi's requiring Jews to register. "You tell me," Trump responded to a reporter. When asked where he would register Muslims he said, "Different places," not ruling out mosques. "It's all about management," he said. "Our country has no management." He was asked if Muslims would have to be legally obligated to sign into a database, "They have to be--they have to be," he responded.

Trump has often resorted to demagoguery to drive his poll numbers up. But these remarks are the height of religious bigotry and un-American. Ibrahim Hooper, a spokesman for the Council on American-Islamic Relations, told NBC News, "What else can you compare this to except to prewar Nazi Germany." There are 2.6 million Muslims in America, and a bill severely restricting the admission of Syrian refugees into the U.S. has passed the House of Representatives. This action follows terrorist attacks in Paris, Beirut and Egypt that the Islamic State has claimed credit for. ISISmay have embedded terrorists with refugees fleeing into Europe from Syria and Iraq.

The Syrian refugee crisis has become a big issue in the Republican primary. But Trump's plan for a Muslim database intensifies the debate. Friday morning former Florida Governor Jeb Bush called Trump's remarks "just wrong." The GOP presidential candidate told CNBC, "You talk about internment, you talk about closing mosques, you talk about registering people, That's just wrong." He added, "It's not a question of toughness. It's to manipulate people's angst and their fears. That's not strength, that's weakness." But over the weekend Bush told CNN that Christian refugees could be admitted to the U.S. "There are a lot of Christians in Syria that have no place now," he explained. "They'll be either executed or imprisoned, either by Assad or by ISIS. And I think we should have -- we should focus our efforts as it relates to the Christians that are being slaughtered."

Republican presidential candidate Dr. Ben Carson, who has been losing ground in the polls, compared the process of admitting Syria refugees into the U.S. with parents trying to protect their children from a rabid dog. "If there's a rabid dog running around in your neighborhood, you're probably not going to assume something good about that dog," Carson said during a campaign stop in Alabama. "And you're probably going to put your children out of the way. That doesn't mean that you hate all dogs." He said it would be "foolish" to admit Syrian refugees without a thorough vetting process. "We have to have in place screening mechanisms that allow us to determine who the mad dogs are."

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, also a GOP presidential candidate, has been on both sides of the Syrian refugee issue. In February 2014, when compassion was what most Americans were feeling, Cruz supported allowing Syrian refugees into the U.S. "We should continue to do so....We have to continue to be vigilant to make sure those coming are not affiliated with the terrorists, but we can do that." But now that Americans are fearful of terrorists Cruz has changed his stance. "It makes no sense whatsoever for us to be bringing in refugees who our intelligence cannot determine if they are terrorists here to kill us or not," he said. "Those who are fleeing persecution should be resettled in the Middle East in majority Muslim countries."

The White House has said it wants to bring 10,000 Syrian refugees into the United States out of the more than 4 million Syrian refugees who have been displaced by that country's civil war. The vetting process currently in place is rigorous and can take 2 years to complete. The bill that passed the House of Representatives with the support of many Democrats would require that all the nation's top national security agencies sign off on each Syrian refugee.

The president has said he will veto the bill. But President Obama did not dignify himself when he lashed out at Republican members of Congress Wednesday from the Philippines. "We are not well served when, in response to a terrorist attack, we descend into fear and panic," he told reporters. "We don't make good decisions if it's based on hysteria or an exaggeration of risks." A better approach would have been for the president to recognize that Americans have legitimate concerns about terrorism, and to promise to make the refugee vetting process as rigorous as possible.

ISIS has been using anti-Muslim sentiment in the West as a recruiting tool. It has had limited success with young disaffected Americans, and authorities are working hard to keep track of possible terrorists in this country. But Trump's outrageous idea of creating a Muslim database, Carson's ridiculous comparison between Muslims and dogs, Bush's Christian litmus test for Syrian refugees, and Cruz's politicization of the issue are all empowering ISIS.

The terrorist attacks in France were horrific. But Americans should not react out of fear. The great Madame Curie, who spent most of her life in France, once said, "Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."

Jeb Bush's Last Stand?

