Biff Trump

Businessman Donald Trump is the Republican Party's presumptive nominee for president,  but can he unite the party?  Now that Texas Senator Ted Cruz has suspended his campaign, can he endorse the man he called a "pathological liar" and "utterly amoral"?  Now that Governor Kasich is suspending his campaign, will the party come together and enthusiastically support its standard-barer?  

In his victory speech Tuesday night, Trump had nothing but praise for the man he only hours earlier called "lying" Ted Cruz.  "He is one tough competitor," Trump said.  "He is a smart tough guy."  But Cruz did not mention Trump's name in his concession speech.  Instead, he positioned himself as the leader of the conservative movement.  "I am not suspending our fight to defend the Constitution, to defend the Judea-Christian values that built America," he said.  "Our efforts will continue and I give you my word that I will continue this fight with all of my strength and all of my ability."

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Preibus is going to have an enormous challenge bringing his party together.  Right after Trump was declared the winner in Indiana Tuesday evening, Preibus tweeted, "@realDonaldTrump will be presumptive @GOP nominee, we all need to unite and focus on defeating @HillaryClinton."  However, the burden of uniting the GOP will fall heaviest on Trump, who told NBC's Today, "I am confident that I can unite much of it."  But he added, "Honestly, there are some people I really don't want.  I don't think it's necessary.  People would be voting for me, they're not voting for the party."

Fortunately for Trump, this is politics, so even his harshest critics within the party will unashamedly put principle aside and endorse him if they believe it helps them in some way.  Who better than the author of The Art of the Deal  to win people over.  But Trump's no holds barred campaign has burned a lot of bridges with large segments of the general population.

For instance, Trump will have to negotiate with Latinos, many of whom he has alienated with his constant attacks on Mexico.  "When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best," he said in his presidential campaign announcement last June.  "They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us.  They're bringing drugs.  They're bringing crime.  They're rapists.  And some, I assume, are good people," he added.  

Latino groups project at least 13.1 million Hispanics will vote this election compared to about 10 million in 2008.  A record 27.3 million Latinos will be eligible to vote, up from 19.5 million eight years ago.  In a recent national poll of Hispanics conducted by Latino Decisions, 79% of the respondents had a very unfavorable opinion of Trump.   This result is ominous because Republican Mitt Romney received only 27% of the Latino vote in his huge loss to President Barack Obama in 2012.  It is hard to believe that Trump could do as well this November as Romney did four years ago.  And Trump will never reach the 37% mark that President George W. Bush received in his contested victory in 2000.   

Women do not like Trump.  According to a Gallup poll released last month Trump had a 70% unfavorable rating with women as compared to a 23% favorable rating.  Trump has made numerous comments that have outraged women.  Of then opponent Carly Fiorina, Trump said, "Look at that face.  Would anyone vote for that?"  Trump also called for women to be punished for getting abortions in an interview with MSNBC in March, but reversed his position after the firestorm he created.  Overall, Trump is going to have to deal with this problem because considerably more women vote in national elections than do men.   And winning only the white male blue-collar vote is not enough to win the presidency.  

In his Trump tirade Tuesday, Senator Cruz pointed out that the Back to the Future character, Biff Tannen, was based on Trump, a "caricature of a braggadocious, arrogant buffoon."   He concluded, "We are looking, potentially, at the Biff Tannen presidency."

You can never count anyone out, least of all Donald Trump.  And November is a long way off, so anything can happen.  However, if the campaign is limited to debates over woman's issues, foreign policy and actual experience with Congress and the executive branch, likely Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton will have the advantage.  

But Trump is unpredictable and unconventional.  And the battlefield is littered with candidates who thought they could beat him.  Guess Donald Trump is no buffoon.   

The Trump-Clinton Landslides

If you can make it in New York -- you will win your party's presidential nomination.  That is the big message following the landslide victories Tuesday by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton.   

Trump trounced his opposition, collecting 60 percent of the Republican primary vote and 89 delegates.  Senator Ted Cruz paid a huge price for mocking "New York values" as he won a mere 14 percent of the vote and zero delegates.  Talk about a Bronx cheer! 

"We don't have much of a race anymore," Trump said in his shorter than usual victory speech Tuesday night at Trump Tower.  As a result of his decisive victory in New York, Trump is all but certain to achieve the required 1237 delegates to win his party's nomination outright on the first ballot at the Republican Convention.  No matter, there is little doubt that he will come close enough to the magic number to fend off any attempts to stop him.  

"The race for the Democratic nomination is in the homestretch and victory is in sight," Hillary Clinton said at her victory rally late Tuesday.  While Hillary Clinton's Democratic victory was nearly as impressive as Trump's, Senator Bernie Sanders was and remains a formidable opponent with a huge passionate following.  Clinton reached out to Sanders' supporters in her remarks, "To all the people who supported Senator Sanders, I believe there is much more that unites us than divides us."

