Chris Christie's TKO

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie came out swinging in Saturday night's Republican debate.  Florida Senator Marco Rubio looked like he was on the defensive for much of the night trying to protect the momentum he got with his third place finish in Iowa.  Christie easily scored a TKO over the rattled Rubio and was the big winner among the debaters.

In his first response, Rubio introduced a new concept for Republicans that President Barack Obama knows exactly what he is doing.  "Barack Obama is undertaking a systematic effort to change this country, to make America more like the rest of the world," he said.  Appearing next, Christie directed his response directly to Rubio,  "You have not been involved in a consequential decision where you had to be held accountable. You just simply haven't."  Christie wasn't through with Rubio, "And the fact is -- the fact when you talk about the Hezbollah Sanctions Act that you list as one of your accomplishments you just did, you weren't even there to vote for it. That's not leadership, that's truancy."  

Rubio, clearly shaken, threw a counter punch.  "Under Chris Christie's governorship of New Jersey, they've been downgraded nine times in their credit rating," he charged.   "This country already has a debt problem, we don't need to add to it by electing someone who has experience at running up and destroying the credit rating of his state."

Christie demanded to be given a response.  "You see, everybody, I want the people at home to think about this, "Christie said looking into the camera.  "That's what Washington, D.C. Does. The drive-by shot at the beginning with incorrect and incomplete information and then the memorized 25-second speech that is exactly what his advisers gave him."

Rubio had a ready response, "Chris, your state got hit by a massive snowstorm two weeks ago. You didn't even want to go back. They had to shame you into going back."  Christie jumped in, "You know what the shame is -- you know what the shame is, Marco? The shame is that you would actually criticize somebody for showing up to work, plowing the streets, getting the trains running back on time when you've never been responsible for that in your entire life."

Christie got the best of that exchange and went on to have a strong night just days before New Hampshire primary voters go to the polls in what will likely be a record turnout.   His performance is not likely to vault him near the top of the field because so far he has been so far behind.  

The frontrunner in all the state polls is Donald Trump.  His debate performance was strong.  When booed for attacking former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, he noted, "The RNC told us, 'We have all donors in the audience.'" 
When asked what he would do about North Korea's launch of a long range missile, he responded, “I would get on with China, let China solve that problem...They can do it quickly and surgically. That's what we should do with North Korea."  

Bush had his best debate performance, but it is too late to have any impact on Tuesday's primary.   On the other hand, Ohio Governor John Kasich's strong debate performance could help him because he has been doing well in the polls.  He came off as the reasonable and practical conservative, for instance, on immigration.  "I think Congress would pass a plan to finish the border, guest worker, pay a fine, a path to legalization, and not citizenship," he said.  "And we've got to get this done. And I will tell you this, within the first 100 days that I am president, I will put that proposal to the Congress."

Texas Senator Ted Cruz looked like a professional debater, tapping the podium to emphasize points.  He apologized to Dr. Ben Carson for messages his campaign sent out to Iowa Caucus goers as they gathered to vote that Carson was suspending his campaign.   Cruz blamed it all on a CNN report.  Later, CNN took the unusual step of responding, "What Senator Cruz said tonight in the debate is categorically false. CNN never corrected its reporting because CNN never had anything to correct," the statement read.  "The fact that Senator Cruz continues to knowingly mislead the voters about this is astonishing."  Some of his critics charge that Cruz is slimy.

For Ben Carson the evening started off badly because he was nearly stranded backstage when he was introduced.  He went on to have the least response time and said nothing memorable--except noting it was President Ronald Reagan's 105th birthday.

Saturday night's debate was spirited and feisty, as the governors all outperformed the senators.   Afterward, Marco Rubio's staff tried to spin a sow's ear into a silk purse.  Meanwhile, many New Hampshire voters will no doubt consider Governor Christie's words, "I like Marco Rubio, and he's a smart person and a good guy, but he simply does not have the experience to be president of the United States and make these decisions."

Trump at the Crossroads

Donald Trump spent six months saying the reason voters should support him is that he a winner.   That claim was proven false in the first election contest in the 2016 campaign.  Yes, Iowa Caucus goers gave Trump more votes than any other Republican ever in the history of the caucus.  But Trump was not the winner.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, relying on a superb ground game, swept to victory with a record number of caucus votes on the backs of conservative evangelicals.  Cruz deflected Trump's personal attacks, including that he was a liar and not eligible because he was born in Canada, and fought off a last minute surge by Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  Rubio, who exceeded expectations and nearly beat Trump, focused his campaign heavily on large populations areas.

Trump now turns his attention to the New Hampshire primary, which takes place next Tuesday.  Polls show he has a substantial lead over his opponent, but those polls were all taken before his second place finish in Iowa.  A second place finish in the Granite State would be a devastating blow for his campaign.  But Trump, in an attempt to manage expectations, said at a news conference in New Hampshire Tuesday, "Finishing second wouldn't be the worst thing in the world," adding "I'd like to finish first."

However several Republican candidates have spent more time and resources in New Hampshire than Trump.  Ohio Governor John Kasich has built a strong following in that state.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has invested a lot of time in the state, a state he must perform well in to remain viable.  

