Too Close To Call

President Barack Obama's chances of winning a second term appear better today than at anytime in the past two years, but there are plenty of things that could go wrong between now and November.

According to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll the president's approval rating has reached 50%, in part because the economy is slowly improving. According to the poll, 34% of Americans believe that the economy is getting better, up 6% from a month earlier. Still 59% of those surveyed think the country is on the wrong track, though those saying it is on the right track increased in the last month from 29% to 35%. Yet 50% of the respondents still disapprove of the president's handling of the economy while 44% approve. At a minimum these numbers reflect a great deal of uncertainty about the economy which will likely be the most important issue for voters next November.

With a bit of wind at his back, the president is now leading each of the potential Republican candidates according to the poll. The Republicans have been engaged in a negative and divisive primary that has hurt each of the candidates, especially presumed front-runner Mitt Romney. And 57% of Republicans think the tough primary will hurt their party's chances in November’s presidential election.

The CBS News/New York Times poll shows that former Senator Rick Santorum has surged into the lead over Romney. The Romney campaign immediately responded with a barrage of negative attack ads against Santorum. If the former Pennsylvania Senator can win the Michigan and Arizona primaries in two weeks he will give the Romney campaign a near fatal blow.

Romney grew up in Michigan and he was thought to have a home state advantage. But a recent state poll shows Santorum is in front. Santorum's appeal in this rustbelt state seems to be his genuineness and his blue-collar upbringing. But with success will come more scrutiny into his record in office and his views on social issues. His positions on contraception and women in the military do not reflect the views of most Americans.

While the Republicans duke it out the president must navigate through some very tricky waters. Republicans in Congress have vowed they will do all they can to stop President Obama from winning a second term. Meanwhile, this country’s economic recovery is fragile. Making matters even more precarious, Europe is struggling to manage their difficult economic crisis, the outcome of which will impact the U.S.

Of even greater concern are reports that Iran is continuing to build a nuclear bomb and that it is behind a series of terrorist attacks against Israel. A war between Israel and Iran could break out before the November elections and America’s hand will be forced.  This as Afghanistan, Syria, China and Russia each are ongoing difficult diplomatic challenges for the U.S. 

The president may very well be winning head-to-head against Santorum, Romney, Gingrich or Paul. But when the Republicans select their nominee, no matter who's left standing, the race will tighten. Because this country is deeply divided, perhaps 45% Republican and 45% Democrat, the winner will need an energized base and a majority of the independents.

And maybe an endorsement from Knick Jeremy Lin would help?

Here Comes Newt

On the eve of the South Carolina primary the Republican race has been turned on its head by two developments that may have a profound impact on the campaign. The question now is can frontrunner Mitt Romney beat off the surging Newt Gingrich to win his party's nomination?

Texas Governor Rick Perry withdrew from the presidential race because he was not getting any traction with South Carolina voters and he didn't want to help split the conservative vote and hand Romney a sizable win Saturday. Instead, he threw his support to Gingrich saying, "I believe Newt is a conservative visionary who can transform our country."

Perry acknowledged that he and Gingrich have "had our differences," but he went on to say, "I have no question that Newt has the heart of a conservative... with the ability to rally and captivate the conservative movement." This was a clear message to voters that he believes Romney is not a true conservative.

Gingrich's record as Speaker of the House has been under assault by negative Super PAC ads in support of Romney. And questions have been raised about Gingrich's personal life, including a claim by his second wife the he asked for an "open marriage." Perry seemed to address these criticisms in his remarks. "Newt is not perfect, but who among us is," Perry said. "There is forgiveness for those who seek God, and I believe in the power of redemption for it is a central tenant of my Christian faith."

Propelled by his recent debate performance, Gingrich has been closing the gap in recent polls taken among South Carolina voters. On the other hand, Romney has been seeing his lead erode over the past few days. To make matters worse for the former Massachusetts Governor, on Thursday the Iowa Republican Party revised their final caucus totals giving Rick Santorum a 34 vote lead over Romney. No longer can Romney claim he won an unprecedented victory in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Game on!