Sanders congratulated Clinton Tuesday night, but told reporters in Burlington, Vermont, "We have a message that is resonating throughout the country."  His explanation for his New York loss was the process.  "Some 3 million New Yorkers were unable to vote (Tuesday) because they had registered as independents, no Democrats or Republicans, and that makes no sense," he said.  

There is no clear path forward for Sanders to the nomination.  Yes, he went from having no name recognition to drawing enormous crowds at his campaign rallies across the country.  Yes, he magically ignited the imagination and support from millions of otherwise disengaged young Americans.  Yes, his progressive voice gave hope to the disenfranchised and the victims of income inequality.  Yes, his anti-Wall Street fervor tapped into a deep-seated frustration in America.  Yes, his anti-war posture reflected the feelings of many in a war-weary nation.   

Sanders has run a brilliant campaign, a campaign that has generated tremendous emotion.  But emotion can hamper clear and practical judgement.  Were Sanders to decide to aggressively continue his attacks on Clinton, especially his negative attacks, he will be playing into the Republican's hands.  He may also make in impossible for some Sanders' supporters to vote for Clinton in the general election.  

On the other hand, Sanders could resume his positive campaigning, speaking out on issues that have shaped his campaign while highlighting his differences with Clinton.   This would be a constructive way to legitimately raise issues without turning his most ardent supporters against Clinton.  And there will come a time in the next few weeks when the Democratic Party will have to unite, just as it did following Barack Obama's nomination in 2008.  

Donald Trump has set his sights on the White House.  He has overcome gaffes,  he has won despite alienating Latinos, Muslims, women, Mexicans, and Fox News anchors.  He has staged a highly entertaining campaign that has drawn enormous crowds, and he has campaigned round-the-clock on Twitter.   Several times Trump has defied pundit predictions of his demise, most recently following his defeat in Wisconsin.  He has done so because he has tapped into the frustrations of millions of Americans who believe Trump is the one who will "make America great again," even though Trump has offered little in the way of details.  

Trump has proven to be a fierce and wily politician who will pose a tremendous challenge for Hillary Clinton.   And he has already started using his "crooked" Hillary Clinton line at rallies.   Trump has already begun to unify the GOP, even though many Republicans don't trust him.   

Yes, presidential candidate Donald Trump will be unpredictable and challenging in the general election.  But he will be near impossible to beat if the Democratic Party is divided, and Sanders' supporters stay home.  Then everything that Sanders believed in will be lost, and decades of progress for progressives will be deleted from history.  

Ted Cruz: TrusTed?

The day after he won the South Carolina primary, Donald Trump was a gracious victor.  "Look, I'm dealing with very, very talented people, smart people, good people and you know, I think they'll be competing," he said Sunday on CBS's Face the Nation.  But in an appearance on ABC's This Week, Trump disparaged Senator Ted Cruz's campaign. "I said to myself, wow, this is a tough business," he asserted, "These people are worse than Manhattan real estate developers."

For his part, Cruz, the third place finisher, said he was the victim of character attacks.  "There's no doubt that both Donald and Marco (Rubio) got very personal, got very nasty," he charged on Face the Nation.  "They scream liar, liar, liar.  They impugn your integrity...and from the beginning of this campaign, nearly a year now, I have consistently refused to respond in kind," he continued. 

But the Cruz campaign may have taken politics to a new low this election.  His campaign team spread word, just as the Iowa Caucuses were beginning, that candidate Ben Carson was going to drop out of the race.   Cruz disingenuously blamed the incident on a CNN report, but Carson called on him to fire his campaign staffers who were responsible for the misinformation.  Of course, Cruz did not do so, but he did win the Iowa Caucus. 

A strong finish for Cruz in South Carolina was critical to his nomination strategy.  However, leading up to the contest Trump led in the polls and Senator Marco Rubio was gaining momentum.  The Cruz campaign pulled out all the stops.  South Carolina Representative Trey Gowdy accused the Cruz super PAC of creating a Facebook page that made it appear Gowdy had retracted his Rubio endorsement.  Further, Rubio's campaign accused Cruz's operatives on Saturday of robocalling voters that Rubio was dropping out. However, this claim has not been confirmed.

The Cruz campaign did put out mailers, with a picture joining Rubio and President Obama's face as one, saying they both support trade legislation.  And Cruz accused Rubio of employing aides who are supportive of gay marriage.  Nonetheless, Rubio eked out a second place finish Saturday.

