Republican Donald Trump was the big winner in presidential contests Tuesday in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii. But former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton narrowly lost to Senator Bernie Sanders in Michigan because she underperformed with working-class white male voters, a group Trump does well with. This portends a serious problem for Clinton should she face Trump in the November presidential election.
Trump's victories came at a time when many political pundits predicted that he was peaking in the polls. Trump endured a massive advertising campaign financed by political action committees trying to knock him out. He withstood attacks from leaders of the Republican establishment. He even overcame perceived gaffes, including comparisons to Adolph Hitler. Nothing could dissuade loyal Trump supporters from voting for him.
Anger is the fuel of Trump-mania. Many Republican voters are totally fed up with the gridlock in Washington. Many dislike President Barack Obama, but many feel betrayed by Republicans in Congress who have not fulfilled their promises. And no group is more angry than working-class voters who feel left behind. From 1973 to 2013, the hourly wages of middle-wage workers were stagnant, rising just 6 percent, or less than .02 percent per year. Meanwhile, the annual wages for the top 1 percent have grown 138 percent since 1979.
Jobs are also an important issue for voters this election. While Michigan employment has been increasing over the past four years, it has only recovered 40 percent of the industrial jobs lost during the recession. The North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, which was signed by President Bill Clinton, has resulted in nearly a quarter-million lost manufacturing jobs in Michigan. Senator Sanders and Trump both have been harshly critical of NAFTA and the recent proposal Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Clinton only recently announced her opposition to.
Trump has appealed to millions of disheartened Americans without having to provide much in the way of specifics on issues. He is a brash outsider who many voters think "tells it like it is." They are fed up with U.S. immigration policy. Despite a lack of details, they believe Trump will deport eleven million immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally, and they believe he will build a wall along the Mexican border and get Mexico to pay for it. Voters have overlooked the growing scandal surrounding Trump University, his petulant name calling and personal insults, and even his flip flops on key issues.
Trump will need to get 60 percent of the remaining delegates in the upcoming presidential contests in order to reach the 1237 delegates needed to secure the Republican presidential nomination. Given his surprising performance Tuesday, and the fact that he has won so many southern states, where Texas Senator Ted Cruz was favored, and he is doing well among evangelicals and conservatives, it will be hard to stop him from achieving his goal. In fact, Trump has already begun the task of mending fences with the GOP establishment.
On the other hand, given her huge lead in the delegate count, it is very likely that Hillary Clinton will get her party's nomination. Her closely contested race with Sanders is but a tepid warmup for her likely clash with Donald Trump. Trump will relentlessly attack Clinton on foreign policy, like Libya and Benghazi, on women's issues, on President Bill Clinton's affairs, on the Clinton foundation, on emails, on Goldman Sachs speaking fees, and more.
Trump has had a major impact on the large Republican primary turn out so far, and on mobilizing working-class voters, as well as independents and Democrats. These are the voters Clinton will need to be elected president in November, especially in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois. While recent polls indicate that Clinton beats Trump in a head to head match up, it would be wise not to bet against Donald Trump.
On the other hand, in his book, The Art of the Deal, Trump wrote, "You can't con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole." He concluded, "But if you don't deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on." Can Donald Trump deliver the goods?
Showing posts with label 2016 Campaign. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016 Campaign. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
Monday, January 4, 2016
The Angry Republican Campaign
Republican presidential candidates are beginning 2016 with a full head of steam in what could be the most critical period for the party in decades. While Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz currently are leading in the national polls of likely Republican voters, it is hard to predict the final outcome of next month's primaries and caucuses.
For political junkies, the Republican race has so far been surprising and unpredictable. Real estate mogul Donald Trump has dominated media coverage and the polls since he announced his candidacy last June. From the very beginning he has exploited voter anger with caustic and abrasive rhetoric. Over the weekend he told a cheering Biloxi, Mississippi, audience, “People are so tired of the incompetence. They’re so tired of stupidity.” Trump has pledged to deport those who are in this country illegally, to build a wall along the Mexican border, and to temporarily stop Muslims from entering this country.
Meanwhile, Senator Cruz has played on voter anger to appeal to populist right voters with wild rhetoric like, "We will utterly destroy ISIS. We will carpet bomb them into oblivion. I don't know if sand can glow in the dark, but we're going to find out." In Iowa, where he appears to be leading, he has targeted conservative Christians with lines like, "If the body of Christ rises up as one and votes our values, we can turn this country around."
Voter anger is especially pronounced among Republicans. A NBC News/Survey Monkey/Esquire on line poll shows that 61% of Republicans "say that current events say that current events irk them more than a year ago." Only 41% of Democrats feel the same way.
