The GOP Targets Entitlement Programs

Republicans have long coveted deep cuts in federal entitlement programs.   Up to now Democrats have thwarted their attempts to slash America's social safety net.  But that may change in the coming year.

House Speaker Paul Ryan is openly making the case, and he has robust support from the Republican controlled Congress.  On Wednesday, Ryan said, "We have a welfare system that's trapping people in poverty and effectively paying people not to work.  We've got to work on that."   Ryan added, in an interview on Ross Kaminsky's radio show, "We're going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and deficit." 

Ironically, Ryan's bold pronouncement comes as Republicans in Congress work to reconcile their so-called tax reform legislation.  The hastily crafted bill, when enacted, will disproportionately benefit high-income earners and large corporations while adding up to $1.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.   Their justification is that the measure will increase economic activity, which will add jobs and grow wages.   But few economists agree with this misguided premise.  In fact, this tax bill is merely a sop to wealthy Republican donors who threatened to cut off their donations to the party unless taxes are cut.     

With even larger deficit spending as a result of the tax cuts, Republicans can turn their attention to reducing federal expenditures.  The largest drivers of federal spending are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, military spending and interest on the debt.  Defense and interest payments will not be cut.  That pretty much leaves the entitlement programs.  

"Starving the beast" is a political strategy conservatives developed decades ago for reducing government spending.  In 1978, economist and future Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told a congressional committee, "Let us remember that the basic purpose of any tax cut program in today's environment is to reduce the momentum of expenditure growth by restraining the amount of revenue available and trust that there is a political limit to deficit spending."  Liberal economist Paul Krugman later observed, "Rather than proposing unpopular spending cuts, Republicans would push through popular tax cuts, with the deliberate intention of worsening the government's fiscal position.  Spending cuts could be sold as a necessity rather than a choice."   Speaker Ryan and Republicans are doing just that.  

Once the Republican tax proposal is passed and signed by President Donald Trump, there will be no going back.  Most Republicans in Congress have signed on to the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.  The pledge, authored by political activist Grover Norquist, states that the signatories will never vote to raise taxes under any circumstances or they will be challenged in their next Republican primary election.    

A possible hurdle to entitlement cuts could be President Trump, who as a candidate tweeted in 2015, "I was the first & only potential GOP candidate to state there will be no cuts to Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid."  But the president, who is obsessed with winning political victories, will likely endorse any GOP initiative, proclaiming that proposed changes to entitlements are meant to save the programs. 

The federal government and the states currently jointly fund Medicaid.  Medicaid provides health coverage to millions of Americans, including the elderly, low-income adults, children and people with disabilities.  Speaker Ryan favors converting Medicaid into a block grant program for states and then capping the grants.  But historical data on grants indicates that over time this will result in a decline in Medicaid funding.  And the nation's neediest citizens will feel the impact.    

Nonetheless, there is broad support among congressional Republicans and their wealthy donors for reducing the cost of entitlements.  Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, who is the Republican Senate Finance Committee Chair, summarized the sentiment of his colleagues last week in a speech on the Senate floor.  "I have a rough time wanting to spend billions and billions and trillions of dollars to help people who won't help themselves, won't lift a finger, and expect the federal government to do everything."  

Sadly, the Republican dream of undoing entitlement programs established by President Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal and President Lyndon Johnson's Great Society may finally be within their reach.     

Priming the GOP

President Donald Trump's actions over the past couple weeks should be particularly alarming for all Americans, even for those whom have steadfastly supported him.  His approval ratings are at an historic low for a president this early in their term.  Yet, for the most part, Congressional Republicans remain reticent, although pressure is building on them to show courage. 

In 1776, Thomas Jefferson warned, "Experience hath shewn, that even under the best forms, those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny."  Tyranny, the cruel, unreasonable, or arbitrary use of power or control, has been a growing characteristic of America's 45th President, who wants to bring an end to the many investigations into Russia's ties to the Trump campaign. 

The fact that Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, the man who was leading the FBI investigation, is chilling.  That the president would undercut his surrogates and admit flat out that the Comey firing was in part due to the Russian investigation is stunning and may be obstruction of justice.  Trump told NBC News' Lester Holt last week, “I said to myself, I said, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made-up story; it’s an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election that they should have won.”  Trump added that the investigation should have been "over with a long time ago," and disingenuously continued, "I might even lengthen out the investigation, but I have to do the right thing for the American people."  

The president took the trouble to note in his dismissal letter to Comey that the director told him, "on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation."  But according to those who know the director it is highly unlikely that Comey would give such assurances.  Of course, only an extreme egotist would invite the FBI director over for dinner and then ask if he is personally under investigation.   And only an extreme narcissist would ask Comey for his total loyalty before agreeing to keep him on at the FBI.  

The president regularly confuses ethical behavior with his personal interest, as if to say, "If it's good for me, it's ethical."  He sees no boundaries when it comes to the FBI investigation.  He recognizes no lines when it comes to the many financial conflicts of interest he and his family have in the U.S. and around the world.   