Cruz campaign also attacked frontrunner Donald Trump.  The Cruz PAC assailed Trump for supporting the removal of the Confederate flag from South Carolina state grounds.  They sent out a robocall charging Trump was too supportive of LGBT rights.  In the call, the narrator says, "It's about mandatory celebration.  It's about forcing people to bake cakes and photograph gay weddings.  Forcing clergy to officiate.  It's about transgender bathrooms in your child's schools.  It's about tearing down our Judeo-Christian values.  It's about tearing down America."  

Cruz has attacked Trump on the campaign trail for supporting Obamacare, even though Trump has consistently vowed to repeal and replace the law.   And Cruz attacked Trump for supporting Planned Parenthood, a favorite target of conservatives.   Trump explained his position in the last Republican debate.  "It does wonderful things, but not as relates to abortion."  He added, "There are wonderful things having to do with women's health."   

According to the South Carolina exit polls, Trump won 78% of those voters who chose a candidate who "tells it like it is."  Trump also won a plurality of the evangelical vote, a category Cruz was expected to win.

Cruz took the high road Sunday morning when reacting to his disappointing third place finish in South Carolina.  "I'm not going to impugn anyone's integrity.  I'm not going to attack their character," he said on Face the Nation.  "And, in fact, I will happily praise both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio as men who I admire, as people who I am not going to go personal with."

Sure, Senator Cruz.

Antonin Scalia and Politics

Antonin Scalia was one of the most influential and consequential justices in the history of the U.S. Supreme Court. Appointed by President Ronald Reagan in 1986, he was the intellectual anchor for today's conservative movement. His sudden death was a shock to all Americans, especially Republicans, who immediately assumed their battle positions.

The U.S. Constitution specifies (Article II, Section 2) that the president, "shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law." Certainly a strict constitutional originalist like Scalia would have agreed that a president with eleven months left in office has the right to nominate someone for the Supreme Court.

Shortly after word of Scalia's death, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who decides what the Senate takes up, said in a statement that President Barack Obama should not nominate a replacement. "The American people‎ should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice," he said. "Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new President."

This unprecedented message was followed by similar warnings from Republican presidential candidates. Texas Senator Ted Cruz took to Twitter, saying, "Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement." Florida Senator Marco Rubio also said Obama should not nominate a replacement. "The next president must nominate a justice who will continue Justice Scalia's unwavering belief in the founding principles that we hold dear," he said in a statement.

Justice Scalia's death dominated the early portion of Saturday's Republican debate in South Carolina. Minutes before the debate, which aired on CBS, President Obama expressed his condolences to Scalia's family while praising the jurist's "remarkable" life. Then the president said, "I plan to fulfill my constitutional responsibilities to nominate a successor in -- due time." He continued, "There will be plenty of time for me to do so, and for the Senate to fulfill its responsibility to give that person a fair hearing and a timely vote."

The president's comments were fuel for an over-heated and feisty debate atmosphere. Donald Trump warned Senate Republicans to "delay, delay, delay." Cruz said that, "the Senate needs to stand strong and say we're not going to give up the Supreme Court for a generation." Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush called for a "consensus pick," which would be almost impossible to find with a deeply divided Congress.

Republicans feel they own the Scalia court position. Their comments and actions are consistent with the partisan war they have been waging in Washington from the day President Obama was first sworn in to office. For nearly eight years now the first instinct for Republicans in Congress has been to obstruct, block and divide. This, no doubt, plays well with certain segments of the Republican Party. But such tactics have demoralized much of the electorate and have probably led to the rise of Donald Trump.

Why didn't McConnell simply say that should the president offer a nomination, as is his right under the Constitution, the Senate would take it up? After all, the same American people who McConnell says should have a voice twice overwhelmingly reelected President Obama to office. Furthermore, the Constitution does not say the president shall appoint unless he has less than a year left in office.

Republicans would be far wiser to agree to let the process take its course and then focus their attention on defeating the president's nominee in the Senate. This is what the Founding Fathers had in mind when they wrote the rules.

What an appropriate way this would be for Republicans to remember the man who they consider to be the greatest defender of the U.S. Constitution.

Trump and Sanders: The Odd Couple

Senator Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump each decisively won their party's primary in New Hampshire Tuesday, a result that seemed impossible six months ago.  Now it seems possible that a self proclaimed socialist and a former Democrat turned Republican could face off in the presidential election this coming November.

Trump scored more than a third of those who voted Republican in the primary.  “We learned a lot about ground games in one week, I can tell you,” Trump told supporters in Manchester, N.H., referring to his narrow second place finish in the Iowa Caucus.  While Trump carried both independent and Republican voters, his total votes were less then both Sanders and Hillary Clinton.  But Trump had more than double his nearest Republican opponent, Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Kasich bet the farm on doing well in New Hampshire, and he held more than 100 town meetings in the state.  Kasich, who ran a positive campaign, greeted his supporters in Concord, N.H., with a hopeful message.  “We never went negative because we have more good to sell than to spend our time being critical of someone else,” he said. “Maybe, just maybe, we are turning the page on a dark part of American politics because tonight the light overcame the darkness of American campaigning.”  But it is hard to see how Kasich can win in South Carolina and beyond.  

