Obama on a Roll

President Barack Obama is entering the fourth quarter of his presidency, one marked by partisan divisions that have frustrated most Americans. But the president, as he makes the turn for the finish line, has already wracked up an impressive list of accomplishments during his tenure despite the blindly fierce Republican opposition.

Since his party's defeat in the midterm elections, President Obama has taken the initiative. He has announced that the U.S. would normalize relations with Cuba, as well as an executive order on immigration, and a climate treaty with China. Each of these announcements is historic in their own right. And together they signal the president is not going quietly into the night.

President Obama has enjoyed a great deal of good news these past six weeks. Government estimates show that the U.S. economy grew at a spectacular 5 percent, and the Dow Jones stock index reached record highs, fueled in part by corporate profits, which have been up year-over-year for 12 straight quarters.

Unemployment is at 5.8 percent, the lowest rate since the president took office. Total nonfarm payroll increased by 321,000 in November, led by professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing. Meanwhile, fuel prices continue to drop as the price of gas has fallen for 89 consecutive days. AAA says that this is the longest streak on record, and that prices have fallen 36 percent since last April.

Falling gas prices have hit both Russia and Iran hard, along with U.S. led sanctions. Just a few months ago Republicans were praising President Vladimir Putin for his leadership traits as Russia annexed Crimea and caused unrest in parts of Ukraine. Now Putin is struggling mightily to keep his economy afloat. Those same Republicans criticized the president for attempting to negotiate a nuclear treaty with Iran. Yet falling gas prices and tough sanctions have brought the Iranians closer to making a deal than any saber rattling ever did.

The president's strategy for handling ISIS has stopped that group's momentum. The president formed a coalition of countries to launch targeted air attacks, and he helped nudge the failing Iraqi government back from the brink. He has also kept America safe from terrorism, and he made the killing of Osama bin Laden a top priority.

North Korea posed a serious threat with its alleged cyber-hacking of SONY's emails. This in response to a movie, The Interview, which is a comedy focused on North Korea's leader. But it has been reported that President Obama, who promised a proportional retaliation, discussed the matter with China. Suddenly, North Korea lost its Internet connection. Now the movie will be released after all on Christmas Day.

And the president's singular greatest legislative success, the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, has expanded healthcare to millions of uninsured Americans, and it has helped significantly lower the rate of growth of health care costs. His 2009 stimulus package put the breaks on the crashing economy, and his auto bailout preserved thousands of jobs. Today, the U.S. auto industry is healthy. Each of these initiatives was done in spite of furious opposition from Republicans.

Lately President Obama has looked like that confident leader American voters thought they elected way back in 2008. Since his first day in office he has been attacked continuously by conservatives. He has been accused by many of his Republican opponents of being born in Kenya, a Muslim, an emperor, disengaged, distant, a liar, and ill-prepared for the office. On the very day the president was first sworn into office, Republican leaders vowed, in a secret meeting, to do all they could to block, delay, denounce and defeat him. For them it was war.

Throughout his first six years in office, the president has remained persistent, while being buffeted by the partisan winds, and the thunderous exhortations of so-called experts and conservative political pundits. Of course, in today's media landscape, anyone can be a critic and get airtime.

Even his supporters sometimes express frustration because the president has refused to act for the sake of acting, shoot from the hip, or jump to conclusions. His approach, no matter the issue, has been measured, studied, thoughtful, cerebral and yes, lawyerly.

Beginning in January, Republicans will be the majority party in both houses of Congress. They will try to repeal Obamacare, undo the president's immigration order, stop normalization of relations with Cuba, pass the Keystone Pipeline, cut federal social programs,and spend taxpayer dollars re-investigating Benghazi and the IRS. There will be the usual shrill denunciations of the president, and some GOP members may move to impeach him.

Of course, for President Obama, it'll be just another day at the office.

Debt Ceiling Showdown

No wonder Congress is so unpopular. Last year's House and Senate teamed up to be the most ineffective Congress in decades. Sadly, the new Congress looks like it is going to underperform its predecessor.

In the next few weeks, Congress must decide whether to raise the debt ceiling. Under law, the debt ceiling limits the U.S. Treasury's authority to borrow money to pay for decisions already enacted by Congress and the president. In other words, the government needs Congress's approval to raise money to pay its bills.

If Congress fails to raise the debt limit, America will be in default. In 2011, the rancorous debate over raising the debt limit caused bond-rating agencies to downgrade America's credit. Though the debt ceiling was raised, the government (i.e. taxpayers) had to pay higher interest on money it borrowed.

