Trump's Broken Promises

As President Donald Trump closes in on his first 100 days in office he is scrambling to defend his inept performance so far in office.  Perhaps this is best illustrated by his announcement last week that he was sending an armada toward North Korea, only to  find out Monday that it was on its way to Australia.  

Candidate Trump made big promises on the campaign trail.  His promises were targeted at key voting blocks in order to mobilize them to vote last November.  A crackdown on illegal immigration, a border wall with Mexico, tax reform, repeal and replacement of Obamacare, better trade deals, a ban on Muslims, extreme vetting, and a stronger military are among the issues Trump ran on.  The strategy gave the GOP control of the White House and both houses of Congress in a bitterly fought election, which included an assist from Russia.

On Tuesday President Trump told a rally in Kenosha, Wisconsin, "No administration has accomplished more in the first 90 days."  Never one to let the truth get in the way of a good story, it appeared that the president was trying out his talking points in advance of the 100-day mark.  But the truth is President Trump has failed to truly deliver on most of his promises.   And a  recent Gallup Poll shows that just 45% of Americans believe Trump keeps his promises, a sharp decline in two months.   

For seven years Republicans demonized President Barack Obama and this eponymous health care bill.  Candidate Trump promised to repeal and replace Obamacare on his first day in office.   But Republicans could not bridge the deep divisions within their own party, especially with the conservative House Freedom Caucus.  In February, a frustrated President Trump told a meeting of governors, "Nobody knew health care could be so complicated."  

House Speaker Paul Ryan had to withdraw his healthcare bill, even following heavy lobbying from the president, in large part because polls showed it had the support of about 17% of Americans. The GOP alternative would have kicked 24 million people off of heath insurance.  This is in sharp contrast to what Trump told 60 Minutes in 2015.  "I am going to take care of everybody.  I don't care if it costs me votes or not," he said, adding, "Everybody is going to be taken care of much better than they're taken care of now." 

The GOP healthcare bill is linked by party leadership to tax reform.  A repeal of Obamacare would mean a $1 trillion cut in taxes for the wealthy.  Republicans would then have an easier task of finding savings in the budget to secure further tax cuts.   The fate of tax reform is now uncertain.

The wall along the U.S. border with Mexico became a battle cry for Trump supporters during the campaign.  And candidate Trump insisted that Mexico would pay for the wall, which he estimated would cost $8 to $12 billion.  Mexican officials have been consistently adamant that they will not pay for the wall, which Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill, who sits on the Senate Homeland Security Committee, now estimates could "soar" to $70 billion in construction costs.   And to what end, since a majority of immigrants in the U.S. illegally either overstayed their visas or came on a ship?

With much fanfare the president signed a controversial executive order in late January which suspended the U.S. Refugee Program and denied entry to citizens of Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Sudan and Yemen.  The EO led to chaos at airports around the world, and international denunciations.  A federal judge blocked the order because it unfairly targeted Muslims, as thousands of protestors jammed airports around the country to oppose the order.   The EO was poorly conceived and executed, and led to internal finger pointing.  A new updated EO was issued in March, but it is subject to an indefinite preliminary injunction.   So much for Trump's Muslim ban.  

The president campaigned passionately against the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, which he has promised to renegotiate.  He said it was taking away American jobs.  But Trump will have great difficulty redoing this complex trade deal, and he knows it.  And now the president has reversed himself on his campaign charge that China is a currency manipulator.  Given the need to enlist China's support in dealing with North Korea, and following a meeting with the Chinese leader, Trump has flip-flopped.   Perhaps not so coincidentally, China approved three trademarks for Ivanka Trump's company on the same day she dined with her father and the Chinese president at Mar-a-Lago.  

The president has signed executive orders undoing some of President Obama's regulation, including related to the environment.  He was also able successfully appoint Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court with an assist from the Senate Republicans.  But Trump has had the worst first 100-days of any modern era president.  To exacerbate his problems, the probes continue into whether the Russians had any ties to members of the Trump campaign.  Infighting between chief strategist Steve Bannon and son-in-law Jerod Kushner has broken into the open and spawned unprecedented leaks to the media.  Trump continues his attacks on the "fake" media while tweeting reckless and untrue comments, like President Obama wiretapped him.  And Trump has decided to keep the White House visitor logs secret, which now raises questions about transparency.  

With Trump's popularity low and a rocky start of his presidency, Republicans are beginning to speak out.  Senator Joni Ernst distanced herself in comments at a town hall in Iowa yesterday.   "I think we have a president that has a number of flaws," she stated with unusual candor.  "I support a majority of his policies, versus the actual person, but I decry any time a person is ugly towards another person, I don't think that's appropriate."  She also said Trump should release his taxes.

Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress, so President Trump should have had an easy time achieving much of his agenda.  But governing takes a different set of skills than campaigning.  Trump's lying, personal attacks, distortion and distraction have worn thin on the very people he needs to support him.  So too, thankfully, has the list of unfulfilled promises, many of which would severely impact the very people who voted for Donald Trump because they mistakenly believed he alone could fix it. 

Immigration By The Numbers

The immigration issue has roiled the Republican Party as its presidential candidates attempt to appeal to the conservative, anti-immigration wing of their party in order to win their party's nomination.  But the GOP is going to pay a heavy toll in the 2016 national elections.  

Businessman Donald Trump fired the opening salvo last June when he announced he would run for president.  "When Mexico sends its people they're not sending their best," he said. "They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us.  They're bringing drugs.  They're bringing crime.  They're bringing rapists.  And some, I assume, are good people."  Trump has proposed building a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico (with a nice door) and promises he will get Mexico to pay for it.   

Trump raised the stakes this past Wednesday on MSNBC when he said, "You're going to have a deportation force, and you're going to do it humanely."  But he has yet to offer any specific details on how he will send an estimated 11 million undocumented workers out of the country.  It is hard to picture a "deportation force" humanely separating a Latino mother from her American born children.   

Nonetheless, Trump's position on immigration has resonated with party members.  In a national poll published in Roll Call, 49% of those identifying themselves as Republican agreed that Trump would best handle the immigration issue.  Trump's percent was five times higher than the second place finisher, Sen. Marco Rubio.  Trump has been so successful exploiting immigration to the Republican Party base that Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz are now publicly quibbling over each other's prior positions on the issue.  

The Republican National Committee following Gov. Mitt Romney’s loss in the 2012 national election identified immigration as a critical issue.   Romney had received just 23% of the Latino vote in his defeat.  By contrast, President George W. Bush received 44% of the Latino vote in his 2004 re-election.  The RNC released an autopsy report in early 2013 that called on Republicans to reach out to Latinos.  "Among the steps Republicans take in the Hispanic community and beyond, we must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform," the report stated. "If we do not, our Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only. We also believe that comprehensive immigration reform is consistent with Republican economic policies that promote job growth and opportunity for all."

Many Republican strategist have amplified this position.  Steve Schmidt, who ran Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign in 2008, has observed, "The long-term problem for Republicans is that in every demographic that is growing in the country, Democrats are gaining market share," he said last year in the Los Angeles Times, and "in every demographic group in the country that is shrinking, Republicans are gaining market share."

Romney beat President Barack Obama by 20% among white voters according to exit polls.  A Gallup Poll, released just ahead of the GOP autopsy report, showed that Non-Hispanic whites made up 89% of Republican self-identifiers, while Hispanics were only 6% of that group.   The problem for the Republican Party is that the Non-Hispanic white population is shrinking.  Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that here are more than 55 million Hispanics and their number is growing.  

The GOP may think that Senators Rubio and Cruz, both Cuban Americans, can help the party appeal to more Latinos, but each of their stands on immigration has hurt them among this voting segment.  Further, nearly 65% of the Latino population is Mexican American, while only 4% is Cuban American, and most live in Florida.  Nationally Latinos, especially Mexican Americans, prefer Democrats over Republicans.  And 81% of Latinos believe that unauthorized immigrants should not be deported.  As Gov. Rick Perry once said, "Oops."

Donald Trump's talk of a border wall and deportation squads may play well with conservatives in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, but it has seriously damaged the Republican brand with most Latinos.   It is likely that the Republican candidate will have to receive 40% of the Latino vote in order to be elected president.   

So don't count on the ultimate GOP standard bearer to maintain the hard-line position on immigration in the general election that was needed to win the nomination.   For instance, over the last few years both Rubio and Cruz have each changed their prior position on immigration for political expediency.   

Unless, of course, that nominee is Donald Trump.  Then who knows what will happen?  Except it will be humane and huge!

Trump vs. Ramos

Univision news anchor Jorge Ramos is a most powerful force in the Latino community.  His nightly newscast, which he has co-anchored with Maria Elena Salinas for nearly 30 years, draws more than two million viewers each evening.  In 2013 he told the Los Angeles Times, "The United States gave me opportunities that my country of origin could not: freedom of the press and complete freedom of expression."  

But Ramos' views were tested Tuesday night when Donald Trump had him removed from a news conference in Iowa.  "Go back to Univision," Trump dismissively scolded Ramos for persistently asking questions about the candidate's immigration policy without being called on.  As a member of one of Trump's security escorted Ramos from the room, the journalist said,  “I am a reporter. Don’t touch me. I have a right to ask the question.”

