Friday, November 3, 2017

The GOP Plan: Cut Taxes and then Entitlements

The Republicans proposed a tax reform package Thursday that would, if signed into law, radically alter current tax laws and provide a huge windfall for corporations and millionaires.  It would also add $1.5 trillion to the national debt over 10 years, so Republicans are already eyeing huge cuts in social programs to make up the difference.  It will be a transfer of wealth from the needy to the greedy.  

President Donald Trump stands to be a big winner if the proposed bill passes.  The bill calls for the elimination of the estate tax by 2024.  Trump's estate is worth a little over $3 billion, so this would mean Trump's children stand to inherit well over $1 billion more than they will under current law.  The bill also eliminates the alternative minimum tax, which some individuals are subject to today.  Trump would have paid $30 million less in federal taxes had the AMT been eliminated in time for the 2005 returns.   No wonder the president is pushing Congress so hard to pass this bill.

Corporations are the big winners under the legislation.  They will see their federal tax rate reduced from 35 percent to 20 percent.  Republicans claim that the corporate tax rate is currently the highest in the world.  House Speaker Paul Ryan said Thursday, "With this plan, we are making pro-growth reforms, so that yes, America can compete with the rest of the world."   It should be noted that few U.S. corporations currently have to pay the full rate.  Meanwhile most small businesses, the main driver of jobs in the economy, will not benefit under the GOP proposal.   One special interest group spokesperson described the measure as a "war" on small businesses.

The proposal calls for only three tax brackets in an effort to "simplify" returns.  The top individual bracket, for those with the highest income, is reduced to 35 percent.   The lowest tax bracket goes from 10 percent to 12 percent, with individuals making up to $24 thousand annually paying no taxes.  Nonetheless, the benefits for individual taxpayers will depend on their income, where they live and the type of tax breaks they claim.  For instance, the measure caps the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted from one's gross income.  The bill also ends the electric car tax credit while increasing taxes on wind and solar energy.

Congressional Republicans and the president are desperate for a win after having accomplished nothing legislatively this year, even though they control both houses of Congress and the White House.  So they must succeed with the tax cuts they promised last election or Republicans will be more vulnerable in the 2018-midterm elections.  An ABC/Washington Post poll released Thursday shows that half of all Americans oppose the GOP plan, while 75 percent of Republicans favor it.  Sixty percent of all Americans polled believe the plan favors the wealthy.  Another concern for congressional Republicans is the thin majority they have in the Senate.  To compound matters, Trump's harsh attacks against GOP Senators John McCain, Jeff Flake and John Corker has put the measure in further jeopardy. 

It is estimated that only $300 billion of the $1.5 trillion proposed tax cuts would go to individuals.   Corporations would get $1 trillion in cuts, and heirs to estates would get the remainder, about $200 billion (including the Trumps).  Nonetheless, enactment of the tax cuts will mean Republicans can move on to one of their favorite targets: entitlements.  They will use the exploding debt as a justification for deep cuts in Medicaid and Medicare; only they will call it "reform."  They will propose block grants and caps on the rate of growth.  It will amount to billions of dollars in reductions.  And people in need, especially seniors and the poor, will feel the impact.  

This is the GOP long game, it is consistent with their core philosophy of smaller government, and a win on taxes will give them a head of steam to rein in entitlements.   But to follow the Republican playbook will lead to an even larger disparity between rich and poor Americans.  And the immense income disparity in this country today, the richest nation in the world, is already an inexcusable tragedy!  

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Trump's Moment of Truth Is Coming

President Donald Trump leaves this week for an important 12-day trip to Asia where he will visit Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam and the Philippines.  But most of the president's attention is focused on the special counsel investigation into Russia's role in the 2016 Presidential Election following the indictments of two key Trump campaign officials and the guilty plea of a former campaign adviser.

U.S. intelligence agencies concluded in a report this past January that Russia interfered in the election at the direction of Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to help Trump win. Ultimately, Putin felt that Trump, if elected, would ease crippling U.S. sanctions on Russia that were initially imposed because of Russia's annexation of Crimea.  President Barack Obama imposed additional sanctions last January because of Russia's meddling in the election. 

Trump avoided criticizing Putin throughout his campaign, and, in fact, frequently praised him.  In August, Congress overwhelmingly passed additional sanctions against Russia for its election interference, which Trump signed even though he said he was opposed to the measure.  Of course, he had no choice because Congress would have overridden a Trump veto.

Questions arose throughout the campaign as to whether members of the Trump campaign had colluded with the Russians.  Suspicions heightened when several key members of the Trump campaign failed to report meetings with Russian officials.   Attorney General Jeff Sessions, former national security adviser General Michael Flynn and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner all had to subsequently amend their disclosure forms. 

President Trump has frenetically tried to derail the Russia investigation and clear his name.   One of his first acts in office was to have a private diner with then FBI Director James Comey.  According to Comey, Trump sought Comey's personal loyalty and asked that the FBI director make a statement clearing him.  Comey had been investigating possible collusion between the Russians and the Trump campaign.  On May 9, Trump dismissed Comey and later told NBC News, "When I decided to do it, I said to myself, I said 'you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story, it's an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election that they should have won.'"  Critics immediately declared that Trump had obstructed justice, which is an impeachable offense.

The acting attorney general appointed Special Counsel Robert Mueller to take over the investigation.  Mueller, a Republican, is one of the most highly respected attorneys in Washington, yet he became the target of attacks from the White House.  Three congressional committees have been investigating Russia's role in the election since earlier this year. 


Mueller put together a top team of criminal attorneys and began interviewing witnesses.  Their efforts began to bear fruit this week with the announcement that a grand jury had indicted former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his close associate, Rick Gates.  Manafort and Gates had done millions of dollars in business with Russian oligarchs that they failed to report on their federal tax forms.  Mueller may be using the indictments to squeeze Manafort for more information relating to Russian interference.  

A few hours later, Mueller revealed that Trump campaign foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos had pleaded guilty to perjury.  Papadopoulos admitted that during the campaign he had tried to set up a meeting with Russian officials to obtain Hillary Clinton's "missing" emails in an effort to help the Trump campaign.  At about the same time during the campaign, Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort, and Jared Kushner took a meeting at Trump Tower in New York, which was arranged by Russians seeking to pass on "dirt" about Hillary Clinton.  Mueller has promised Papadopoulos a reduced sentence for his cooperation, and there is speculation that he has plenty more to offer about Trump campaign collusion with the Russians. 


Meanwhile, Trump and White House officials have tried to shift the story to Hillary Clinton for her alleged role as Secretary of State in approving the sale of uranium to a Canadian company controlled by Russians.  The Trump claim is that the Russians donated $145 million to the Clinton foundation in return for her approval.   The big flaw with this charge is that Clinton had no role in making the decision.  

Monday's indictments and guilty plea have many White House officials near panic.  There are internal debates over what the president should do next.  Some Trump allies are urging the president to fire Mueller.  But if he did so he would be inviting congressional Republicans to consider his impeachment.  This would create a constitutional crisis that the nation hasn't seen since Watergate.


Meanwhile, Mueller and his team are continuing to interview witnesses, including White House staff, and more indictments are expected in the near future, according to some reports.  At some point the president may be questioned under oath about what he knows of obstruction of justice and collusion.  The criminal charge for collusion would be conspiracy.  Of course, lying to a grand jury is perjury.  So the president would then be facing his moment of truth.