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was energized by his competitive finish.   “This campaign is not dead. We’re going on to South Carolina,” He told his supporters.  But he will have to do well in the Palmetto State February 20 in order to continue with his campaign.  On the other hand, Texas Senator Ted Cruz told his supporters that he had exceeded expectations in New Hampshire, a state in which he did not poll well.  But Cruz has built a formidable organization in South Carolina, which has a large evangelical population.  While Trump is leading in that state's polls, Cruz is well positioned to overtake him.

The big losers Tuesday were the two candidates who came to verbal blows in Saturday's GOP debate.  Florida Senator Marco Rubio took responsibility for his poor primary performance, telling supporters, “I did not do well on Saturday night … that will never happen again.”  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie tagged Rubio in the debate as a truant, adding, “he simply does not have the experience to be President of the United States and make these decisions.”  But his aggressive debate performance did not propel him into a top five finish among the Republican candidates.

The Democrat contest ended up to be a rout as Sanders won among independents, voters under 30, men and women.  Clinton delivered a rousing concession speech in which she congratulated Sanders, and then asked her audience a rhetorical question.  “Who is the best change-maker?” she said.  The crowd responded, "You are!"  This is a stinging defeat for Clinton, who had hoped to finish much closer to Sanders.  After all, New Hampshire has been good to both she and her husband.  Instead, she felt the "Bern."

For his part, Sanders put together a remarkable organization and mobilized thousands of voters throughout the state.  In his victory speech he told his supporters, “We have sent the message that will echo from Wall Street to Washington from Maine to California, is that the government of our great country belongs to all of the people and not just a handful of wealthy campaign contributors and their ‘super Pacs.’”   

He has also sent a strong message to the Democratic establishment that he can go all the way.  He is building a respectable organization in South Carolina, where he is courting minority voters, and in Nevada he has strong ties to some unions that can help him in that state's caucus.  

That Trump and Sanders both won in New Hampshire Tuesday is all the more remarkable when one thinks that just a few months ago they were both written off as losers.   Now these two native New Yorkers, one from Queens and the other from Brooklyn, one a Democrat turned Republican and the other an independent turned Democrat, have capitalized voter dissatisfaction with government and the Washington establishment.   

Sanders and Trump are the "Odd Couple" of American politics, and, no matter the final outcome, they have each run historic campaigns.   This election has been "yuge!"

The Fox News Debate

Donald Trump won Thursday night's Republican debate by not participating, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz failed to capitalize on Trump's absence. Meanwhile, it is unlikely that the debate, hosted by Fox News, will have an impact on Monday's Iowa Caucus. 

If you missed the first couple minutes of the debate you missed Cruz's best moment. Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly asked Cruz about "the elephant not in the room," referring to Trump's absence. "Let me say I'm a maniac and everyone on stage is stupid, fat and ugly. And Ben (Carson), you're a terrible surgeon," Cruz responded. "Now that we've gotten the Donald Trump portion out of the way," he said as the audience laughed. 

The bad news for Cruz was that because Trump wasn't present to take incoming from all the challengers, Cruz became the target of attacks from most of the other candidates. Cruz found himself in a defensive posture, which is a position he clearly hates to be in. That may explain his Trump-like whining answer directed at Fox News anchor Chris Wallace. "Chris, I would note that that the last four questions have been, 'Rand, please attack Ted. Marco, please attack Ted. Chris, please attack Ted. Jeb, please attack Ted,'" he complained. "Gosh, if you guys ask one more mean question I may have to leave the stage." Cruz's feeble attempt at humor seemed more like an unforced error.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, whose answers mostly seemed pre-planned, and whose tone was mostly self-righteous, seized on the Cruz bobble in a subsequent response. "Don't worry, I'm not leaving the stage no matter what you ask me," he said to Wallace, who then said, "Good." Rubio, who trails in recent polls of likely Iowa Caucus goers, clearly targeted Cruz's strong support among evangelical Christian conservatives. "When I'm president, I can tell you this, my faith will not just influence the way I'll govern as president, it will influence the way I live my life," Rubio said. "Because in the end, my goal is not simply to live on this earth for 80 years, but to live an eternity with my creator. And I will always allow my faith to influence everything I do."