Trump and Ramos have one thing in common, they have both appeared on the cover of Time.  But they are on the opposite sides of an important issue that has dominated this year's Republican primary campaign: immigration.  Ramos, who had been attempting to get an interview with Trump for some time, asked the candidate about his call to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants and to build a wall along the Mexican border.  "Excuse me sir, you weren't called on," Trump responded.  "Sit down.  Sit down."

After Ramos had been escorted out of the room, Trump was asked why he wouldn't take a question from Ramos.  He then said he would take a question from Ramos, and soon the journalist returned to the room.  Trump called on Ramos, who asked questions about immigration.  A testy back-and-forth exchange took place between the two men.  

When Ramos pointed out that 71 per cent of Hispanics had an unfavorable view of the candidate according to a Univision poll, Trump pounced.   "How much am I suing Univision for?" he asked Ramos.  He then said, "$500 million, and you're in the suit."   He has sued Univision for cancelling its airings of the Trump owned Miss USA and Miss Universe pageants in response to his offensive remarks about Mexicans in his presidential announcement in June.   

Late Tuesday evening the National Association of Hispanic Journalists condemned Trump's treatment of Ramos at the Trump news conference.   In a statement, Mekahlo Medina, NAHJ President, said, “Ramos was simply trying to hold a candidate for president accountable for statements he made about a very important topic to the American people. Mr. Trump has avoided Mr. Ramos’ attempts for an interview to reasonably discuss Mr. Trump’s opinions and ideas about immigration and American children born to undocumented immigrants.”

Trump's actions Tuesday night were reprehensible and undemocratic.  60 per cent of the nearly 60 million Latinos in the United States were born in this country.  Hispanics make up this country's second largest voting block.  Those who only or mostly speak Spanish rely on Spanish language outlets, like Univision and Telemundo, to get their information.   Jorge Ramos is a highly respected and Emmy award winning journalist who has asked tough questions of President Barack Obama and countless other leading political figures.  He was not screaming, as Trump claimed, he was simply being persistent.

One of Donald Trump's strategies this campaign is to attack the press that he feels are not being "fair" to him.  He banned the Des Moines Register from Tuesday's press conference because it had published an editorial two months ago critical of Trump's comments about Senator John McCain of Arizona.  And he has again attacked Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly for being unfair to him at the Republican debate, including calling her a "Bimbo" on Twitter.  

While some ardent Trump supporters will no doubt support Trump's tactics against the press, over the long term most Americans will reject them because they are not good for the country.   Our democratic system will be put at great risk if candidates can ban or kick reporters out of public functions.  In 1823, Thomas Jefferson told Lafayette, "The only security of all is in a free press."  

Jorge Ramos, who became and American citizen in 2008, takes his role as a journalist seriously.  He left his job as a reporter in Mexico because he didn't want to be told what to say.  He has succeeded beyond his dreams in reporting on the issues and concerns of his audience.   He explained his interest in immigration in that Los Angeles Times interview.  "I am emotionally linked to this issue," Ramos said. "Because once you are an immigrant, you never forget that you are one."

The Homeland Security Impasse

 Minnesota's Mall of America was named this past weekend as a possible target of a terrorist attack in a one-hour video released by the militant Somali group al-Shabaab.   Concern about such an attack could not be higher, especially following on the heels of terrorist attacks in France and Denmark.  But that has not deterred congressional Republicans from playing games with America's security.

Republicans promised things would get better if they were put in charge of Congress.  Yet, due to a lack of leadership and seemingly irresolvable differences among their members, they are holding up funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which is set to run out this Friday. 

What kind of game is this?  Well, House Republicans, unhappy with President Barack Obama's executive order on immigration, have attached an amendment to the DHS funding bill that would stop the president's immigration action, which they consider illegal.  The strategy was to have the DHS funding bill pass with the immigration amendment attached.  If the president subsequently vetoed the measure he would be attacked for failing to protect the nation. 

But the Republican measure has not been able to clear the Senate because Republicans do not have enough votes to avoid a filibuster.   Democrats in Congress want a "clean bill" to fund DHS, one without any amendments.  Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.  If DHS funding runs out thousands of its employees will be furloughed, while 170,000 essential personal will have to work without pay.  "We need to fund the Department of Homeland Security," Senator John McCain (R-AZ) said Monday evening, "We cannot shut down the Department of Homeland Security." 

With Republicans facing increased criticism and blame for the impasse, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) proposed an alternative strategy.  He would allow a clean vote on the DHS funding bill, which is for one year, and then have a separate vote on a bill that would stop President Obama's executive actions on immigration.  His goal would be to make Democrats, who did not favor the president's executive action, have to vote on the record.

But Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) was more concerned that House Republicans would not go along with the proposal.  This is because House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) cannot control his own caucus.  And, sure enough, with McConnell's proposal only hours old, conservative House members spoke out against the gambit.   Rep. Matt Salmon (R-AZ) issued a statement saying, "The Senate Majority Leader’s plan to divorce the funding bill from the unlawful actions it is restricting is tantamount to surrender, and won’t meet with support in the People’s House."