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has also focused his campaign efforts on a strong showing in New Hampshire.  And Christie wasted no time Tuesday in going after the surging Marco Rubio.  “Unlike some of these other campaigns, I’m not the boy in the bubble,” he said, referring to Rubio. “OK? We know who the boy in the bubble is up here, who never answers your questions, who’s constantly scripted and controlled because he can’t answer your questions. So when Sen. Rubio gets here, when the boy in the bubble gets here, I hope you guys ask him some questions.”   But a Rubio spokesperson quickly struck back.  “No amount of hot air or made-up facts can distract from Chris Christie’s liberal record of supporting Common Core, gun control, abortion rights, Planned Parenthood and Obama’s liberal judicial picks." Joe Pounder said.  "Marco is the only candidate who can unite conservatives and beat Hillary Clinton.”

New Hampshire promises to be an intensely heated contest.  Cruz and Rubio are hoping to capitalize on their Iowa performances in Tuesday's primary.  While they both did well among conservative evangelicals, New Hampshire does not have a large evangelical population to draw upon.   Nonetheless, both candidates will vigorously campaign in hopes of exceeding expectations, and maybe squeaking out a victory.

The Trump campaign is at a crossroads.  The candidate has held no town hall meetings to date, and he has not spent as much time in the state as many of his opponents.  He will need to do more appearances and retail politics in the few days remaining before the primary if he is to maintain his large lead.  More importantly, New Hampshire voters will want more than a celebrity candidate, they will want substance.

That just may be too much to expect from Donald Trump.

The GOP's Dissonant Campaign

As billionaire Donald Trump unleashes his barrage of sharp attacks on Fox News and its anchor Megyn Kelly, other Republican candidates have improved their chances to gain their party's presidential nomination over the past few days.   Yet, as each of the seventeen announced candidates jockeys for position, Trump still continues to be the center of attention. 

Thursday's prime time debate on Fox News drew a record 24 million viewers, and they saw quite a show.   Fox News anchors Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace asked tough questions and skillfully managed the time among the ten candidates on stage.  While all of their questions were fair, many important subjects were not raised, like climate change, gun violence and voting rights. 

Trump attempted to lower expectations for his performance in advance of the debate.  Many pundits predicted he would not attack his opponents as he has done regularly in his campaign.   Yet, Trump found himself on the defensive from the opening question.

Bret Baier began the debate by asking if all of the candidates would promise not to run as an independent candidate and support the party's nominee.  Trump would not, saying, “I will not make that pledge at this time… I have to respect the person.”  Kentucky Senator Rand Paul chimed in, “This is what’s wrong.  He buys and sells politicians of all stripes…He’s already hedging his bet on the Clintons … He’s already hedging his bets because he’s used to buying politicians.”  Trump smugly responded to Paul, “Well, I’ve given him plenty of money.”

Later, moderator Megyn Kelly grilled Trump on his comments about women.  

“You’ve called women you don’t like 'fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals,'” she said.

“Only Rosie O’Donnell,” Trump interrupted.

“For the record, it was well beyond Rosie O’Donnell,” Kelly retorted.

“Yes, I’m sure it was,” Trump said dismissively.  

Kelly continued, “Your Twitter account has several disparaging comments about women’s looks. You once told a contestant on Celebrity Apprentice it would be a pretty picture to see her on her knees. Does that sound to you like the temperament of a man we should elect as president, and how will you answer the charge from Hillary Clinton, who was likely to be the Democratic nominee, that you are part of the war on women?”
Trump answered, “I think the big problem this country has is being politically correct.” 

Following the debate Trump went to the airwaves and Twitter to attack Kelly's questions as "ridiculous" and "off base."  He told CNN, "You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes...Blood coming out of her wherever." But the comment drew the ire of conservatives, even though Trump later said he meant blood coming out of her nose or ears and nothing more.  Trump added, "Only a deviant would think anything else."  But the conservative group RedState.com withdrew its invitation for Trump to appear at its weekend gathering.  

Trump's attacks on Megyn Kelly only diminish him and makes him look overly defensive.  Meanwhile, he found himself aggressively reassuring his supporters in a round of interviews on the Sunday public affairs shows.  On CBS's Face the Nation, he said, "I will be phenomenal to women."  On ABC's This Week he said, "I have many executives that are women."  And on NBC's Meet the Press he said it would be difficult for women to criticize him, "It's very hard for them to attack me on looks because I'm so good looking."

As Trump struggles to contain the damage from his remarks, several other candidates have made headway in their campaign among conservative Republicans.  Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina was the big winner Thursday even though she appeared in the afternoon debate.  She showed she is ready for prime time and might make a strong vice presidential candidate.  

Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich both did well in Thursday night's debate, and their performances could build real momentum for their campaigns.  Meanwhile, one-time front-runner Jeb Bush did not hurt himself among likely Republican voters with his debate performance, which may be viewed as a victory by those who are supporting him.

The Republican Party conducted an "autopsy" following Governor Mitt Romney's loss to President Barack Obama in 2012.  Its report said, “The Republican Party needs to stop talking to itself. We have become expert in how to provide ideological reinforcement to like-minded people, but devastatingly we have lost the ability to be persuasive with, or welcoming to, those who do not agree with us on every issue.”

Thursday night's dissonant debate once again shows that the Republican party has not changed.