Even so, Trump's supporters still believe he will keep his campaign promises, that his obvious bluster is authenticity, that he truly cares about those left behind.   How's that working now?  Obamacare is still the law, meaningful tax reform is boxed up behind health care legislation, the North American Free Trade Agreement is still in place, nothing has happened on infrastructure, the national debt continues to explode, job creation is modest, and American taxpayers will pay for whatever wall is ultimately built along the border with Mexico.  Meanwhile, North Korea is out of control, the Iran nuclear deal has not been altered, there is no "secret strategy" to defeat ISIS, the U.S. Embassy in Israel has not moved to Jerusalem, Trump now says China is not a currency manipulator, and Russians are taking advantage of the president in the Oval Office and in Syria.

Thankfully many of Trump's campaign promises have not come true.   His replacement for Obamacare would knock 20 million people out of coverage, and give an $800 billion tax break to the wealthy.  His "tax reform" plan would add trillions to the national debt, and his unconstitutional anti-Muslim travel bans have been blocked by the U.S. courts.   Last month Trump told Reuters, "This is more work than in my previous life.  I thought it would be easier."  

Of course, Trump blames the the fake media for his failures and problems.  He has even proposed ending the daily White House briefings.  But even some leading Republicans think that's a bad idea.   In 1776, Jefferson wrote on how to prevent tyranny, "It is believed that the most effectual means of preventing this would be, to illuminate, as far as practicable, the minds of the people at large."   

Trump ridiculously claimed the other day that he came up with the term, "priming the pump."  Apparently they don't use that phrase at the Wharton School, even though President Franklin Roosevelt began using it in 1937 during the Great Depression.   But this is yet another example of how Trump makes it up as he goes.  And rumors of a massive White House staff shakeup once again highlights the fact that Trump will throw anyone under the bus for his own transgressions and shortcomings. 

Meanwhile, Congressional Republicans stand silently by as Democrats feel increased optimistism about their chances in the 2018 midterm elections.  

Trump's Collapse

"I alone can fix it," Donald Trump bragged at the Republican National Convention last July with swagger, confidence and certitude.   But Trump has since shown no sign he can even run an effective campaign, and he is now on the verge of an historic defeat.  

Many Americans were ready for a change this election, and all of the polls revealed a nation filled with concern that the country was headed in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton, a flawed candidate dogged by an email controversy and a foreign policy record that has come under continuous scrutiny.  Yet Republicans selected as their nominee a brash man who had no political experience, little knowledge of the key issues, an impulsive nature, and a man who bullies those who stand in his way.   They thought they could control him, shape his campaign, and get him "on message."  They failed.  As a result, Republicans are fighting to retain control of the Senate.

Trump did not properly prepare for any of the three debates he had with Clinton.  Consequently, he could not speak articulately about any of the issues that were discussed.  Clinton won all three debates, and her third debate performance was her best.  She set traps for the thin-skinned Trump, and he took the bait.  At the end of the first debate she mentioned how Trump had mocked a former Miss Universe, Alicia Machado, because she had gained weight.  The result was an overnight Twitter storm from Trump that raised serious questions about his temperament.  

In the second debate, Trump was on the defensive from the very beginning because a videotape had been released of him talking in an inappropriate way about women.  Moderator Anderson Cooper, of CNN, asked Trump, "You described kissing women without consent, grabbing their genitals.  That is sexual assault.  You bragged that you sexually assaulted women.  Do you understand that?"  Trump responded that he was embarrassed by his comments, and scrambled to answer the question.  "No, I didn't say that at all.  I don't think you understood what was--this was locker room talk.  I am not proud of it.  I apologize to my family.  I apologize to the American people."  This incident and the exchange raised serious questions about Trump's character.  

For weeks Trump has been saying that the election will be rigged, and asked that his supporters monitor polling places.  In their final debate, moderator Chris Wallace, of Fox News, asked Trump that, if he loses, would he accept the outcome as is the tradition in presidential elections.  Trump responded, "I will look at it at the time.  I'm not looking at anything now.  I'll look at it at the time."  He then added, "If you look at your voter rolls, you will see millions of people that are registered to vote...millions of people that are registered to vote that shouldn't be registered to vote."   Wallace followed up, "Are you saying you will not commit to that principle?"  Trump replied, "What I am saying is that I will tell you at the time.  I'll keep you in suspense. OK?"   This exchange dominated the news cycle and received criticism from his fellow Republicans.

On Saturday, Trump appeared at a rally in Gettysburg, the site of an historic Civil War battle, and the place President Lincoln delivered his Gettysburg address.  Trump gave his closing argument and outlined what he would do during his first 100 days in office if elected.   But he began by attacking the "dishonest mainstream media" and a rigged election.  He then spoke of the 10 women (now 11) who had come forward to accuse him of unwanted sexual advances.  "Every women lied when they came forward to hurt my campaign -- total fabrication," he said as he gestured from the podium for emphasis.  "The events never happened.  Never.  All of these liars will be sued after the election is over."  Of course, if he actually sues, and if he is elected, a President Trump, will spend an enormous amount of time in depositions, and so will members of his family.  This is another empty threat, but it overshadowed his closing argument.   

No one believes more in Donald Trump than Trump himself.  But his candidacy has roiled and divided the Republican Party, and it has repulsed millions of women, Hispanics, Muslims, and independent voters.  Trump has said he read the bible.  Perhaps he should have carefully considered these words from Luke, "For all those who exalt themselves will be humbled, and those who humble themselves will be exalted."   

