The 2014 Midterm Elections

With less than 10 weeks to go before the midterm Congressional elections Americans in general are frustrated with Washington.  National polls show that about three quarters of all Americans disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job.  By comparison, about half of those Americans polled disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of his job. 

Sunday's New York Post reported that 163 laws have been passed and signed by the president since this two-year term of Congress began in January 2013.  That is far lower than the 284 laws that were passed by the 2011-2013 session, which is an all time record for fewest bills passed.  Congress passed 386 laws during the 2009-2011 session.   Former Representative Lee Hamilton (R-IN) told the Post, "I've never seen it any worse in terms of public esteem for the Congress.  I can't find anybody who says a good word about it."

Despite Congress's lack of productivity, and as outrageous as it may seem, it appears that most incumbents will be reelected in November.   Conventional wisdom is that while most Americans want to get rid of Congress, they nonetheless support their own representative.  This is especially true during midterm elections because voter turnout is often very low, which gives incumbents an advantage.  But both parties are leaving nothing to chance, as a record amount of campaign dollars will be poured into this election, surpassing the $3.6 billion spent in 2010.   

Republicans currently hold a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives, 233-199; there are three vacant seats.  The GOP expects to expand its majority in the House.  Meanwhile, Democrats currently hold a majority in the Senate.  But of the 36 Senate seats in play, 21 of them held by Democrats, while 15 are held by Republicans.  If the GOP picks up six Senate seats this midterm they will be in the majority in both houses of Congress.  Most experts, including Nate Silver, of the election site FiveThirtyEight, give Republicans a slight edge to take those seats and become the majority party in the Senate.  

The Republicans are targeting the seven Democratic seats that are up in states where Mitt Romney beat President Obama in the 2012 presidential election.  They are also going after four additional Democratic seats in states where the president remains unpopular.  Republicans will do all they can to make this election about President Obama's unpopularity. 

Domestically the president has been attacked for executive actions he has taken to bypass the blockade that Congress has become.  For example, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who himself has presidential aspirations, has regularly attacked the president, telling Fox News "He believes somehow that he's become a monarch or an emperor that can basically ignore the law and do whatever he wants."  On the other hand, Republicans have attacked President Obama for being disengaged and "leading from behind" on foreign policy.  The president's recent comment the he does not have a strategy on dealing with ISIS in Syria was seized upon by Republicans.  Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI), said on CBS Sunday,  "What I want to hear from the president is that he has a strategy to finish ISIS off, to defeat ISIS."

Congressional and Senate Democratic candidates have tried to localize their elections, but Republicans are focusing on President Obama in an effort to energize their base.  So Democrats are trying to mobilize minority voters,  especially African-Americans, who generally don't vote in midterms.  Party activists are using the shooting in Ferguson, Mo., and conservative calls to impeach the president, to mobilize Blacks.  An increase in the number of Southern Blacks helped Democrats during the 1998 midterm election, when President Bill Clinton was under heavy fire from the right.

Ironically, the one Republican Senator who is in the toughest fight to be reelected is the man who has the most to gain if Republicans win majority control.  Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky), the Senate minority leader, has done all he can to obstruct and block the agenda of President Obama since the day he was sworn in to office in 2009.  McConnell is facing a vigorous challenge from Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.  McConnell is not popular in Kentucky, but a recent state poll shows he has the edge.  Lundergan Grimes is making McConnell's failings in Congress the issue.  But McConnell is tying his opponent to President Obama.  

Should Republicans take control of both houses the legislative process will grind to a halt.  Anything the Republicans pass, like efforts to defund Obamacare, will be vetoed by the president.  Meanwhile, congressional investigations into the so-called scandals surrounding the IRS and Benghazi will intensify.  The partisan divide will widen as Republicans try to score points before the 2016 Presidential Elections.   

Because so much is at stake, this coming election day is not a time for eligible voters to stay home.

Republican Deaf Ears

Much of the country kicked off the New Year with heavy snowstorms followed by a blast of frigid cold temperatures.   But for 1.3 million Americans, whose unemployment checks have been cut off, this may be the coldest winter of all.

Congress returns on Monday, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says he will schedule a vote on extending unemployment benefits.  But the outcome is uncertain.  Many Republicans in both houses of Congress are opposed to extending benefits; especially those in the GOP controlled House of Representatives.   One administration official predicted Wednesday that failure to extend emergency unemployment insurance through 2014 will have a negative impact on 14 million Americans.   It will also have an adverse effect on the nation's slowly recovering economy because those affected will not be able to buy food and supplies.

Republicans, led by their Tea Party wing, have staked out a series of positions that, when viewed on whole, may leave them vulnerable in future elections.  The president has proposed raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10, which one recent study says will lift 5 million people out of poverty.  Republicans argue against such a move because they believe it is inflationary and it will end up costing jobs.

Congressional Republicans are also sparring with Democrats over their desire to reign in food stamps, citing cost, fraud and abuse.  But a recent statistical report released by the Department of Agriculture shows that the amount of food stamps given out in error is at an all time low, about 3%.  In 2000 the error rate was nearly 9%.

On Tuesday, a federal judge struck down a Florida law that required welfare applicants to undergo mandatory drug testing.  Republican Governor Rick Scott campaigned on the issue, and got the law enacted, arguing that it would ensure tax money was not going to illegal drugs.  A subsequent state study found that only 108 out of 4,086 people tested, 2.6%, were using narcotics.  The state records show that the program was costing more than it was saving.  Yet several other Republican dominated states have enacted a similar law, and Governor Scott has said the state will appeal the ruling.

The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, has been under attack from Republicans since it before it became law.  House Republicans have voted nearly 50 times to repeal the law.  The ACA, which got off to a terrible start due to problems with the federal website, provides many benefits.  It requires insurers to cover people with preexisting conditions, it ends lifetime or yearly caps on coverage, it makes it illegal for insurers to drop someone because they get sick, and it extends coverage to children under 26.   Most importantly, it gives 40 million uninsured Americans access to health care coverage, and it has already reduced the soaring growth of health care costs.  Yet Republicans do not have a plan to replace any of these benefits should their repeal efforts actually become successful.

Conservative Republicans are opposed to meaningful immigration reform.   There are now more than 11 million immigrants living illegally in the United States.  Hispanics and other minorities, who largely vote for Democrats, have been pushing for legislation to no avail.  Meanwhile, many Republican controlled states have enacted tough voter identification laws, citing massive voter fraud.   But the reported incidents of voter fraud in these states are actually minuscule.  Yet these laws fall disproportionately hard on minorities and the elderly, groups that vote for Democrats.

Following President Barack Obama's reelection and important Republican Congressional loses in the 2012 national elections, GOP Chairman Reince Priebus released an autopsy report assessing the reasons for the party's poor performance.  The findings were blunt.  At one point the report says the voters believe that "the GOP does not care about them and is doing great harm."  

It appears that the report has fallen on deaf ears.