Perhaps no candidate needed a strong performance in Wednesday's CNBC's Republican Presidential debate more than former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.   However, this one-time front-runner's poor debate performance may have devastating consequences for his struggling campaign.  Once again, Bush often appeared ill at ease and self-conscious, even when he mustered an attack on an opponent.  

Take the sharp exchange over Florida Senator Marco Rubio's poor Senate voting record.  CNBC's Carl Quintanilla raised the issue concluding his question, "Why not slow down, get a few more things done first or least finish what you start?"  Rubio was ready with a well-rehearsed answer, "That's exactly what the Republican establishment says too. Why don't you wait in line? Wait for what? This country is running out of time. We can't afford to have another four years like the last eight years."

Quintanilla pointed out that a Florida newspaper, The Sun-Sentinel, had called on Rubio to resign his Senate seat.  Rubio cited precedents, "Back in 2004, one of my predecessors to the Senate by the name of Bob Graham, a Democrat, ran for president missing over 30 percent of his votes. I don't recall them calling for his resignation."  He then added, "John Kerry ran for president missing close to 60 to 70 percent of his votes...the Sun-Sentinel endorsed him."  He continued,  "In 2008, Barack Obama missed 60 or 70 percent of his votes, and the same newspaper endorsed him again. So this is another example of the double standard that exists in this country between the mainstream media and the conservative movement."  

Bush jumped in, pointing out that the Sun-Sentinel endorsed Rubio for the Senate.  "But Marco, when you signed up for this, this was a six-year term, and you should be showing up to work," Bush asserted. "I mean, literally, the Senate -- what is it, like a French work week? You get, like, three days where you have to show up? You can campaign, or just resign and let someone else take the job."  

But Rubio turned the tables on Bush, sharply responding, "Well, it's interesting. Over the last few weeks, I've listened to Jeb as he walked around the country and said that you're modeling your campaign after John McCain, that you're going to launch a furious comeback the way he did, by fighting hard in New Hampshire and places like that, carrying your own bag at the airport. You know how many votes John McCain missed when he was carrying out that furious comeback that you're now modeling after?"  

Bush's feeble response was brief, "He wasn't my senator."  The man he had mentored had upstaged the former governor.   Bush, who has slipped into the single digits in the polls, needed a strong debate performance, but he failed to deliver.  The top debate performers were Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.  Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson did well enough not to disappoint their followers.

Bush has seemed uncomfortable since the beginning of his campaign.  His body language and frequent gaffes have consistently betrayed a politician who wasn't fully committed.  He has been easily rattled throughout the campaign by taunts from Trump, like calling Bush a "low-energy" candidate.  Last week, Bush expressed his frustration for the current state of partisan politics.  “If this election is about how we’re going to fight to get nothing done, then I don’t want any part of it.”  He continued, “I’ve got a lot of really cool things I could do other than sit around, being miserable, listening to people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them. That is a joke. Elect Trump if you want that.”

The fact that Trump and Carson have such a large lead in recent polls of likely Republican voters strongly indicates that they are looking for an outsider to lead their party to the White House.  Wednesday's debate was a must win for Jeb Bush, an opportunity to prove his critics wrong, to seize momentum by demonstrating he could lead the party to victory next November.  Instead, his puzzling debate performance lacked passion, fight and self-confidence. 

Perhaps Bush was just too preoccupied thinking about all the other cool things he could be doing?

The GOP's Dissonant Campaign

As billionaire Donald Trump unleashes his barrage of sharp attacks on Fox News and its anchor Megyn Kelly, other Republican candidates have improved their chances to gain their party's presidential nomination over the past few days.   Yet, as each of the seventeen announced candidates jockeys for position, Trump still continues to be the center of attention. 

Thursday's prime time debate on Fox News drew a record 24 million viewers, and they saw quite a show.   Fox News anchors Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace asked tough questions and skillfully managed the time among the ten candidates on stage.  While all of their questions were fair, many important subjects were not raised, like climate change, gun violence and voting rights. 

Trump attempted to lower expectations for his performance in advance of the debate.  Many pundits predicted he would not attack his opponents as he has done regularly in his campaign.   Yet, Trump found himself on the defensive from the opening question.