Republican Party in Turmoil

The Republican Party is in turmoil.  Its leadership has so far chosen to support a presumptive nominee that has used hate, fear and personal attacks to secure enough delegates to be nominated at its upcoming convention.  Does the GOP really want to be the party of Donald Trump?

Does it want to cave to the rebuke Trump challenged them with on Wednesday in campaign a speech Atlanta?  "You know, the Republicans, honestly, folks, our leaders -- our leaders have to get tougher," he said.  "This is too tough to do it alone.  But you know what?  I think I am going to be forced to."  Does the party want to roll over in the face of the stinging criticism it received from Sam Clovis, Trump's campaign co-chair? "Either they want to get behind the presumptive nominee, who will be the nominee of this party, and make sure that we do everything we can to win in November, or we're just asking them if they can't do that, then just shut the hell up," he said.

Following Trump's outrageous statements about an American born judge of Mexican heritage, and his statements about Muslims, he has seen his support among Americans sharply decline.  An astonishing 70 percent of Americans surveyed recently by ABC News now have an unfavorable view of Trump.  Yet Trump intends on doing nothing to address this problem.  Instead, he is using the same narrow strategy that brought him victory in the Republican primaries--attack, divide and bully.  But in order to win in the general election he will need to attract independents, Democrats, women and minorities. 

A growing number of Republicans at all levels are distancing themselves from Trump. Asked to comment on Trump's ridiculous statement that President Obama was responsible for the terrorist massacre in Orlando, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell responded, "I am not going to be commenting on the presidential candidate today."  Last week, when McConnell was asked who Trump should pick as his running mate, he said, "He needs someone highly experienced and very knowledgeable because it's pretty obvious he doesn't know a lot about the issues."  

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who announced his support of Trump after many weeks, still has not fully embraced the candidate.  In an interview with NBC News, which will air Sunday, Ryan was asked whether Republicans should follow their conscience?   "The last thing I would do is tell anybody to do something that's contrary to their conscience," he said. "I get that this a very strange situation. He a very unique nominee. But I feel as a responsibility institutionally as the speaker of the House that I should not be leading some chasm in the middle of our party. Because you know what I know that'll do? That'll definitely knock us out of the White House," he added.  

Fundraising is now a problem for the Republican Party.  And many major companies that sponsored the GOP's 2012 convention have announced they will not be sponsoring its upcoming convention.  Down-ballot races are now threatened because Trump's behavior is undermining Senate and House candidates across the country.  The problem is so severe that the party has turned to former President George W. Bush, who was very unpopular when he left office, to help save its most vulnerable senators.  

Stopping Trump from becoming the Republican presidential nominee will not be easy at this point.  Trump received more than 13 million votes in the primaries, and he has won more than enough delegates to be nominated.   If the party gives its nomination to someone else, and there is no clear alternative, it will risk revolt.   But would the GOP really be worse off if it did so?

For the past eight years the Republicans have been the party of obstructionism in Congress. Its leadership has allowed a minority of conservatives to dictate the direction of the party no matter the consequences, including shutting the government down.  The leadership has repeatedly said no to compromise with Democrats for fear of upsetting those on its far right.

So it should be no surprise that the party's leadership has not stood up to Donald Trump. His bullying tactics, racist statements and lack of temperament have damaged their brand, and they will do nothing except hope for the best in November's elections.  

In short, Republicans will reap what they have sown.    

Clinton's "Mistake"

As former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton nears her goal of securing the Democratic presidential nomination she once again is testing the loyalty of even her most ardent supporters.  A State Department inspector general report, released Wednesday, found that she had not sought permission to use a private email server while she was in office, contradicting her explanation that she has repeated throughout her campaign.   

The report is damning, noting that she had "a personal obligation to discuss using her email account to conduct official business," but there was no evidence she sought or received approval from the State Department.  The State investigation also was critical of Clinton's handling of emails under the Federal Records Act after she stepped down.  While she later turned over thousands of emails, she had thousands more she considered personal destroyed.  The government has now determined that more than 100 emails Clinton sent contain classified information.  

Meanwhile, an FBI investigation into her email use continues, as well as other legal challenges, which all casts a dark cloud over her ongoing campaign.   Clinton has repeatedly said that other Secretaries of State used a private email address.  The State report found that Secretary of State Colin Powell, who served in President George W. Bush's first term, said he used a private address for unclassified emails.  But at least two emails sent to him have now been marked classified.  

The report also points out that the email rules were clarified before Clinton became Secretary of State to not allow the use of a private server because of "significant security risks."   In November 2010, her deputy chief of operations recommended "putting you on State email" to shield her email from spam.  She responded that she would consider using a separate address, but "I don't want any risk of the personal being accessible."  The report says Clinton was sent a memo in 2011 warning of hackers trying to access private email accounts, and that she was given a personal briefing on the issue.  

Why would the Secretary of State, who should know the rules of her department, seek to use a private server?  In March 2015, Clinton told CNN, "I opted for convenience to use my personal account, which was allowed by the State Department, because I thought it would be easier to carry one device for my work and for my personal emails instead of two."  She continued, "Looking back, it would have been better if I'd simply used a second email account and carried a second phone, but at the time, this didn't seem like an issue."   This effort to minimize the issue flies in the face of State Department rules.  While the State report found that neither Clinton nor Powell was directly told to end their personal email, there were plenty of warnings.

