Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Trump's Going Rogue

Donald Trump is pulling out all the stops to secure a victory in Iowa's Caucuses, which take place February 1.  A victory in Iowa will give him a commanding lead and real momentum in the race for the Republican presidential nomination going into the New Hampshire Primary February 9.

Polls show that Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are neck and neck in Iowa; so securing just a few additional votes may mean victory.  That is where former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin comes in.   Her enthusiastic and rambling endorsement of Trump on Tuesday can make the difference for the real estate mogul and former television host.  

"Are you ready for a commander-in-chief, you ready for a commander-in-chief who will let our warriors do their job and go kick ISIS ass?" Palin raved as Trump looked on.  "Ready for someone who will secure our borders, to secure our jobs, and to secure our homes? Ready to make America great again, are you ready to stump for Trump? I’m here to support the next president of the United States, Donald Trump."  Palin peppered her endorsement with phrases like, "No more pussy footin’ around," and "they won't be able to be slurping off the gravy train."

Praising Trump, the man who wrote The Art of the Deal, she added, "quit footin’ the bill for these nations who are oil-rich, we’re paying for some of their squirmishes (sic) that have been going on for centuries. Where they’re fightin’ each other and yellin’ 'Allah Akbar' calling Jihad on each other’s heads forever and ever. Like I’ve said before, let them duke it out and let Allah sort it out." 

Trump and Cruz have been skirmishing with increasing intensity for a victory in Iowa.  Cruz is popular among Iowa's evangelicals, who make up a large portion of caucus goers.  A recent poll shows that he has the support of a third of the likely evangelical Republican caucus voters, while Trump has about 20%.   “Palin’s brand among evangelicals is as gold as the faucets in Trump Tower,” Ralph Reed, the chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, told the New York Times.  Palin's endorsement just may close the deal for Trump.

The Cruz campaign suffered another blow Tuesday when Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, a Republican, said he wants to see Cruz defeated.  "It would be a big mistake for Iowa to support him," Branstad said at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit.  "And I know he's ahead in the polls but the only poll that counts is the one they take on caucus night and I think that could change between now and then."  Labeling Cruz a "big oil" candidate, he predicted, "As Iowans learn about his anti-renewable fuel stand, and that it will cost us jobs, and will further reduce farm income, I think people will realize that it's not in our interest."

A victory in Iowa for Trump would put him in the driver's seat.  Recent polls show that he has a sizable lead in New Hampshire among likely Republican voters.   He also enjoys a large lead in the South Carolina GOP Primary according to polls, which takes place February 20, and he has opened up a huge lead in Florida's March 15 Republican Primary, a winner-take-all state, according to a newly released poll.  

A win in Iowa depends on voter turnout.  But a Trump victory there could trigger a tsunami of primary victories that will secure him the Republican nomination.  Even his detractors within the GOP are beginning to accept that he may be their standard bearer next November.   "He’s going rogue left and right," Palin said in her speech.  Soon he may be taking the entire Republican Party along for the ride.  

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Here Comes Newt

On the eve of the South Carolina primary the Republican race has been turned on its head by two developments that may have a profound impact on the campaign. The question now is can frontrunner Mitt Romney beat off the surging Newt Gingrich to win his party's nomination?

Texas Governor Rick Perry withdrew from the presidential race because he was not getting any traction with South Carolina voters and he didn't want to help split the conservative vote and hand Romney a sizable win Saturday. Instead, he threw his support to Gingrich saying, "I believe Newt is a conservative visionary who can transform our country."

Perry acknowledged that he and Gingrich have "had our differences," but he went on to say, "I have no question that Newt has the heart of a conservative... with the ability to rally and captivate the conservative movement." This was a clear message to voters that he believes Romney is not a true conservative.

Gingrich's record as Speaker of the House has been under assault by negative Super PAC ads in support of Romney. And questions have been raised about Gingrich's personal life, including a claim by his second wife the he asked for an "open marriage." Perry seemed to address these criticisms in his remarks. "Newt is not perfect, but who among us is," Perry said. "There is forgiveness for those who seek God, and I believe in the power of redemption for it is a central tenant of my Christian faith."

Propelled by his recent debate performance, Gingrich has been closing the gap in recent polls taken among South Carolina voters. On the other hand, Romney has been seeing his lead erode over the past few days. To make matters worse for the former Massachusetts Governor, on Thursday the Iowa Republican Party revised their final caucus totals giving Rick Santorum a 34 vote lead over Romney. No longer can Romney claim he won an unprecedented victory in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Game on!