As the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary approaches the large field of Republican candidates has begun attacking each other. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, campaigning in New Hampshire, railed against his opponents in remarks his staff released in advance Monday. “Bluster is not the leadership we crave. Talking a big game and either not showing up or not knowing how isn’t what we desperately need today.” Christie's speech was directed at Trump. “Anger alone is not a solution...America needs leaders who not only identify our problems, but who have the ability to repair our broken system. That’s what this election is all about."
Florida Senator Marco Rubio, whose disappointing campaign has so far failed to gain traction, attacked Trump in New Hampshire Monday. "The job is not described in the Constitution as 'entertainer in chief,' or 'commentator in chief,' or even, frankly, 'economist in chief.' It is described as Commander in Chief," he said. The self-righteous Rubio also observed, "We have Republican candidates who propose that rulers like Assad and Putin should be partners of the United States, and who have voted with Barack Obama and Harry Reid rather than with our men and women in uniform."
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, once thought to be the front-runner, has struggled for support despite being well financed. He has proven to be a weak candidate, and he is burdened by his brother's legacy, former President George W. Bush. Even his attack lines sound desperate and feeble. "Just one other thing -- I gotta get this off my chest -- Donald Trump is a jerk," he said at a town hall meeting last month in New Hampshire. In a Florida town hall meeting in late December he said Trump gets his foreign policy advice from television, "He wakes up in his pajamas and watches the TV shows on Saturday and Sunday."
The Republican campaign has deteriorated into a schoolhouse brawl. Candidates resort to personal attacks rather than to offering specific and detailed solutions to America's underlying problems. This is not a campaign of new and exciting ideas; rather it is a misguided crusade that offers voters little hope for those tired of politics as usual.
No wonder so many Republicans are angry.
For political junkies, the Republican race has so far been surprising and unpredictable. Real estate mogul Donald Trump has dominated media coverage and the polls since he announced his candidacy last June. From the very beginning he has exploited voter anger with caustic and abrasive rhetoric. Over the weekend he told a cheering Biloxi, Mississippi, audience, “People are so tired of the incompetence. They’re so tired of stupidity.” Trump has pledged to deport those who are in this country illegally, to build a wall along the Mexican border, and to temporarily stop Muslims from entering this country.
Meanwhile, Senator Cruz has played on voter anger to appeal to populist right voters with wild rhetoric like, "We will utterly destroy ISIS. We will carpet bomb them into oblivion. I don't know if sand can glow in the dark, but we're going to find out." In Iowa, where he appears to be leading, he has targeted conservative Christians with lines like, "If the body of Christ rises up as one and votes our values, we can turn this country around."
Voter anger is especially pronounced among Republicans. A NBC News/Survey Monkey/Esquire on line poll shows that 61% of Republicans "say that current events say that current events irk them more than a year ago." Only 41% of Democrats feel the same way.
As the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary approaches the large field of Republican candidates has begun attacking each other. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, campaigning in New Hampshire, railed against his opponents in remarks his staff released in advance Monday. “Bluster is not the leadership we crave. Talking a big game and either not showing up or not knowing how isn’t what we desperately need today.” Christie's speech was directed at Trump. “Anger alone is not a solution...America needs leaders who not only identify our problems, but who have the ability to repair our broken system. That’s what this election is all about."
Florida Senator Marco Rubio, whose disappointing campaign has so far failed to gain traction, attacked Trump in New Hampshire Monday. "The job is not described in the Constitution as 'entertainer in chief,' or 'commentator in chief,' or even, frankly, 'economist in chief.' It is described as Commander in Chief," he said. The self-righteous Rubio also observed, "We have Republican candidates who propose that rulers like Assad and Putin should be partners of the United States, and who have voted with Barack Obama and Harry Reid rather than with our men and women in uniform."
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, once thought to be the front-runner, has struggled for support despite being well financed. He has proven to be a weak candidate, and he is burdened by his brother's legacy, former President George W. Bush. Even his attack lines sound desperate and feeble. "Just one other thing -- I gotta get this off my chest -- Donald Trump is a jerk," he said at a town hall meeting last month in New Hampshire. In a Florida town hall meeting in late December he said Trump gets his foreign policy advice from television, "He wakes up in his pajamas and watches the TV shows on Saturday and Sunday."
The Republican campaign has deteriorated into a schoolhouse brawl. Candidates resort to personal attacks rather than to offering specific and detailed solutions to America's underlying problems. This is not a campaign of new and exciting ideas; rather it is a misguided crusade that offers voters little hope for those tired of politics as usual.
No wonder so many Republicans are angry.
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