The FBI is looking into whether Clinton mishandled government information, which could result in criminal charges.  The investigation reportedly centers on the failure to preserve government records and exposing government information to security risks.   Clinton and her top aides are expected to be interviewed by the FBI in the near future.   Clinton has described the FBI investigation as a "security inquiry."  But FBI Director James Comey said he wasn't familiar with that term, instead calling it an investigation and adding that there is no external deadline.  "I remain close to that investigation to make sure that it's done well and has the resources that are needed," he continued, "My goal in any investigation it to do it well and to do it promptly."   

Meanwhile, Republicans immediately capitalized on the State Department findings.  "This report underscores what we already know about Hillary Clinton: she simply cannot be trusted," House Speaker Paul Ryan said in a statement.   Rep. Elijah Cummings, the ranking Democrat on the House oversight committee, responded in a statement.  "While Secretary Clinton preserved and returned tens of thousands of pages of her emails to the Department for public release, Secretary Powell has returned none."  The statement concluded, "Republicans need to stop wasting taxpayer dollars singling out Secretary Clinton just because she is running for President."

The ultimate impact of Clinton's email controversy on her campaign will not be known until the FBI announces its findings.  There is no question that the controversy plays right into the widely held perception that Clinton is not trustworthy.   The presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, is making the most of Clinton's troubles.  He has branded her "Crooked Hillary," and he told a rally Wednesday night, "She's as crooked as they come, she had a little bad news today."  However, recent polls show that Trump is even more unpopular than Clinton.   And Trump's bullying, erratic behavior and outrageous statements have caused many Republicans to cautiously embrace his candidacy, and others to hold off on their endorsements. 

While it may be nearly impossible for Clinton's Democratic opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders, to overtake her in the delegate count, he has pledged to take his fight to the Democratic Convention. A new poll, taken before the State Department report was released,  shows Sanders has closed the gap among likely voters in the upcoming California primary.   

Last September, in an effort to quiet the controversy, Clinton told ABC News that her use of private email was a "mistake," adding, "I am sorry about that.  I take responsibility."   Now, nearly one year later, the email controversy continues to gain momentum and roil her campaign.   And the FBI has not yet spoken.  

Biff Trump

Businessman Donald Trump is the Republican Party's presumptive nominee for president,  but can he unite the party?  Now that Texas Senator Ted Cruz has suspended his campaign, can he endorse the man he called a "pathological liar" and "utterly amoral"?  Now that Governor Kasich is suspending his campaign, will the party come together and enthusiastically support its standard-barer?  

In his victory speech Tuesday night, Trump had nothing but praise for the man he only hours earlier called "lying" Ted Cruz.  "He is one tough competitor," Trump said.  "He is a smart tough guy."  But Cruz did not mention Trump's name in his concession speech.  Instead, he positioned himself as the leader of the conservative movement.  "I am not suspending our fight to defend the Constitution, to defend the Judea-Christian values that built America," he said.  "Our efforts will continue and I give you my word that I will continue this fight with all of my strength and all of my ability."

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Preibus is going to have an enormous challenge bringing his party together.  Right after Trump was declared the winner in Indiana Tuesday evening, Preibus tweeted, "@realDonaldTrump will be presumptive @GOP nominee, we all need to unite and focus on defeating @HillaryClinton."  However, the burden of uniting the GOP will fall heaviest on Trump, who told NBC's Today, "I am confident that I can unite much of it."  But he added, "Honestly, there are some people I really don't want.  I don't think it's necessary.  People would be voting for me, they're not voting for the party."

Fortunately for Trump, this is politics, so even his harshest critics within the party will unashamedly put principle aside and endorse him if they believe it helps them in some way.  Who better than the author of The Art of the Deal  to win people over.  But Trump's no holds barred campaign has burned a lot of bridges with large segments of the general population.

For instance, Trump will have to negotiate with Latinos, many of whom he has alienated with his constant attacks on Mexico.  "When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best," he said in his presidential campaign announcement last June.  "They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us.  They're bringing drugs.  They're bringing crime.  They're rapists.  And some, I assume, are good people," he added.  

Latino groups project at least 13.1 million Hispanics will vote this election compared to about 10 million in 2008.  A record 27.3 million Latinos will be eligible to vote, up from 19.5 million eight years ago.  In a recent national poll of Hispanics conducted by Latino Decisions, 79% of the respondents had a very unfavorable opinion of Trump.   This result is ominous because Republican Mitt Romney received only 27% of the Latino vote in his huge loss to President Barack Obama in 2012.  It is hard to believe that Trump could do as well this November as Romney did four years ago.  And Trump will never reach the 37% mark that President George W. Bush received in his contested victory in 2000.   

Women do not like Trump.  According to a Gallup poll released last month Trump had a 70% unfavorable rating with women as compared to a 23% favorable rating.  Trump has made numerous comments that have outraged women.  Of then opponent Carly Fiorina, Trump said, "Look at that face.  Would anyone vote for that?"  Trump also called for women to be punished for getting abortions in an interview with MSNBC in March, but reversed his position after the firestorm he created.  Overall, Trump is going to have to deal with this problem because considerably more women vote in national elections than do men.   And winning only the white male blue-collar vote is not enough to win the presidency.  