But Rubio, who put on a strong performance, found himself extremely vulnerable on the issue of immigration. Moderator Kelly asked Rubio, "Within two years of getting elected you were co-sponsoring legislation to create a path to citizenship, in your words, amnesty. Haven't you already proven that you cannot be trusted on this issue?" Rubio protested, "No, I said I do not support blanket amnesty!" But former Florida Governor Jeb Bush piled on. "I'm kind of confused because he was the sponsor of the Gang of Eight bill that did require a bunch of thresholds but ultimately allowed for citizenship over an extended period of time. I mean, that's a fact. And he asked me to support that. And I -- I supported him because I think people, when you're elected, you need to do things," Bush observed.

Cruz also found himself vulnerable on the immigration issue. Kelly asked him, "When Senator Rubio proposed that bill creating a path to citizenship, you proposed an amendment. It would have allowed for legalization but not citizenship.... Pressed last month on why you supported legalization, you claimed that you didn't. Right?" Cruz strained for an answer, "You know, the amendment you're talking about is one sentence -- it's 38 words...it said anyone here illegally is permanently ineligible for citizenship. It didn't say a word about legalization." But then Kelly noted, "But the bill allowed both. The bill you were amending allowed citizenship and legalization." 

Senator Rand Paul, who had a pretty good night, jumped in on the immigration discussion. "I was there and I saw the debate. I saw Ted Cruz say, 'we'll take citizenship off the table, and then the bill will pass, and I'm for the bill.'" he asserted. "The bill would involve legalization. He can't have it both ways. But what is particularly insulting, though, is that he is the king of saying, 'you're for amnesty.' Everybody's for amnesty except for Ted Cruz." This set up Rubio's best line of the night. "This is the lie that Ted's campaign is built on, and Rand touched upon it -- that he's the most conservative guy, and everyone else is a -- you know, everyone else is a rhino." Rubio said. "The truth is, Ted, throughout this campaign, you've been willing to say or do anything in order to get votes."

Meanwhile, a few miles away Donald Trump hosted a fundraiser for the military veterans. Trump told the enthusiastic audience of 1,500 he would rather have been at the debate but he had to stand up for principle. In a surprise, Republican candidates Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who had just finished the "undercard" GOP debate, dropped in on the Trump gathering in support the veterans. Trump claims to have raised about $6 million through the event.

There is no question that by ducking the debate Trump avoided being the target of strong attacks from his opponents, all of whom would have wanted to take down the frontrunner. Instead, Cruz became the target for many attacks and he did not have a very good night. Ironically, Bush had his best debate performance in large part because Trump wasn't there to make him anxious.

This debate, coming just three days before the Iowa Caucus, could have been a pivotal moment for each candidate. Cruz needs to win in Iowa to stop Trump's momentum. Success in the caucus depends on his ability to mobilize his supporters. But Cruz did not help himself with his uneven debate performance, and Trump did not hurt himself by not attending. In fact, Marco Rubio may have helped himself to some of Cruz's supporters. Stay tuned!

Cruz Unsettled

Texas Senator Ted Cruz's presidential bid has been gaining momentum in the all-important Iowa Caucus scheduled to take place February 1.   But now Donald Trump has focused his attention on Cruz's Canadian birth in an effort to undercut the senator's campaign.  "Ted Cruz has a problem," Trump told a rally Monday in Windham, New Hampshire.  "I mean, he's got a problem."

Trump, in an effort to win in Iowa, is now hammering away at whether Cruz qualifies to be U.S. President under the Constitution.  Article II of the Constitution specifies,  "No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President."  Central to the question of Cruz's eligibility is the definition of a "natural born citizen." 

Up to now Cruz has dismissed the issue as "settled law."  The senator admits he was born in Canada to his father, Rafael Cruz, who was a Canadian citizen at the time of his son's birth in 1970, and to his mother, who was born in Delaware.  Cruz, a lawyer, says he qualifies because his mother was an American and that he is therefore a natural born citizen.  

But Harvard's Laurence Tribe, a leading Constitutional scholar, says the matter is not settled.  "There’s a huge irony about the way Cruz interprets the Constitution," Tribe said in an email to the Huffington Post. "When it wouldn’t hurt him or things he cares deeply about, he insists on interpreting it the way he believes the Founding Generation intended it -- as what people call an 'originalist.' But to a true originalist, as the best scholarship on this topic has shown, a 'natural born citizen' would exclude someone like Ted Cruz because of his Canadian birth."

In an opinion piece in Monday's Boston Globe Tribe wrote,  "When Cruz was my constitutional law student at Harvard, he aced the course after making a big point of opposing my views in class — arguing stridently for sticking with the 'original meaning' against the idea of a more elastic 'living Constitution' whenever such ideas came up."  Tribe pointed out, "In truth, the constitutional definition of a “natural born citizen” is completely unsettled, as the most careful scholarship on the question has concluded.   Needless to say, Cruz would never take Donald Trump’s advice to ask a court whether the Cruz definition is correct, because that would in effect confess doubt where Cruz claims there is certainty."