The near crisis also had an adverse affect for America in the global markets.
So here Americans are again, after surviving the end of the world, supposedly predicted by the Mayans, and after avoiding the fiscal cliff, on the verge of yet another financial crisis. The fact that Republicans would use raising the debt ceiling as "leverage" to secure deep budget cuts, largely in entitlement programs, is irresponsible.

In his appearance on ABC's This Week Sunday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell ruled out additional tax increases as part of a debt ceiling or deficit reduction deal. "That's behind us. Now the question is, what are we going to do about the biggest problem confronting our country and our future? And that's our spending addiction. It's time to confront it," Senator McConnell said. "The president surely knows that. I mean, he has mentioned it both publicly and privately. The time to confront it is now." Senator McConnell indicated he would not approve action on the debt ceiling without sizable budget cuts.

But, in his weekly radio address, the president, who was able to get Congress to pass tax increases on high-income earners, was adamant about not using the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip. "One thing I will not compromise over is whether or not Congress should pay the tab for a bill they've already racked up," President Obama said. "If Congress refuses to give the United States the ability to pay its bills on time, the consequences for the entire global economy could be catastrophic. The last time Congress threatened this course of action, our entire economy suffered for it. Our families and our businesses cannot afford that dangerous game."

America is in the midst of a slow recovery. Unemployment is still unacceptably high, and consumers are wary of the future. Yet who can blame them given Congress's erratic behavior. Most Americans feel a responsibility to pay back the money they owe in a timely manner. They full well know the consequences of failing to do so, including having their credit rating reduced.

If Congress fails to act it risks another downgrade of U.S. Treasury bonds. Brian Kessler, of Moody's Analytics, told MarketWatch, "For the last 60-ish years, U.S. Treasury bonds have been the foundational rock of the entire world financial markets. A second downgrade could be like an earthquake on that financial rock." He added, "I'm very nervous that people in Washington don't really take that seriously enough."

In the 2011 debt ceiling debate, The Economic Policy Institute said that failure to raise the limit would create, "a massive shock to the economy." It further warned, "Social Security checks would be cut, doctors would not be reimbursed in full for seeing Medicare and Medicaid patients, and private contractors doing business with the federal government would not be paid." Ditto for 2012.

Making matters even more complicated are upcoming debates over the "sequester" spending cuts to defense and domestic spending, agreed to as part of the 2011 debt ceiling deal, and a stopgap bill that will likely be needed in March to keep the government operating.

Congressional Republicans must act responsibly by putting country ahead of partisan politics. They must vote to raise the debt ceiling. American cannot endure another self-inflicted wound from Congress.

The U.S. Constitution defines the powers it grants Congress. They include: "The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States." If Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling it will weaken the country and fail to provide for the general welfare of the United States.
  

Obama's Leadership

As Americans try to enjoy Labor Day weekend this year too many find themselves without a job and with little hope of finding employment in the near future. This is because Washington remains embroiled in a partisan battle over what steps to take to get the economy growing again.

The latest unemployment statistics released Friday were dismal. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the official jobless rate for August held at 9.1%, for the first time since World War II there were no new jobs added to the economy. Black unemployment hit 16.7%, the highest it has been in three decades, and 11.3% of Hispanics are out of work. Equally depressing was the fact that on Thursday the White House forecast the unemployment rate will be 9.1% for 2011 and only slightly better in 2012, 9.0%.

In response, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) called President Barack Obama's economic policies "abysmal." In a written statement he continued, "The President’s policies have failed to deliver on his promises of job creation, deficit reduction, and much-needed economic growth.” House Speaker John Boehner (R-Oh) simply Tweeted, "Where are the jobs?"

Over the past three months the U.S. economy has added an anemic average of 35,000 jobs. It takes an addition of 150,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. Meanwhile companies are hoarding $2 trillion dollars, primarily due to the lack of consumer demand, that could be invested in their businesses. And many Americans, suffering the the adverse effects of a terrible housing market, are reluctant to spend.

There is plenty of blame to go around for this country's economic woes. But Americans are tired of Washington's "blame game." Most of them understand that President Obama inherited an economy in free fall and he took important steps to avert a second Great Depression. But the president has been in office for forty months and it appears nothing has changed when it comes to the economy.