In his Trump tirade Tuesday, Senator Cruz pointed out that the Back to the Future character, Biff Tannen, was based on Trump, a "caricature of a braggadocious, arrogant buffoon."   He concluded, "We are looking, potentially, at the Biff Tannen presidency."

You can never count anyone out, least of all Donald Trump.  And November is a long way off, so anything can happen.  However, if the campaign is limited to debates over woman's issues, foreign policy and actual experience with Congress and the executive branch, likely Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton will have the advantage.  

But Trump is unpredictable and unconventional.  And the battlefield is littered with candidates who thought they could beat him.  Guess Donald Trump is no buffoon.   

Ted Cruz Closing Strong

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has run a very impressive campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. In fact, it is amazing to see he has done so well give his duplicity and polarizing nature.

Cruz has been shrewd in his approach to securing convention delegates, and he has displayed a keen understanding of each state's rules for winning delegates. Current GOP front-runner Donald Trump exploded into a Twitter rage over the weekend after Cruz won all of Colorado's 37 convention delegates. “The people of Colorado had their vote taken away from them by the phony politicians. Biggest story in politics. This will not be allowed!” Trump tweeted.

Trump has only himself to blame for being outmaneuvered by the man he refers to as "lying Ted." The rules are the rules and they are well known to candidates who do their homework. Last August the Colorado Republican Party announced it would not let voters take part in the nomination process. At the time, the Denver Post reported, “The GOP executive committee has voted to cancel the traditional presidential preference poll after the national party changed its rules to require a state’s delegates to support the candidate that wins the caucus vote.” This begs the question, "If Trump can get out foxed in Colorado, how can he succeed in negotiations with China and Iran?"

Senator Cruz has carefully navigated the turbulent Republican nomination process to build the second largest collection of loyal delegates going into the convention. Once one of 17 GOP candidates running for the nomination, he has positioned himself well to be a viable alternative to Trump. Cruz kept his powder dry in the earlier primaries and caucuses, refusing to get caught up in the name calling and sniping that characterized much of the campaign. He was an outstanding college debater, but so far his debate performances during the primaries has been unremarkable.

Instead, he has focused on winning delegates with charm, wit and deceit. In the Iowa Caucus, the Cruz campaign adopted "social pressure" techniques to scare Republicans out to vote. It sent out mailers to likely voters with the heading "VOTER VIOLATION." The mailer included threatening text, "Your individual voting history as well as your neighbors' are public record. Their scores are published below, and many of them will see your score as well." The Iowa Secretary of State later condemned this tactic, "Accusing citizens of Iowa of a 'voting violation' based on Iowa Caucus participation, or lack thereof, is false representation of an official act."

Cruz was so determined to win in Iowa that as caucus goers were preparing to head to the polls his campaign sent them an urgent email blast. The email claimed that Dr. Ben Carson would be dropping out of the race and they should instead vote for Cruz. Of course, the email was a deliberate lie, but Cruz eked out an important first victory over the field.

Ted Cruz has been the great disrupter since he first entered the Senate following his victory in the 2012 election. He is very unpopular among other senators because of his brash and divisive polemics. He referred to other Republican senators as the "surrender caucus" because they did not sufficiently oppose President Barack Obama. Cruz accused his own Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell telling "a flat out lie" on the floor of the chamber. Cruz is single handedly responsible for the 2013 government shutdown by rallying gullible House Tea Party members against their leadership's better judgment.

Fellow Senator John McCain has called Cruz a "wacko bird" and crazy. In February, Senator Lyndsey Graham, a former presidential candidate, said, "If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you." Now, remarkably, Graham has joined those supporting Cruz as a way to keep Trump from winning the nomination outright. Their hope is that Trump will fail on the first ballot and some other candidate will emerge. But Cruz knows that, so he remains busy adding delegates using every trick in the book so he can be that some other candidate.

However, a word of caution to Cruz supporters, winning a party nomination is a lot different that winning the presidency. First, Cruz will have to unite a deeply divided convention, especially Trump delegates. Secondly, Cruz will have to moderate his extreme positions on everything from same sex marriage and abortion to immigration and "carpet bombing" ISIS. His economic plan is forecast to add trillions to the national debt by many economists, and will add thousands to the unemployment roles. His plan to eliminate the IRS is unrealistic and impractical. While he qualifies as a Latino, Cuban-Americans make up a small minority of the Hispanic population, which votes overwhelmingly Democratic. He will be challenged on his qualifications to run for president because he was born in Canada. His wife worked for Goldman Sachs, which is one reason Ron Paul observed in February, "He's owned by Goldman Sachs. I mean he and Hillary (Clinton) have more in common."

If Cruz makes it all the way to the White House, how will he unite his party? How will he persuade Democrats to work with him? How will his presidency bring an end to the gridlock on Capitol Hill? How will his emotive language and tough talk earn America more respect around the world? How will he bring Americans together? The simple answer is, he won't.

You see, Ted Cruz loves to hear Ted Cruz talk. His animated motions, hands thrusting down to emphasize his points, underscores the passion he has for himself. He projects a carefully crafted point and often punctuates it with a wry smile of self-appreciation, as if to say, "I'm amazing." He always speaks with the confidence of a man who believes he is the smartest person in the room.