Cruz's strongest supporter in Iowa, conservative Congressman Steve King, has been a leading voice in the birther movement that claims President Barack Obama is not a citizen, even though the president's mother was an American.  In 2012, Cruz's father was quoted as saying on a video, “We need to send Barack Obama back to Chicago. I’d like to send him back to Kenya, back to Indonesia.”  

Senator John McCain was born in Panama.  To avoid any questions about his citizenship when he ran for president in 2008, the senate passed "A resolution recognizing that John Sydney McCain, III, is a natural born citizen."  Members of the Senate were clearly was concerned questions could arise about McCain's qualifications even though he was born on a U.S. military base to an American father and mother.  And, given how  his colleagues view Cruz, it is not likely the Senate will do the same favor for him.  In fact, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the man Cruz called a liar on the floor of the Senate, has said he does not want to talk about the issue. 

Trump told the New Hampshire rally, "Whether you like it or not, Ted has to figure it out. Because we can't be having a nominee — if he got the nod, I think I'm going to win very solidly, if you want to know the truth — but, if you get the nomination, you can't have the person who gets the nomination be sued."  Sure enough, Florida Representative Alan Grayson told the Huffington Post last week he would sue if officials certified Cruz's eligibility.  "All that Cruz has done is wave his hands in the air and claimed that it's settled law when it's not," Grayson said.  

Despite his best efforts to brush this issue off, all of this has to be unsettling for Ted Cruz.  Perhaps he can reach out to President Obama for some advice.  Or perhaps he can simply jump the shark.

The Angry Republican Campaign

Republican presidential candidates are beginning 2016 with a full head of steam in what could be the most critical period for the party in decades.  While Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz currently are leading in the national polls of likely Republican voters, it is hard to predict the final outcome of next month's primaries and caucuses. 

For political junkies, the Republican race has so far been surprising and unpredictable.  Real estate mogul Donald Trump has dominated media coverage and the polls since he announced his candidacy last June.  From the very beginning he has exploited voter anger with caustic and abrasive rhetoric.  Over the weekend he told a cheering Biloxi, Mississippi, audience, “People are so tired of the incompetence. They’re so tired of stupidity.”  Trump has pledged to deport those who are in this country illegally, to build a wall along the Mexican border, and to temporarily stop Muslims from entering this country.

Meanwhile, Senator Cruz has played on voter anger to appeal to populist right voters with wild rhetoric like, "We will utterly destroy ISIS. We will carpet bomb them into oblivion. I don't know if sand can glow in the dark, but we're going to find out."  In Iowa, where he appears to be leading, he has targeted conservative Christians with lines like, "If the body of Christ rises up as one and votes our values, we can turn this country around." 

Voter anger is especially pronounced among Republicans.  A NBC News/Survey Monkey/Esquire on line poll shows that 61% of Republicans "say that current events say that current events irk them more than a year ago." Only 41% of Democrats feel the same way.  

As the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary approaches the large field of Republican candidates has begun attacking each other.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, campaigning in New Hampshire, railed against his opponents in remarks his staff released in advance Monday. “Bluster is not the leadership we crave.  Talking a big game and either not showing up or not knowing how isn’t what we desperately need today.”  Christie's speech was directed at Trump.   “Anger alone is not a solution...America needs leaders who not only identify our problems, but who have the ability to repair our broken system. That’s what this election is all about."  

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, whose disappointing campaign has so far failed to gain traction, attacked Trump in New Hampshire Monday.  "The job is not described in the Constitution as 'entertainer in chief,' or 'commentator in chief,' or even, frankly, 'economist in chief.' It is described as Commander in Chief," he said.  The self-righteous Rubio also observed, "We have Republican candidates who propose that rulers like Assad and Putin should be partners of the United States, and who have voted with Barack Obama and Harry Reid rather than with our men and women in uniform."

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, once thought to be the front-runner, has struggled for support despite being well financed.  He has proven to be a weak candidate, and he is burdened by his brother's legacy, former President George W. Bush.  Even his attack lines sound desperate and feeble. "Just one other thing -- I gotta get this off my chest -- Donald Trump is a jerk," he said at a town hall meeting last month in New Hampshire.  In a Florida town hall meeting in late December he said Trump gets his foreign policy advice from television, "He wakes up in his pajamas and watches the TV shows on Saturday and Sunday."