Gingrich wasted no time in embracing Perry's endorsement and in enlisting Perry to lead a "10th Amendment Enforcement Project" that, if successful, would ultimately restore more power to the states while curtailing the role of the federal government. The 10th Amendment says that, "Powers not granted to the federal government nor prohibited to the States by the Constitution are reserved to the States." This is a key issue for many conservatives who may see this as bold and imaginative leadership. But taking power away from the federal government and giving it back to the states is a most controversial and complex issue.

While Gingrich and Santorum both received a big boost to their campaigns on Thursday, Romney has suffered largely self-inflicted wounds over the past few weeks. For example, he fumbled his handling of when and if he will release his tax returns. Under immense pressure he finally admitted on Wednesday that his income tax rate was about 15%, or the rate paid on capital gains that is largely the source of his income from his Bain Capital investments. But are any of those investments parked offshore?

Romney supporters, such as New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, have urged the former Massachusetts Governor to release his tax returns as soon as possible. But the always-opportunistic Newt Gingrich seized the moment by releasing his tax returns on Thursday.

Republican voters in South Carolina now find themselves with a horse race. Will Romney be able to hold on? Will Gingrich be able to rally enough support to pull out a victory? Will Santorum be helped by is narrow victory in Iowa? Will Representative Ron Paul be able to capitalize on the chaos?

There is no question that Romney is now feeling intense pressure and he is on the defensive. In a heated exchange with a protestor on Thursday in South Carolina he called for unity and emphatically denounced those who were dividing the nation. Perhaps he should take a closer look at himself.

Game On

Tuesday's Iowa caucuses resulted in a slim eight-vote victory for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, as well as an important win for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who finished second. Now, as the GOP candidates pivot to next week's New Hampshire primary, the war of words has already intensified.

Iowa claimed the campaign's first victim as Representative Michele Bachmann dropped out of the race following her poor performance. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich finished a disappointing fourth in Iowa after being bombarded over the airwaves by negative ads sponsored by supporters of Romney and Representative Ron Paul. He said he was “stunned by the volume of negative ads” and accused Romney of being untruthful.

Gingrich wasted no time aiming verbal shots at Romney, and a wounded Gingrich could be very dangerous for the former governor. "He's a Massachusetts moderate who will be pretty good at managing the decay of the country but will not change the culture," Gingrich told his followers Tuesday night. Then on Wednesday, after arriving in New Hampshire, Gingrich accused Romney of raising taxes in Massachusetts when he was governor, creating Romneycare, accommodating taxpayer funded abortions, funding Planned Parenthood and appointing liberal judges.

Romney has enjoyed a comfortable lead up to now in polls of New Hampshire Republicans, but Santorum's momentum and Gingrich's attacks could hurt him. Santorum, a Catholic, may be especially appealing to the large Catholic population in the Granite State. His family values message and very personal campaign style may resonate with undecided voters. A recent New Hampshire poll showed Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman a distant second and third to Romney, but it also showed that Santorum was already gaining some support.

Romney built a firewall in New Hampshire, where he owns a residence, and a win there, along with his tight victory in Iowa, would make him the first person not already serving as president to win both. But a strong showing by Santorum would further energize his campaign as the candidates move to the South Carolina and Florida primaries.

The South Carolina primary takes place on January 21. Texas Governor Rick Perry was so disappointed in his Iowa performance that Tuesday night he said he would reassess his campaign. But on Wednesday he announced he was heading to South Carolina to resume his campaign. Santorum could be the beneficiary of Bachmann's withdrawal and Perry's wavering commitment in South Carolina. Meanwhile Romney has been polling in the low 20's and Gingrich has been hurt by negative ads.