Two years before he was elected the first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln reportedly said, "You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time." I am not sure Ted Cruz would agree with that.

Trumpmare Scenario

Donald Trump's campaign pledge is to "Make America Great Again."  Instead, if he is nominated, he may end up destroying the Republican Party.  

Trump's blustery, brash and in-your-face demeanor has attracted a large following of devoted acolytes that have lifted him to front-runner status for his party's nomination.    Ever the showman, Trump has gobbled up hours of free media time on television news outlets, which has resulted in huge ratings.  

Since he announced his candidacy last June in the opulent lobby of Trump Tower on New York's Fifth Avenue, he has overcome many political gaffes and consistently confounded political commentators who have many times predicted his demise.   At long last, though, it appears that the accumulated weight of his missteps has begun to drag on his campaign, and may have permanently damaged the Republican Party. 

Trump has referred to Mexicans and rapists.  He has promised to build a wall along the Mexican border, which he says Mexico will pay for.   He has pledged a mass deportation of all 11 million immigrants who are in this country illegally.   He has called for a ban on Muslims entering the United States.   He has humiliated his opponent's wives, including Heidi Cruz and Columba Bush.  He has attacked journalists, including Univision's Jorge Ramos and Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, who each have millions of loyal viewers.

Trump has alienated women.  "Look at that face!" he said of then opponent Carly Fiorina.  "Would anyone vote for that?"  He has unapologetically supported his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who has been charged with battery for grabbing the arm of a female reporter at a rally.  And, in an apparent attempt to strengthen his bona fides as a pro-life candidate, he said that there has to be "some form of punishment" for women who have abortions.   He later recanted that position following a firestorm of protests, saying in a statement that if abortions were illegal, "The doctor or any other person performing this illegal act upon women would be held legally responsible, not the women."

Trump has also alarmed our allies in Europe with is lack of understanding of foreign affairs and loose talk.  For instance, this exchange with MSNBC's Chris Matthews:     

Matthews: “Can you tell the Middle East we’re not using nuclear weapons?”

Trump: “I would never say that. I would never take any of my cards off the table.”

Matthews: “How about Europe? We won’t use in Europe?”

Trump: “I’m not going to take it off the table for anybody.”

Matthews: “You’re going to use it in Europe?”

Trump: “No! I don’t think so. But…”

Matthews: “Just say it, say ‘I’m not going to use a nuclear weapon in Europe’.”

Trump: “I am not taking cards off the table. I’m not going to use nukes – but I’m not taking any cards off the table.”

Trump rattled two Asian allies with comments he made in an interview with the New York Times. Trump said he would be open to allowing Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear arsenals as protection against North Korea and China.  

Many leading Republicans have expressed concern that if Trump is their nominee in November they will lose the Senate and maybe the House.  Nerves are so frayed that Trump suddenly traveled to Washington to meet with leaders of the Republican National Committee Thursday.  It was described in news reports as a "unity meeting" because RNC officials were concerned after Trump withdrew his pledge to support whomever the party decides to make its nominee at the Republican convention.  

Will the Republican Party awaken from what University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato calls its "Trumpmare?  Will RNC Chairman Reince Priebus heed his own warning, given when the party released its autopsy of its overwhelming 2012 election defeat?  "The RNC cannot and will not write off any demographic or community or region of this country," Priebus said.

A recent Reuters poll, taken before Trump's comments on abortion, found that 50 percent of American women hold a very unfavorable view of Trump.  Meanwhile, a Gallup Poll shows that 77 percent of Hispanics have an unfavorable view of him.  Overall, Trump's unfavorables are above 60 percent in all the recent polls, and they do not factor in his most recent gaffes.  

Trump's shadow hangs over the Republican Party.  Even if a contested Republican convention selects another nominee, the party has been badly hurt.  Priebus might reflect on the line from Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, "The fault dear Brutus is not in our stars, but in ourselves."

Trump vs. Clinton

Republican Donald Trump was the big winner in presidential contests Tuesday in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii.   But former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton narrowly lost to Senator Bernie Sanders in Michigan because she underperformed with working-class white male voters, a group Trump does well with.   This portends a serious problem for Clinton should she face Trump in the November presidential election.

Trump's victories came at a time when many political pundits predicted that he was peaking in the polls.  Trump endured a massive advertising campaign financed by political action committees trying to knock him out.  He withstood attacks from leaders of the Republican establishment.  He even overcame perceived gaffes, including comparisons to Adolph Hitler.   Nothing could dissuade loyal Trump supporters from voting for him.
  
Anger is the fuel of Trump-mania.  Many Republican voters are totally fed up with the gridlock in Washington.  Many dislike President Barack Obama, but many feel betrayed by Republicans in Congress who have not fulfilled their promises.  And no group is more angry than working-class voters who feel left behind.   From 1973 to 2013, the hourly wages of middle-wage workers were stagnant, rising just 6 percent, or less than .02 percent per year.   Meanwhile, the annual wages for the top 1 percent have grown 138 percent since 1979.  

Jobs are also an important issue for voters this election.  While Michigan employment has been increasing over the past four years, it has only recovered 40 percent of the industrial jobs lost during the recession.   The North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, which was signed by President Bill Clinton, has resulted in nearly a quarter-million lost manufacturing jobs in Michigan. Senator Sanders and Trump both have been harshly critical of NAFTA and the recent proposal Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Clinton only recently announced her opposition to.

