November Madness?

"How do we understand this President and his time in office?" asks actor Tom Hanks in his narration for the documentary "The Road We've Traveled," which the president's reelection campaign released Thursday evening. "Do we look at the day's headlines or do we remember what we as a nation have been through?" Well that all depends on your political point of view.

For supporters of President Obama, the documentary is a well-crafted 17-minute story about a man who has achieved an enormous amount despite difficult challenges.  "Not since the days of Franklin Roosevelt has so much fallen on the shoulders of one president," Hanks says.  It tells of a man who is consistently doing what he believes is best for the country rather than what may be most popular. 

The documentary cites the benefits of the health care reform act, a.k.a. "Obama care", by reminding viewers that the elderly, young adults under 26 years old, and people with preexisting conditions will no longer be without health care. It points to the fact that the controversial stimulus package passed in 2009 added or saved millions of jobs.  The film also highlights the great success of the automobile bail out, which is still criticized by the Republican candidates.  Of course, the documentary spends time detailing the president's actions that led to the killing of Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda. 

The timing of the film, released on the normally unlucky "Ides of March", marks the true beginning of the president's reelection effort.  Simultaneous with the film's release, candidates Obama and Vice President Joe Biden sharpened their attacks on their Republican opponents.

On Thursday the vice president said, “Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich — these guys have a fundamentally different economic philosophy than we do.” He continued, “We are for a fair shot and a fair shake. They’re about no rules, no risks and no accountability.”  Speaking of the auto bailout, Vice President Biden then said, “he made the tough call and the verdict is in. President Obama was right and they were dead wrong.”  A few hundred miles away the president criticized at his opponents, “If some of these folks were around when Columbus set sail, they probably must have been founding members of the "Flat Earth Society". They would not believe that the world was round."

But, flat earth or not, recent national polls showed a sharp decline in the president's approval rating.  The latest New York Times/CBS News poll shows Obama's overall approval rating at 41 percent, down 9 percentage points in one month.  The president's rating also slid about 10 percent in a month according to a Washington Post/ABC poll.  Rising gas prices and a slow recovery seem to be dragging the president's numbers down.  The heated debate over contraception and religious rights are not as high a priority to most Americans.

Of course, the man in charge is held accountable for rising gasoline prices, even though they are caused by events that the president has little control over.  Speculators and the fear of war with Iran are driving the prices up.  If all the suggestions that Republicans are making to deal with the problem were enacted they would have little impact on the price.  In fact, the last time gas prices were this high was in July 2008, when George W. Bush was president, and they came crashing down because of the recession that soon followed.  

Here we are in the height of college basketball's exciting tournament known as "March Madness."  Already many fans who have forecast the outcome of the tournament, the "bracketologists," have seen their predictions turn out wrong.  That is because several top-seeded teams have gone down to defeat at the hands of lower ranked opponents. The fact is that any team has a chance of winning on any given day. 

We are still many months away from "November Madness," and the race will not be a slam-dunk for either candidate.  While it is pretty clear that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be matched up against President Barack Obama, the election will be very close.  Victory will depend on who has the better ground game and passionate voter support.  But, chances are that many voters will be more motivated by "the day's headlines" than "what we have been through" as a nation.      

Too Close To Call

President Barack Obama's chances of winning a second term appear better today than at anytime in the past two years, but there are plenty of things that could go wrong between now and November.

According to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll the president's approval rating has reached 50%, in part because the economy is slowly improving. According to the poll, 34% of Americans believe that the economy is getting better, up 6% from a month earlier. Still 59% of those surveyed think the country is on the wrong track, though those saying it is on the right track increased in the last month from 29% to 35%. Yet 50% of the respondents still disapprove of the president's handling of the economy while 44% approve. At a minimum these numbers reflect a great deal of uncertainty about the economy which will likely be the most important issue for voters next November.

With a bit of wind at his back, the president is now leading each of the potential Republican candidates according to the poll. The Republicans have been engaged in a negative and divisive primary that has hurt each of the candidates, especially presumed front-runner Mitt Romney. And 57% of Republicans think the tough primary will hurt their party's chances in November’s presidential election.

The CBS News/New York Times poll shows that former Senator Rick Santorum has surged into the lead over Romney. The Romney campaign immediately responded with a barrage of negative attack ads against Santorum. If the former Pennsylvania Senator can win the Michigan and Arizona primaries in two weeks he will give the Romney campaign a near fatal blow.

Romney grew up in Michigan and he was thought to have a home state advantage. But a recent state poll shows Santorum is in front. Santorum's appeal in this rustbelt state seems to be his genuineness and his blue-collar upbringing. But with success will come more scrutiny into his record in office and his views on social issues. His positions on contraception and women in the military do not reflect the views of most Americans.

While the Republicans duke it out the president must navigate through some very tricky waters. Republicans in Congress have vowed they will do all they can to stop President Obama from winning a second term. Meanwhile, this country’s economic recovery is fragile. Making matters even more precarious, Europe is struggling to manage their difficult economic crisis, the outcome of which will impact the U.S.

Of even greater concern are reports that Iran is continuing to build a nuclear bomb and that it is behind a series of terrorist attacks against Israel. A war between Israel and Iran could break out before the November elections and America’s hand will be forced.  This as Afghanistan, Syria, China and Russia each are ongoing difficult diplomatic challenges for the U.S. 

The president may very well be winning head-to-head against Santorum, Romney, Gingrich or Paul. But when the Republicans select their nominee, no matter who's left standing, the race will tighten. Because this country is deeply divided, perhaps 45% Republican and 45% Democrat, the winner will need an energized base and a majority of the independents.

And maybe an endorsement from Knick Jeremy Lin would help?