The Florida primary, on January 31, may turn out to be a critical showdown. A poll in mid December showed Romney (27%) and Gingrich (26%) to be leading. But things are very fluid. Some candidates have begun airing ads in the Sunshine State and 370,000 Republican voters have taken out absentee ballots.

So the heated battle for the Republican nomination will continue for several more weeks. The party is divided between traditional center-right Republicans and the Tea Party and Christian right factions. They are fighting over the future direction of the party. It is unclear whether conservative Santorum's strong showing in Iowa will be enough to propel him into a commanding lead. But many conservatives note that three-quarters of Iowa caucus goers did not vote for Romney, the party's presumed frontrunner and leading flip-flopper.

Meanwhile, Gingrich told MSNBC, "By the time [Romney] gets to South Carolina and Florida it will be obvious, this is not a conservative Republican. He is not going to win the nomination and he is not the most electable candidate."

As Santorum says, "Game on!"

Republican Slugfest

With the Iowa Caucuses little more than two weeks away the two Republican frontrunners are now in a slugfest. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged into the lead in several state polls, including Iowa, Florida and South Carolina, leaving Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney rattled.

Now Romney is sounding more desperate and flustered. In Saturday night's Republican debate Romney inexplicably offered to bet Texas Governor Rick Perry $10,000 that he was misrepresenting Romney's position on individual mandates, which are part of Romneycare. While that is a substantial amount of money for most Iowans, it is not for multimillionaire Mitt Romney. And it didn't play well in Des Moines.

On Monday Romney decided to come out swinging, but it sounded more like the pot calling the kettle black. Romney attacked Gingrich's work for Freddie Mac, the government sponsored mortgage company that has been lambasted by conservatives. Romney called on Gingrich to return the millions he made working for Freddie Mac after he left office. Romney told Fox News, "One of the things that I think that people recognize in Washington is that people go there to serve the people and then they stay there to serve themselves."

But Gingrich later responded to Romney harshly. "I love the way he and his consultants do these things," Gingrich said. "I would just say that if Gov. Romney would like to give back all the money he's earned from bankrupting companies and laying off employees over his years at Bain, then I would be glad to listen to him and I'll bet you $10 dollars -- not $10,000 -- that he won't take the offer." Romney founded Bain Capital in 1984, an investment and consulting company. Romney is now worth more than $200 million.

Gingrich and Romney have many things in common. They are both very wealthy. In fact, Gingrich has bragged he regularly gets $60,000 to make a speech; the median family annual income in the United States is about $50,000. They have both supported health care mandates. Both supported the Wall Street bailouts, government subsidies for ethanol and agree that humans play a role in climate change. And, most noteworthy, both are serial flip-floppers on several issues.

But in Saturday's debate, Governor Romney pointed to his lengthy career in the private sector as the reason he is the best qualified to turn the American economy around. Gingrich wasn't buying it, "The only reason you didn't become a career politician is you lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994. It's a bit much. You'd have been a 17-year career politician by now if you'd won."

No doubt Gingrich was not amused by an earlier Romney political ad in which he claimed to be a man of "steadiness and constancy." In his narration Romney said, "I've been married to the same woman for 25 -- excuse me, I'll get in trouble -- for 42 years. I've been in the same church my entire life. I worked at one company, Bain, for 25 years. And I left that to go off and help save the Olympics." This was clearly attack on Gingrich's personal life.

This is Romney's second attempt at the Republican presidential nomination; he first ran in 2008. Since he declared his candidacy last April he has devoted all of his energies to getting nominated. While has always been among the frontrunners, Romney has never been able to get more than 25% in Republican polls. The reason is simple: they just don't trust him.

Gingrich was written off a few weeks ago by most observers. He is intelligent and energetic, yet he is equally unpredictable and mercurial. And, despite all his flaws, he has now emerged as the darling of the right because they are willing to forgive his past transgressions. His debate performances have lifted him to the top and his supporters believe he is best able to take on President Barack Obama in a debate.