Trump has appealed to millions of disheartened Americans without having to provide much in the way of specifics on issues.  He is a brash outsider who many voters think "tells it like it is."   They are fed up with U.S. immigration policy.  Despite a lack of details, they believe Trump will deport eleven million immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally, and they believe he will build a wall along the Mexican border and get Mexico to pay for it.   Voters have overlooked the growing scandal surrounding Trump University, his petulant name calling and personal insults, and even his flip flops on key issues.  

Trump will need to get 60 percent of the remaining delegates in the upcoming presidential contests in order to reach the 1237 delegates needed to secure the Republican presidential nomination.  Given his surprising performance Tuesday, and the fact that he has won so many southern states, where Texas Senator Ted Cruz was favored, and he is doing well among evangelicals and conservatives, it will be hard to stop him from achieving his goal.   In fact, Trump has already begun the task of mending fences with the GOP establishment.  

On the other hand, given her huge lead in the delegate count, it is very likely that Hillary Clinton will get her party's nomination.  Her closely contested race with Sanders is but a tepid warmup for her likely clash with Donald Trump.   Trump will relentlessly attack Clinton on foreign policy, like Libya and Benghazi, on women's issues, on President Bill Clinton's affairs, on the Clinton foundation, on emails, on Goldman Sachs speaking fees, and more.  
Trump has had a major impact on the large Republican primary turn out so far, and on mobilizing working-class voters, as well as independents and Democrats.  These are the voters Clinton will need to be elected president in November, especially in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois.  While recent polls indicate that Clinton beats Trump in a head to head match up, it would be wise not to bet against Donald Trump.

On the other hand, in his book, The Art of the Deal, Trump wrote, "You can't con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole."  He concluded, "But if you don't deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on."   Can Donald Trump deliver the goods?  

Supreme Court Showdown

Once a lame duck president called upon the Senate to, "Join together in a bipartisan effort to fulfill our constitutional obligation of restoring the U.S. Supreme Court to full strength."  He also called on the Senate for, "Prompt hearings conducted in the spirit of cooperation and bipartisanship."  In February 1988, eight months before that year's presidential election, the Senate voted 97-0 to confirm President Ronald Reagan's nominee, Anthony Kennedy.  

President Reagan, the founding father of the modern Republican Party, governed recognizing that the American democratic system calls for compromise.   He is quoted as telling aides, "I'd rather get 80 per cent of what I want than go over the cliff with my flag flying."   Reagan and then Democratic Speaker Tip O'Neill respectfully worked together in the best interest of the American people, just the way our Founding Fathers had originally envisioned. 

So when conservative Justice Antonin Scalia died suddenly earlier this month, President Barack Obama announced his intention to fulfill his constitutional obligation to put forth a Supreme Court nominee.  In a post on the ScotusBlog website Wednesday, the president wrote the person he nominates will the eminently qualified.  "I seek judges who approach decisions without any particular ideology or agenda," he wrote, "but rather a commitment to impartial justice, a respect for precedent, and a determination to faithfully apply the law to the facts at hand."

But Senate Republicans announced that there would be a no confirmation hearing and no vote on the president's nominee.  "This nominee will be determined by whoever wins the presidency in the polls," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said to reporters Tuesday.  "In short, there will not be action taken."  As a justification, Republicans cited a June 1992 quote from then Senator Joe Biden, who said, "President Bush should consider following the practice of a majority of his predecessors and not--not--name a nominee until after the November election is completed."  However, Biden's comments were not made in February, but rather in late June, shortly before Congress's summer recess.  And Biden was speaking of a possible resignation, not a sudden death. 

Battles between the political parties over Supreme Court nominees have been increasingly contentious in recent history.  Nonetheless, in a shocking and unprecedented move, McConnell said would not even meet with Obama's nominee.  "I don't know the purpose of such a visit," he told reporters.

By making such a move, Senate Republicans are once again showing their utter contempt for President Obama.   More importantly, they are once again demonstrating that their most important priority is winning political victories and settling scores rather than complying with the Constitution.   Republicans think that by calling Obama the most divisive president ever, voters will overlook the fact that it is really the GOP that has been the great divider.  

On the day Obama was first sworn in 2008, Republican leaders held a meeting in which they agreed to block Obama and make him a one term president.  Of course, Republicans have since consistently done all they could to gum up the works.  For instance, they blocked immigration reform, they shut the federal government down in 2012 over whether to raise the federal debt ceiling, they have blocked dozens of important judicial appointments, and they did nothing to silence the Obama birther movement.  

However, as a consequence of endless Republican obstructionism, voters are frustrated and angry with Washington.  This has led to the rise of Donald Trump as a Republican presidential candidate, and a civil war within the party.  Meanwhile, Obama, despite of all the impediments he has faced these past seven years, has made real headway on the economy, banking reform, equal pay for women, health care, and he has kept the country safe.  