Bret Baier began the debate by asking if all of the candidates would promise not to run as an independent candidate and support the party's nominee.  Trump would not, saying, “I will not make that pledge at this time… I have to respect the person.”  Kentucky Senator Rand Paul chimed in, “This is what’s wrong.  He buys and sells politicians of all stripes…He’s already hedging his bet on the Clintons … He’s already hedging his bets because he’s used to buying politicians.”  Trump smugly responded to Paul, “Well, I’ve given him plenty of money.”

Later, moderator Megyn Kelly grilled Trump on his comments about women.  

“You’ve called women you don’t like 'fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals,'” she said.

“Only Rosie O’Donnell,” Trump interrupted.

“For the record, it was well beyond Rosie O’Donnell,” Kelly retorted.

“Yes, I’m sure it was,” Trump said dismissively.  

Kelly continued, “Your Twitter account has several disparaging comments about women’s looks. You once told a contestant on Celebrity Apprentice it would be a pretty picture to see her on her knees. Does that sound to you like the temperament of a man we should elect as president, and how will you answer the charge from Hillary Clinton, who was likely to be the Democratic nominee, that you are part of the war on women?”
Trump answered, “I think the big problem this country has is being politically correct.” 

Following the debate Trump went to the airwaves and Twitter to attack Kelly's questions as "ridiculous" and "off base."  He told CNN, "You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes...Blood coming out of her wherever." But the comment drew the ire of conservatives, even though Trump later said he meant blood coming out of her nose or ears and nothing more.  Trump added, "Only a deviant would think anything else."  But the conservative group RedState.com withdrew its invitation for Trump to appear at its weekend gathering.  

Trump's attacks on Megyn Kelly only diminish him and makes him look overly defensive.  Meanwhile, he found himself aggressively reassuring his supporters in a round of interviews on the Sunday public affairs shows.  On CBS's Face the Nation, he said, "I will be phenomenal to women."  On ABC's This Week he said, "I have many executives that are women."  And on NBC's Meet the Press he said it would be difficult for women to criticize him, "It's very hard for them to attack me on looks because I'm so good looking."

As Trump struggles to contain the damage from his remarks, several other candidates have made headway in their campaign among conservative Republicans.  Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina was the big winner Thursday even though she appeared in the afternoon debate.  She showed she is ready for prime time and might make a strong vice presidential candidate.  

Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich both did well in Thursday night's debate, and their performances could build real momentum for their campaigns.  Meanwhile, one-time front-runner Jeb Bush did not hurt himself among likely Republican voters with his debate performance, which may be viewed as a victory by those who are supporting him.

The Republican Party conducted an "autopsy" following Governor Mitt Romney's loss to President Barack Obama in 2012.  Its report said, “The Republican Party needs to stop talking to itself. We have become expert in how to provide ideological reinforcement to like-minded people, but devastatingly we have lost the ability to be persuasive with, or welcoming to, those who do not agree with us on every issue.”

Thursday night's dissonant debate once again shows that the Republican party has not changed.  

The GOP Scrum

Thursday's Republican debates among the large field of announced presidential contenders promises to be the summer's premier political event.  And much of the focus is already on Donald Trump, the party's unlikely front-runner, who has surged ahead of his competitors in the polls and will be at the center of the debate stage.  

While Trump is lowering expectations for his performance, "I've never debated," his competitors are busy practicing on how to handle the brash and unpredictable billionaire.  But Trump is a skilled performer who once had a hit network television show.  His campaign has entertained and excited millions of frustrated Republicans who feel let down by their party's establishment.  

Trump will join the nine other contenders in the main event Thursday night, which will be hosted by Fox News.  Each will be prepared to score points with pithy soundbites while attempting to convey a presidential demeanor.  Most of the verbal attacks are likely to be directed at President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democrat front-runner. 

However, the debate moderators, Fox News' Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace, are certain to try to get the candidates to engage with each other.  There is plenty of material to draw on, especially from Trump, who has slammed most of his competitors.  For instance, speaking in an interview with Fox News about former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, he said, "I'm not a big fan of Jeb Bush. The last thing we need is another Bush."  Or about Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, in a speech over the weekend, he said, "Wisconsin is doing terribly."  