The Republican campaign has deteriorated into a schoolhouse brawl.  Candidates resort to personal attacks rather than to offering specific and detailed solutions to America's underlying problems.  This is not a campaign of new and exciting ideas; rather it is a misguided crusade that offers voters little hope for those tired of politics as usual.

No wonder so many Republicans are angry.   

Immigration By The Numbers

The immigration issue has roiled the Republican Party as its presidential candidates attempt to appeal to the conservative, anti-immigration wing of their party in order to win their party's nomination.  But the GOP is going to pay a heavy toll in the 2016 national elections.  

Businessman Donald Trump fired the opening salvo last June when he announced he would run for president.  "When Mexico sends its people they're not sending their best," he said. "They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us.  They're bringing drugs.  They're bringing crime.  They're bringing rapists.  And some, I assume, are good people."  Trump has proposed building a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico (with a nice door) and promises he will get Mexico to pay for it.   

Trump raised the stakes this past Wednesday on MSNBC when he said, "You're going to have a deportation force, and you're going to do it humanely."  But he has yet to offer any specific details on how he will send an estimated 11 million undocumented workers out of the country.  It is hard to picture a "deportation force" humanely separating a Latino mother from her American born children.   

Nonetheless, Trump's position on immigration has resonated with party members.  In a national poll published in Roll Call, 49% of those identifying themselves as Republican agreed that Trump would best handle the immigration issue.  Trump's percent was five times higher than the second place finisher, Sen. Marco Rubio.  Trump has been so successful exploiting immigration to the Republican Party base that Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz are now publicly quibbling over each other's prior positions on the issue.  

The Republican National Committee following Gov. Mitt Romney’s loss in the 2012 national election identified immigration as a critical issue.   Romney had received just 23% of the Latino vote in his defeat.  By contrast, President George W. Bush received 44% of the Latino vote in his 2004 re-election.  The RNC released an autopsy report in early 2013 that called on Republicans to reach out to Latinos.  "Among the steps Republicans take in the Hispanic community and beyond, we must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform," the report stated. "If we do not, our Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only. We also believe that comprehensive immigration reform is consistent with Republican economic policies that promote job growth and opportunity for all."

Many Republican strategist have amplified this position.  Steve Schmidt, who ran Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign in 2008, has observed, "The long-term problem for Republicans is that in every demographic that is growing in the country, Democrats are gaining market share," he said last year in the Los Angeles Times, and "in every demographic group in the country that is shrinking, Republicans are gaining market share."

Romney beat President Barack Obama by 20% among white voters according to exit polls.  A Gallup Poll, released just ahead of the GOP autopsy report, showed that Non-Hispanic whites made up 89% of Republican self-identifiers, while Hispanics were only 6% of that group.   The problem for the Republican Party is that the Non-Hispanic white population is shrinking.  Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that here are more than 55 million Hispanics and their number is growing.  

The GOP may think that Senators Rubio and Cruz, both Cuban Americans, can help the party appeal to more Latinos, but each of their stands on immigration has hurt them among this voting segment.  Further, nearly 65% of the Latino population is Mexican American, while only 4% is Cuban American, and most live in Florida.  Nationally Latinos, especially Mexican Americans, prefer Democrats over Republicans.  And 81% of Latinos believe that unauthorized immigrants should not be deported.  As Gov. Rick Perry once said, "Oops."

Donald Trump's talk of a border wall and deportation squads may play well with conservatives in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, but it has seriously damaged the Republican brand with most Latinos.   It is likely that the Republican candidate will have to receive 40% of the Latino vote in order to be elected president.   

So don't count on the ultimate GOP standard bearer to maintain the hard-line position on immigration in the general election that was needed to win the nomination.   For instance, over the last few years both Rubio and Cruz have each changed their prior position on immigration for political expediency.   

Unless, of course, that nominee is Donald Trump.  Then who knows what will happen?  Except it will be humane and huge!

Senator Ted Cruz

Republican Texas Senator Ted Cruz has announced his candidacy for President of the United States. While critics, including some in his own party, dismiss him, Cruz is a smart, shrewd and brash politician. He is also arrogant, self-confident and power-hungry. Cruz recently told Fox News host Sean Hannity that his critics call him "crazy." Well?

In September 2013, Senator Cruz spoke in opposition of the inclusion of the Affordable Care Act in a continuing resolution to fund the government. His faux-filibuster lasted more than 21 hours, and he opened with, "I rise today in opposition to Obamacare." Then, after being recognized, he said he would speak "until I am no longer able to stand." His effort was not a filibuster because the Senate had already scheduled its cloture vote. But the Cruz show went on, including reading from the Dr. Seuss's classic, Green Eggs and Ham. His daughters watched from home on C-Span as he read from the book, “You do not like green eggs and ham?”