Enormous pressure is focused on the president, who will address the nation next Thursday. The president is expected to announce several initiatives to get people working again. The New York Times reports that they will include a tax credit for businesses to increase their payrolls, an extension of the payroll tax credit for individuals and an infrastructure bank targeted at fixing roads and railways. Congressional Republicans will likely be able to block or delay implementation of all the president's proposals. And even if Congress passed an infrastructure bank, it will take months to begin feeling the impact.

The November 2012 presidential election will most likely be decided on who voters think can get America back to work again. Republicans will turn the election into a referendum on President Obama's handling of the economy. For political reasons they will do all they can to forestall any progress over the next year. Instead they will proffer their own pro-business, deficit-reducing initiatives.

In order to make a strong case for his reelection the president must be able to demonstrate that he has this country on the right track to a sounder economy. The president must make big bold proposals to reduce unemployment in his speech next week and then follow it up with a fierce and well-executed campaign against Republicans to get his agenda passed.

President Obama must give Americans a reason to vote for him. To do so the president must now show, in a two words, unrelenting leadership.

Bold Leadership

As Republican presidential candidates intensely jockey for position the White House is having internal debates over what approach President Barack Obama should take on the struggling U.S. economy. With fifteen months to go until the 2012 presidential election, President Obama must begin to turn things around if he is to be reelected to a second term.

The Iowa straw poll and the Republican debate last Thursday, while showing deep divisions within that party, manifested great unity among the candidates in a common purpose to defeat President Obama. Contenders bashed the president's failure to right the economy and lead the nation toward recovery. They attacked the burgeoning annual deficits the Obama administration has incurred and they slammed the lack of progress on the nation's painfully high unemployment rate, which is still more than 9%.

Of course, Republican candidates blamed President Obama for Standard and Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. Never mind that S&P did not single out the president in its report, "The prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process."

President Obama did inherit from President George W. Bush the worst recession since the Great Depression. And recent revisions in economic data show that the U.S. economy was declining at a faster rate than previously thought. The unemployment rate was at 7.1% when President Bush stepped down but it was in a nosedive. The former president handed off huge annual deficits, in large part due to the Bush tax cuts, two wars and the Medicare Prescription Drug and Modernization Act, all unfunded. Further, the financial markets had collapsed and the U.S. housing market, heavily over leveraged due to weak oversight, was in shambles.

From the moment President Barack Obama took office Republicans in Congress have fiercely fought the president on every one of his initiatives. They pushed back hard on a stimulus plan that helped avoid another depression, emergency measures that saved the U.S. auto industry, as well as financial and health care reform. In each case the resulting legislation was demagogued and ultimately watered down. Of course, the very Republicans who criticized the stimulus bill most harshly, including Governor Rick Perry of Texas and Representative
Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, used the funds to their political advantage.

Since the 2010 mid term elections the conservative Tea Party faction that is passionately committed to spending cuts and no new taxes has kept the Republican Congressional leadership in line. Most Republicans legislators have signed Grover Norquist's pledge not to raise taxes. So powerful is that pledge that every GOP candidate in Thursday's debate said they would not approve a compromise consisting of $10 in cuts for $1 dollar in new taxes.

Compromise is a dirty word for Republicans. Cutting government spending and lowering taxes, they say, is the best way to grow the economy. Yet the Bush tax cuts resulted in little job growth during his presidency, and recent government spending cuts, especially at the state level, has resulted in a half million layoffs nationwide.

Many economists believe a balanced approach, that is some increased revenues as well as spending cuts, is the best path to recovery in the short term. Polls show a majority of Americans favor ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. Yet Republicans successfully linked increasing the debt ceiling to more spending cuts. No spending cuts would have meant not raising the debt ceiling. That is like a family going to the bank and saying they are not going to pay all their loans until they are able to cut their household expenses.

This brinksmanship in Congress, the lack of a sustained recovery in the U.S. and the near collapse of the world economy are together creating chaos on the financial markets. That leaves the road ahead uncertain and millions of unemployed Americans with little hope.

The Republicans have President Obama cornered between a rock and a hard place. While some in the White House recommend a middle course, which may appeal to independent voters, it seems most unlikely that such an approach will be enough to assure him reelection. This is especially true when contrasted to GOP political attacks, such as "a failed economic policy”, "the first president in history to be downgraded", and “record deficit spending.”

While the president remains personally popular among Americans, his job approval ratings are declining. This is the time for bold action on the part of the president. He must go on the offensive with a strong jobs plan, and show he is willing to take the lead in restoring hope for all Americans. That would be change one can believe in.