By now most of his opponents have learned that direct attacks on Trump are not likely to play well with voters.  Yet, while Trump currently enjoys a wide lead in most polls, he has taken positions in the past that his fellow debaters can exploit.   Former Texas Governor Rick Perry noted, in an interview with Fox News over the weekend, "He's for single payer...How can anyone who's a conservative stand up and say I am for single-payer health care?"  Trump's bombast on illegal immigration launched his campaign, but many Republicans feel he is "mushy" when it comes to what he will specifically do on the issue.   

Nonetheless, handling Trump in Thursday's debate will be challenging, especially for Jeb Bush, who may have the most to lose if he performs poorly.  Although it is very early in the campaign, first impressions can be important.  And, other than his ability to raise an enormous amount of money for his campaign, Bush has stumbled.  Governor Scott Walker will need to make a strong impression too.  While he has pleased conservatives with how tough he has been on the state's unions, he has been weak on foreign policy.  The person with the most to gain is Governor John Kasich of Ohio who, if he makes the cut, is the most experienced candidate at both the state and federal level.  

Some candidates are still dismissing Trump's early success in the polls.  For instance, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie did so in an interview with CNN over the weekend.  "Anybody can do well for a month in this business, especially if you have talent and personality, and Donald has both those things.  Let's see how this goes over the course of time," he said.  Christie should know because his disapproval ratings in New Jersey are at an all time high.  Christie is polling in the middle of the Republican field, and, in seeking to move up, he is sure display his blunt personality at the debate.

On NBC's Meet the Press Sunday, Trump said, “I think I’m a nice person. I really do. And I think that’s why my numbers always go up as they get to know me better."  But he also observed, "I guess my whole life has been a debate in one way."   So Trump has his debate opponents worried and fretting over how to handle him, which is just the way he likes things to be.

GOP Traffic Jam

Governor Chris Christie has finally gone on the offensive to defuse "bombshell" revelations that he knew about the Ft. Lee lane closures at the time they were happening.  "The Governor first learned lanes at the George Washington Bridge were even closed from press accounts after the fact," the 700-word email from the governor's office said Saturday.  

The email attacked the press for publishing the story, and attacked the story's source, former New York & New Jersey Port Authority official David Wildstein, who is seeking immunity in the investigation. "Bottom line -- David Wildstein will do and say anything to save David Wildstein," the email said.  But the attack on Wildstein got unusually personal, "He was publicly accused by his high school social studies teacher of deceptive behavior."  Really?  This schoolyard retort reveals a frustrated and desperate man.    

Even if Governor Christie's story stands up through the rigorous legislative and federal investigations the incident has triggered, in the end his 2016 presidential aspirations will be snuffed out.  Questions about the way he ran his office, about the people he surrounds himself with, and his management style will dog him for years.  Conservative Republicans already did not support him for higher office.

So, with Governor Christie out of the mix, the race to be the Republican presidential nominee is wide open.   Whomever they choose will likely face a difficult challenge in the 2016 election. A recent Washington Post poll shows Hillary Clinton has a 6 to 1 lead among Democrats over all other potential candidates for the party's nomination.  Further complicating the Republican's task are the divisions within the party between the Tea Party faction and those who hew closer to the center.

The Hill reported that Florida Senator Marco Rubio is now getting a lot of attention, especially since Representative Paul Ryan said he would not run for the White House in 2016.  "A group of Republican fundraising heavyweights and wise men in Washington's business community are solidly behind Rubio, and see him not only as someone who could win the White House, but someone they can work with," The Hill said.  Senator Rubio, who counts himself a Tea Party member, has had his eye on this prize for some time.  He has recently amplified his positions against President Barack Obama, Obamacare, immigration and education.  Ultimately, his role in the immigration debate will have an important impact on whether he can secure his party's support.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has been outspoken on everything from Obamacare to NSA surveillance.  He is a proud libertarian, and aligns himself with the Tea Party on most issues.  But he has recently made controversial statements, and has been accused of plagiarism for lifting parts of his speeches from Wikipedia.  He may prove to be too independent minded for the ever buttoned down Republican Party.