Gingrich wasted no time in embracing Perry's endorsement and in enlisting Perry to lead a "10th Amendment Enforcement Project" that, if successful, would ultimately restore more power to the states while curtailing the role of the federal government. The 10th Amendment says that, "Powers not granted to the federal government nor prohibited to the States by the Constitution are reserved to the States." This is a key issue for many conservatives who may see this as bold and imaginative leadership. But taking power away from the federal government and giving it back to the states is a most controversial and complex issue.

While Gingrich and Santorum both received a big boost to their campaigns on Thursday, Romney has suffered largely self-inflicted wounds over the past few weeks. For example, he fumbled his handling of when and if he will release his tax returns. Under immense pressure he finally admitted on Wednesday that his income tax rate was about 15%, or the rate paid on capital gains that is largely the source of his income from his Bain Capital investments. But are any of those investments parked offshore?

Romney supporters, such as New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, have urged the former Massachusetts Governor to release his tax returns as soon as possible. But the always-opportunistic Newt Gingrich seized the moment by releasing his tax returns on Thursday.

Republican voters in South Carolina now find themselves with a horse race. Will Romney be able to hold on? Will Gingrich be able to rally enough support to pull out a victory? Will Santorum be helped by is narrow victory in Iowa? Will Representative Ron Paul be able to capitalize on the chaos?

There is no question that Romney is now feeling intense pressure and he is on the defensive. In a heated exchange with a protestor on Thursday in South Carolina he called for unity and emphatically denounced those who were dividing the nation. Perhaps he should take a closer look at himself.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Obama's Looking Good

In the words of one long-time Republican, "The Republicans are making President Obama look good." Well, he makes a very good point about the Republican field of presidential candidates.

It appears that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is very frustrated. Despite his energetic campaign and strong debate performances, Romney cannot score more than 25% in polls of Republican voters. The problem is that he has changed positions on key issues in an effort to win more support in his party. And, just in case some Americans haven't noticed, the Democratic National Committee has been airing a political commercial called "Mitt vs. Mitt" that drives the point home.

Romney's campaign has recently resorted to airing a misleading political ad that shows President Barack Obama saying, “If we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose.” But then candidate Obama was merely quoting a statement that Senator John McCain had made. When the president's campaign cried foul, Romney responded, "We are obviously getting under their skin."

Romney has dutifully avoided doing any press interviews. That is until he agreed to do a Fox News interview on Tuesday. Fox News anchor Brett Baier asked Romney, "You have been on both sides of many issues." He then cited some flip-flops before asking Romney how voters can trust him. Romney responded, “Your list is just not accurate. We’re going to have to be better informed about my views on issues.” He then looked very defensive for the remainder of the interview.

But if Romney looks uncomfortable, businessman Herman Cain appears under siege. Cain has been repeatedly asked questions about allegations from Ginger White that he had had a thirteen-year affair with her. Cain has already had to defend himself against allegations of sexual harassment involving several other women.

Cain was defiant on Wednesday saying, "They have been trying to do a character assassination on me." He told a crowd of supporters in Ohio, "They are attacking my character, my reputation and my name in order to try and bring me down." Cain has even suggested that Democrats were behind the charges in an effort to help former House Speaker Newt Gingrich win the nomination. Cain has announced he is reevaluating his campaign and he would have an announcement on his future plans next week.

The big winner has been Newt Gingrich. He has surged to the front of the Republican field fueled in part by strong debate performances. But new revelations that Gingrich has earned millions of dollars since leaving office advising health care related companies and the mortgage company Freddie Mac have raised some serious questions. His personal life, a joint appearance with Democratic Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi in a global warming ad and ethics violations while in Congress are among issues that he will have to overcome.

Meanwhile, President Obama has been unrelenting in his campaign effort to get his jobs bill passed. His most recent focus has been on extending and expanding the payroll tax cut, which is set to expire at the end of the year. If the payroll tax cuts are not extended it will cost the average American family $1,000. The president has proposed paying for the tax cut by raising taxes by on Americans earning a million dollars or more. Republicans in Congress oppose him saying they want to fund the extension with budget cuts. A majority of Americans support additional taxes on high income earners.

The president's stock is rising as he has stepped up his reelection efforts. And, barring another economic set back, his chances of winning a second term are improving. Meanwhile, with a month to go before the Iowa Caucuses, the Republicans are stumbling badly towards the starting gate.