Two weeks is a long time in politics, especially given the intensity of this race. But an almost certain victory in the Iowa Caucuses and a strong showing in the New Hampshire Primary against frontrunner Romney will likely propel Gingrich to victories in the South Carolina and Florida primaries. But Romney will fight on.

The ultimate winner of the Republican nomination will have to unite a battered party in order to defeat President Barack Obama. And the will have to keep Congressman Ron Paul from declaring as a third party candidate, which is a real possibility.

Ronald Reagan must be rolling over in his grave.

GOP: Oops

If there is one word that best summarizes some of the Republican presidential candidates, it is the one uttered by Governor Rick Perry himself: "Ooops."

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has found himself on the defensive just as he has secured a position as a frontrunner for his party's nomination. For instance, there are no more reviled institutions for conservative Republicans than Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In fact, Gingrich himself has been a most ardent critic. Then came the revelation, by Bloomberg News, that Gingrich had earned nearly $2 million from Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage underwriter, over several years ending in 2008. His campaign says he was not lobbying, he was just offering advice on how to navigate Congress.

But Gingrich has earned a lot of money from corporate clients since leaving office. The New York Times reported that one client was Gundersen Lutheran Health System of LaCrosse, Wisconsin. In July 2009, Gingrich wrote a piece on the Washington Post's Web site praising that organization's efforts to convince patients to have "advance directives" on end-of-life care that if adopted by Medicare would save "$33 billion." But not too long after his comments conservatives were attacking President Obama's health care reform bill that called for end-of-life consultations for Medicare--a.k.a. "death panels." Gingrich then joined the critics.

Gingrich supported a single-payer mandate in the 1990's, which is at the heart of President Obama's health care law and became anathema to conservatives. The Supreme Court will take up the legality of the mandate next year. Gingrich is now opposed to mandates. Maybe he is now opposed to large jewelry purchases from Tiffany's? Should Gingrich get his party's nomination he will face questions about his personal life and the fact that he is the only Speaker of the House to ever have been disciplined for ethics violations.

In the past two months businessman Herman Cain surged to the top of polls among Republican voters. But then reports surfaced that several women accused him of sexual harassment. While he has denied all the charges he has failed to quell the controversy and his campaign has been hurt.

Perhaps even more embarrassing for Cain has been his inability to correctly answer foreign policy questions. He told one interviewer that China "was trying to develop nuclear capability." China has had nuclear weapons since the 1950's. When asked by a Milwaukee Sentinel editorial board about President Obama's handling of the Libyan uprising he struggled for more than a minute and never provided a clear answer. Cain later defended himself in a campaign appearance by saying, "I'm a leader, not a reader."

Texas Governor Rick Perry has stumbled throughout his debate performances. None of his blunders is more problematic than his brain freeze when he tried to name the three federal government agencies that he wanted to eliminate. Ooops! In an effort to get attention away from his struggling campaign, Gov. Perry began airing a political ad accusing President Obama of calling Americans "lazy", which is not true. In fact, the president said that American businesses were "a little bit lazy...to attract new business into America."

By all appearances, Governor Mitt Romney should be well ahead of his opponents. He has done an effective job in his presidential campaign. But “Romneycare”, the Massachusetts health care bill he passed that served as the basis for President Obama’s health reform law, has dogged him. And his fellow candidates have attacked him for flip-flopping on abortion, gun control and the U.S. auto industry bailout. Romney's approval among Republicans has been stuck at about 25% because most people in his own party don't trust him!

Meanwhile, Representative Michele Bachmann has blown her early lead with gaffes and former Governor Jon Huntsman, President Obama's former ambassador to China, has focused only in New Hampshire, where he is still in single digits. Representative Ron Paul maintains a loyal but small following despite some of his controversial statements.

The GOP primary process has been painful and embarrassing, especially for Republicans. While President Barack Obama faces a tough reelection campaign, the Republican Party seems to be doing all it can to help him obtain his goal. Or, as Governor Perry would say, "Ooops."