The Republican Party has several governors who could rise to the challenge; Ohio Governor John Kasich and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker are among the strongest.   But neither has a national profile, and both have taken controversial positions on state issues.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would probably be the favored candidate if he decides to throw his hat into the ring.  Last week Bush said, "I'm deferring the decision to the right time, which is later this year."  A recent Washington Post poll shows him only behind Ryan among Republicans as the favored candidate.  Former First Lady Barbara Bush has said she doesn't believe her son should run.  Despite the fact that he is getting a lot of calls from top Republicans urging him to announce, he seems reluctant.  Should he decide to stay on the sidelines, Marco Rubio will benefit most.

Former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney has been appearing everywhere.  Even though some of his supporters have called for him to run again in 2016, he has said he won't.   His running mate in 2014, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, would be a long shot for obvious reasons, as would former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has thrust himself into the national limelight on issues like Obamacare, immigration and raising the federal debt ceiling.  The Harvard educated and overly ambitious Cruz is distrusted by many of his colleagues, especially Republicans.  His failed tactics led to last year's government shutdown.  His "never in doubt" attitude makes him a polarizing figure in Washington.  While the Canadian born senator is a darling of the Tea Party, it is unlikely that he could win his party's nomination.

At this point, the field of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination is wide open.  Governor Chris Christie's plight may not have altered the outcome of the Republican presidential nominating process, but it sure has led to another major traffic jam.

Dysfunctional Democrats

Congress is fleeing Washington for their local districts to campaign for the upcoming Midterm elections. But an overwhelming majority of Americans are not likely to vote November 2, despite the fact that the outcome will have serious consequences for them.

Republicans are counting on the Tea Party movement to put them over the top in many key races. They are embracing so-called Tea Party candidates who believe evolution is a myth, float "second amendment remedies" to win back government and talk of repealing the Civil Rights Amendment. "The political class is really dysfunctional," former Florida Governor Jeb Bush observed in an interview on MSNBC. Well governor, if Democratic voters sit out this Midterm election, the young, Hispanic, African American and blue-collar workers, you haven't see anything yet!

Should Republicans gain control of one or both houses of Congress they will set about to dismantle President Obama and all of his legislative achievements. They will work to unwind regulatory reform and oversight so that Wall Street firms and the banking industry can return to their profitable practices of the past.

Republicans will immediately attempt to repeal the historic Affordable Care Act and bring and end to health care reform. That means insurance companies will again be able to set lifetime caps, will be able to deny coverage to children with pre-existing conditions, and will be able to bar parents from keeping their children on their health care policy until they are 26. That also means that more than 30 million uninsured Americans will have no health care coverage, other than the local emergency room. And it means that health care costs will continue to skyrocket for all Americans.

Republicans will bring a halt to stimulus spending, much of which went to help states keep teachers, policemen and firemen employed. And Republicans will attempt to make major cuts in education spending, just at a time when America's students are falling behind many of those in other countries.

How will Republicans turn the American economy around? Start with extending all of the Bush tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of the year. Doing so will add $4 Trillion to the US deficit over the next decade. President Obama proposed not extending the tax break for the wealthiest 3% of Americans, families with more than $250,000 in income, which Republicans opposed even though it would have saved $750 Billion over the decade. Yet the GOP continues to blame Democrats for the deficit. Meanwhile, Republicans have proposed building an expensive missile defense system which would set off another costly arms race with the Russians.

Republicans will roll back more than just banking reform. They will work to overturn government supported environmental regulations and initiatives, as well as efforts to develop alternative fuels. Instead, it will be "drill baby drill." They will also seek to restrict or overturn social reforms, including such controversial issues as immigration, civil rights, "don't ask-don't tell" and Roe vs. Wade. And many Republicans are on record for privatizing Social Security and altering Medicaid and Medicare.

If that is not enough incentive for Democratic voters, GOP control of the House will lead to several expensive committee investigations into a whole range of issues. For instance, whether President Obama was actually born in America, whether the 14th Amendment should be repealed and whether Congressman Joe Sestak was offered a job to stay out of the Pennsylvania senate race.

For sure, President Obama has made some mistakes. But he has also had several meaningful legislative victories. Some in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party are unhappy that President Obama's reform measures did not go further, so they have threatened to sit out the Midterms. This spurred Vice President Joe Biden to ill advisedly call them "whiners." But if these dysfunctional Democrats fail to vote this Midterm, they will only have themselves to blame for the chaos that will ensue to the detriment of the American people.