Meanwhile, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), the man responsible for the 2013 government shutdown, issued a statement of his own.   "Leadership's current plan -- to pass clean DHS funding and separate legislation barring executive amnesty -- is a mistake," Cruz said. "Congress is obliged to use every constitutional check and balance we have to rein in President Obama's lawlessness, and that includes both our confirmation authority over nominees and the power of the purse."

Last week a Texas federal judge halted implementation of the president's executive order on immigration.  The case is likely to take some time to work its way through the courts.  This has led many observers to wonder why Republicans just don't go ahead with a clean DHS funding bill and let the courts deal with the legality of the president's action on immigration.  

That would seem like common sense, especially considering the increased terrorist threats.  But common sense does not apply in Washington, least of all for congressional Republicans. 

Obama on a Roll

President Barack Obama is entering the fourth quarter of his presidency, one marked by partisan divisions that have frustrated most Americans. But the president, as he makes the turn for the finish line, has already wracked up an impressive list of accomplishments during his tenure despite the blindly fierce Republican opposition.

Since his party's defeat in the midterm elections, President Obama has taken the initiative. He has announced that the U.S. would normalize relations with Cuba, as well as an executive order on immigration, and a climate treaty with China. Each of these announcements is historic in their own right. And together they signal the president is not going quietly into the night.

President Obama has enjoyed a great deal of good news these past six weeks. Government estimates show that the U.S. economy grew at a spectacular 5 percent, and the Dow Jones stock index reached record highs, fueled in part by corporate profits, which have been up year-over-year for 12 straight quarters.

Unemployment is at 5.8 percent, the lowest rate since the president took office. Total nonfarm payroll increased by 321,000 in November, led by professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing. Meanwhile, fuel prices continue to drop as the price of gas has fallen for 89 consecutive days. AAA says that this is the longest streak on record, and that prices have fallen 36 percent since last April.

Falling gas prices have hit both Russia and Iran hard, along with U.S. led sanctions. Just a few months ago Republicans were praising President Vladimir Putin for his leadership traits as Russia annexed Crimea and caused unrest in parts of Ukraine. Now Putin is struggling mightily to keep his economy afloat. Those same Republicans criticized the president for attempting to negotiate a nuclear treaty with Iran. Yet falling gas prices and tough sanctions have brought the Iranians closer to making a deal than any saber rattling ever did.

The president's strategy for handling ISIS has stopped that group's momentum. The president formed a coalition of countries to launch targeted air attacks, and he helped nudge the failing Iraqi government back from the brink. He has also kept America safe from terrorism, and he made the killing of Osama bin Laden a top priority.

North Korea posed a serious threat with its alleged cyber-hacking of SONY's emails. This in response to a movie, The Interview, which is a comedy focused on North Korea's leader. But it has been reported that President Obama, who promised a proportional retaliation, discussed the matter with China. Suddenly, North Korea lost its Internet connection. Now the movie will be released after all on Christmas Day.

And the president's singular greatest legislative success, the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, has expanded healthcare to millions of uninsured Americans, and it has helped significantly lower the rate of growth of health care costs. His 2009 stimulus package put the breaks on the crashing economy, and his auto bailout preserved thousands of jobs. Today, the U.S. auto industry is healthy. Each of these initiatives was done in spite of furious opposition from Republicans.

Lately President Obama has looked like that confident leader American voters thought they elected way back in 2008. Since his first day in office he has been attacked continuously by conservatives. He has been accused by many of his Republican opponents of being born in Kenya, a Muslim, an emperor, disengaged, distant, a liar, and ill-prepared for the office. On the very day the president was first sworn into office, Republican leaders vowed, in a secret meeting, to do all they could to block, delay, denounce and defeat him. For them it was war.

Throughout his first six years in office, the president has remained persistent, while being buffeted by the partisan winds, and the thunderous exhortations of so-called experts and conservative political pundits. Of course, in today's media landscape, anyone can be a critic and get airtime.

Even his supporters sometimes express frustration because the president has refused to act for the sake of acting, shoot from the hip, or jump to conclusions. His approach, no matter the issue, has been measured, studied, thoughtful, cerebral and yes, lawyerly.

Beginning in January, Republicans will be the majority party in both houses of Congress. They will try to repeal Obamacare, undo the president's immigration order, stop normalization of relations with Cuba, pass the Keystone Pipeline, cut federal social programs,and spend taxpayer dollars re-investigating Benghazi and the IRS. There will be the usual shrill denunciations of the president, and some GOP members may move to impeach him.

Of course, for President Obama, it'll be just another day at the office.