But Cruz was so angry with Republican supporters of the Senate vote he played the appeasement card in his rant from the Senate floor. "If you go to the 1940s, Nazi Germany," Cruz said. "Look, we saw in Britain, Neville Chamberlain, who told the British people, 'Accept the Nazis. Yes, they'll dominate the continent of Europe but that's not our problem. Let's appease them. Why? Because it can't be done. We can't possibly stand against them.'"

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) was furious with Cruz's remarks. "I resoundingly reject that allegation," McCain said. "That allegation, in my view, does a great disservice. A great disservice to those brave Americans and those who stood up and said, 'what's happening in Europe cannot stand.'"

Mr. Cruz became one of the architects of the 2013 government shutdown that ran from October 1 to October 16. As many as 800,000 government employees were furloughed and another 1.3 million had to work without pay. It is estimated that the shutdown cost the U.S. economy at least $12 billion. Representative Peter King (R-NY) reacted brusquely to Cruz's presidential announcement. "Shutting down the federal government and reading Dr. Seuss on the Senate floor are the marks of a carnival barker not the leader of the free world," King said in a statement.

Unapologetic, Cruz has continued his relentless attacks Obamacare. So it was ironic that Cruz made this announcement Tuesday: "We'll be getting new health insurance and we'll presumably do it through my job with the Senate, and so we'll be on the federal exchange with millions of others on the federal exchange." Because Cruz's wife was taking a leave of absence from her banking job at Goldman Sachs the family will no longer be covered by their health plan. But his spokesman said Senator Cruz wouldn't take the government contribution he is entitled to as a member of Congress under the ACA.

Senator Cruz, a Harvard educated lawyer and Princeton debate champion, is quick to come up with a witty quip. For instance, when the White House announced its support for net-neutrality. "In short, net neutrality is Obamacare for the Internet," he said. "It would put the government in charge of determining Internet pricing, terms of service and what types of products and services can be delivered, leading to fewer choices, fewer opportunities and higher prices." But experts say his comparison is inaccurate. "It takes a special kind of wrongness to look at a plan that is focused on making sure that no one can be blocked and argue that it means the government gets to pick what services can be delivered," the site TechDirt wrote.

In a 2010 speech, Cruz launched a McCarthy era attack on Harvard. The New Yorker reported that he said, “There were fewer declared Republicans in the faculty when we were there than Communists! There was one Republican. But there were twelve who would say they were Marxists who believe in the Communists overthrowing the United States government.” A Harvard spokesperson was quoted as responding, "We are puzzled by the Senator's assertions, as we are unaware of any basis for them."

Cruz can be too clever by half. For instance, take his opposition to those who are advocating measures to reduce global warming. "What do they do? They scream, 'You're a denier.' They brand you a heretic," Cruz told Texas Tribune reporter Jay Root. "Today, the global warming alarmists are the equivalent of the flat-Earthers. It used to be [that] it is accepted scientific wisdom the Earth is flat, and this heretic named Galileo was branded a denier." On this issue Cruz is a flat-wronger. According to NASA, "Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities, and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position."

"Imagine abolishing the IRS," Senator Cruz said in his announcement Monday, "abolishing the IRS ain't all that tough." But the IRS collects $2.4 billion in taxes used to pay for the military, Social Security, Medicare and other entitlement programs. Cruz proposes a flat tax. However, if there are going to be federal taxes some agency will need to collect them!

Ted Cruz, 44, was born in Canada, but he has since given up his Canadian citizenship. His father, Rafael Cruz, is a controversial evangelical Texas pastor who believes his son is the anointed one. In a 2013 interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network, Pastor Cruz recalled he told his then four-year old son, “'You know Ted, you have been gifted above any man that I know and God has destined you for greatness.' And I started making declarations about the Word of God to him every day.”

Pastor Cruz has reportedly embraced the Christian Dominionism theology, which believes that Christians are called to take "dominion" over every aspect of the American culture and use them to create God's kingdom on Earth in order to bring about the return of Jesus Christ.

In his announcement Monday, Senator Cruz said, “God’s blessing has been on America from the very beginning of this nation, and I believe God isn’t done with America yet.” He continued, “I believe in you. I believe in the power of millions of courageous conservatives rising up to re-ignite the promise of America.”

Cruz, a first-term Senator, is the first Republican candidate to throw his hat into the ring. He will try to consolidate his support among conservatives and Christian evangelicals. He has repeatedly said that a moderate Republican cannot win the presidency. In January he said, "If we nominate another candidate in the mold of Bob Dole or John McCain or Mitt Romney...the same people who stayed home in 2008 and 2012 will stay home in 2016 and the Democrats will win again. There is a better way."

But many Republicans already believe that if Senator Ted Cruz is their party's nominee there is no way they will win the White House in 2016.