The president intends on nominating a replacement for Scalia.  A Fox News poll released Monday found that nearly two-thirds of those surveyed believe that Obama should make a nomination and the Senate should take action.   Despite their bluster, Senate Republican leaders should allow the president's candidate to be considered by the Senate Judiciary Committee.  If the candidate is affirmed there, the Republican controlled Senate should take up the nomination.  For Senate Republicans to declare that they won't even meet with the candidate goes against the constitution, and it seems childish.  What do they fear?

Perhaps they should reflect on the words of their spiritual leader, "There are no easy answers, but there are simple answers," Ronald Reagan said.  "We must have the courage to do what is morally right."  

The Fox News Debate

Donald Trump won Thursday night's Republican debate by not participating, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz failed to capitalize on Trump's absence. Meanwhile, it is unlikely that the debate, hosted by Fox News, will have an impact on Monday's Iowa Caucus. 

If you missed the first couple minutes of the debate you missed Cruz's best moment. Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly asked Cruz about "the elephant not in the room," referring to Trump's absence. "Let me say I'm a maniac and everyone on stage is stupid, fat and ugly. And Ben (Carson), you're a terrible surgeon," Cruz responded. "Now that we've gotten the Donald Trump portion out of the way," he said as the audience laughed. 

The bad news for Cruz was that because Trump wasn't present to take incoming from all the challengers, Cruz became the target of attacks from most of the other candidates. Cruz found himself in a defensive posture, which is a position he clearly hates to be in. That may explain his Trump-like whining answer directed at Fox News anchor Chris Wallace. "Chris, I would note that that the last four questions have been, 'Rand, please attack Ted. Marco, please attack Ted. Chris, please attack Ted. Jeb, please attack Ted,'" he complained. "Gosh, if you guys ask one more mean question I may have to leave the stage." Cruz's feeble attempt at humor seemed more like an unforced error.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, whose answers mostly seemed pre-planned, and whose tone was mostly self-righteous, seized on the Cruz bobble in a subsequent response. "Don't worry, I'm not leaving the stage no matter what you ask me," he said to Wallace, who then said, "Good." Rubio, who trails in recent polls of likely Iowa Caucus goers, clearly targeted Cruz's strong support among evangelical Christian conservatives. "When I'm president, I can tell you this, my faith will not just influence the way I'll govern as president, it will influence the way I live my life," Rubio said. "Because in the end, my goal is not simply to live on this earth for 80 years, but to live an eternity with my creator. And I will always allow my faith to influence everything I do."

But Rubio, who put on a strong performance, found himself extremely vulnerable on the issue of immigration. Moderator Kelly asked Rubio, "Within two years of getting elected you were co-sponsoring legislation to create a path to citizenship, in your words, amnesty. Haven't you already proven that you cannot be trusted on this issue?" Rubio protested, "No, I said I do not support blanket amnesty!" But former Florida Governor Jeb Bush piled on. "I'm kind of confused because he was the sponsor of the Gang of Eight bill that did require a bunch of thresholds but ultimately allowed for citizenship over an extended period of time. I mean, that's a fact. And he asked me to support that. And I -- I supported him because I think people, when you're elected, you need to do things," Bush observed.

Cruz also found himself vulnerable on the immigration issue. Kelly asked him, "When Senator Rubio proposed that bill creating a path to citizenship, you proposed an amendment. It would have allowed for legalization but not citizenship.... Pressed last month on why you supported legalization, you claimed that you didn't. Right?" Cruz strained for an answer, "You know, the amendment you're talking about is one sentence -- it's 38 words...it said anyone here illegally is permanently ineligible for citizenship. It didn't say a word about legalization." But then Kelly noted, "But the bill allowed both. The bill you were amending allowed citizenship and legalization." 

Senator Rand Paul, who had a pretty good night, jumped in on the immigration discussion. "I was there and I saw the debate. I saw Ted Cruz say, 'we'll take citizenship off the table, and then the bill will pass, and I'm for the bill.'" he asserted. "The bill would involve legalization. He can't have it both ways. But what is particularly insulting, though, is that he is the king of saying, 'you're for amnesty.' Everybody's for amnesty except for Ted Cruz." This set up Rubio's best line of the night. "This is the lie that Ted's campaign is built on, and Rand touched upon it -- that he's the most conservative guy, and everyone else is a -- you know, everyone else is a rhino." Rubio said. "The truth is, Ted, throughout this campaign, you've been willing to say or do anything in order to get votes."

Meanwhile, a few miles away Donald Trump hosted a fundraiser for the military veterans. Trump told the enthusiastic audience of 1,500 he would rather have been at the debate but he had to stand up for principle. In a surprise, Republican candidates Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who had just finished the "undercard" GOP debate, dropped in on the Trump gathering in support the veterans. Trump claims to have raised about $6 million through the event.

There is no question that by ducking the debate Trump avoided being the target of strong attacks from his opponents, all of whom would have wanted to take down the frontrunner. Instead, Cruz became the target for many attacks and he did not have a very good night. Ironically, Bush had his best debate performance in large part because Trump wasn't there to make him anxious.

This debate, coming just three days before the Iowa Caucus, could have been a pivotal moment for each candidate. Cruz needs to win in Iowa to stop Trump's momentum. Success in the caucus depends on his ability to mobilize his supporters. But Cruz did not help himself with his uneven debate performance, and Trump did not hurt himself by not attending. In fact, Marco Rubio may have helped himself to some of Cruz's supporters. Stay tuned!