The 2014 Midterm Elections

With less than 10 weeks to go before the midterm Congressional elections Americans in general are frustrated with Washington.  National polls show that about three quarters of all Americans disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job.  By comparison, about half of those Americans polled disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of his job. 

Sunday's New York Post reported that 163 laws have been passed and signed by the president since this two-year term of Congress began in January 2013.  That is far lower than the 284 laws that were passed by the 2011-2013 session, which is an all time record for fewest bills passed.  Congress passed 386 laws during the 2009-2011 session.   Former Representative Lee Hamilton (R-IN) told the Post, "I've never seen it any worse in terms of public esteem for the Congress.  I can't find anybody who says a good word about it."

Despite Congress's lack of productivity, and as outrageous as it may seem, it appears that most incumbents will be reelected in November.   Conventional wisdom is that while most Americans want to get rid of Congress, they nonetheless support their own representative.  This is especially true during midterm elections because voter turnout is often very low, which gives incumbents an advantage.  But both parties are leaving nothing to chance, as a record amount of campaign dollars will be poured into this election, surpassing the $3.6 billion spent in 2010.   

Republicans currently hold a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives, 233-199; there are three vacant seats.  The GOP expects to expand its majority in the House.  Meanwhile, Democrats currently hold a majority in the Senate.  But of the 36 Senate seats in play, 21 of them held by Democrats, while 15 are held by Republicans.  If the GOP picks up six Senate seats this midterm they will be in the majority in both houses of Congress.  Most experts, including Nate Silver, of the election site FiveThirtyEight, give Republicans a slight edge to take those seats and become the majority party in the Senate.  

The Republicans are targeting the seven Democratic seats that are up in states where Mitt Romney beat President Obama in the 2012 presidential election.  They are also going after four additional Democratic seats in states where the president remains unpopular.  Republicans will do all they can to make this election about President Obama's unpopularity. 

Domestically the president has been attacked for executive actions he has taken to bypass the blockade that Congress has become.  For example, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who himself has presidential aspirations, has regularly attacked the president, telling Fox News "He believes somehow that he's become a monarch or an emperor that can basically ignore the law and do whatever he wants."  On the other hand, Republicans have attacked President Obama for being disengaged and "leading from behind" on foreign policy.  The president's recent comment the he does not have a strategy on dealing with ISIS in Syria was seized upon by Republicans.  Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI), said on CBS Sunday,  "What I want to hear from the president is that he has a strategy to finish ISIS off, to defeat ISIS."

Congressional and Senate Democratic candidates have tried to localize their elections, but Republicans are focusing on President Obama in an effort to energize their base.  So Democrats are trying to mobilize minority voters,  especially African-Americans, who generally don't vote in midterms.  Party activists are using the shooting in Ferguson, Mo., and conservative calls to impeach the president, to mobilize Blacks.  An increase in the number of Southern Blacks helped Democrats during the 1998 midterm election, when President Bill Clinton was under heavy fire from the right.

Ironically, the one Republican Senator who is in the toughest fight to be reelected is the man who has the most to gain if Republicans win majority control.  Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky), the Senate minority leader, has done all he can to obstruct and block the agenda of President Obama since the day he was sworn in to office in 2009.  McConnell is facing a vigorous challenge from Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.  McConnell is not popular in Kentucky, but a recent state poll shows he has the edge.  Lundergan Grimes is making McConnell's failings in Congress the issue.  But McConnell is tying his opponent to President Obama.  

Should Republicans take control of both houses the legislative process will grind to a halt.  Anything the Republicans pass, like efforts to defund Obamacare, will be vetoed by the president.  Meanwhile, congressional investigations into the so-called scandals surrounding the IRS and Benghazi will intensify.  The partisan divide will widen as Republicans try to score points before the 2016 Presidential Elections.   

Because so much is at stake, this coming election day is not a time for eligible voters to stay home.

Pivot Point for Democrats

 The 2014 midterm elections are little more than six months away, and already the Republican Party is feeling giddy about the prospect of big wins in several U.S. Senate races, perhaps enough to give the GOP control of both houses of Congress. This may appear to be surprising if one considers that Republicans are in the minority nationally on most key social and economic issues, especially among Blacks, Latinos and women.

Most Republicans want to repeal the Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. Obamacare, but they can't agree among themselves on how to replace it. And they were dealt a bit of a blow when President Barack Obama announced Tuesday that more than seven million Americans had signed up for health care by the deadline, far exceeding expectations. That number is likely to be much higher when the final count is in.

Now the health care law is starting to pick up some positive momentum, with a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showing 49% of all Americans now support the law, while 48% oppose it. That is nearly a 10% swing to the positive since last November. And the ACA's favorability rating is likely to improve since the enrollment numbers were so strong, and most of the Republican lies and myths about the law have been shown to be untrue.

So a Republican controlled Congress will likely do all it can to bring an end to Obamacare, even if it is piece by piece. What makes Obamacare so repugnant to many Republicans is that it is viewed as another "government handout," like food stamps, unemployment insurance and many social programs. Their view is that the poor and hungry are largely freeloaders. So if Republicans get their way on Obamacare, several million people who now have signed up for the ACA will lose health care and have nothing to replace it.

A majority of Americans across the nation do not agree with Republicans on most social issues, like same sex marriage and equal pay for women. Many states, heavily gerrymandered following big GOP wins in the 2010 state legislative and gubernatorial races, are slowly rolling back existing social reforms.

The Republican Party is made up largely of older and white voters. These are the very people who are most likely to vote during off-year elections, especially when Republicans play on their fears. For instance, the fallacious cries of death panels? Or the ridiculous charge that Obama has become the "imperial president." Or, that Obama is violating the constitution and should be impeached!

Unfortunately for Democrats, many of those who are mobilized by fear and anti-Obama feelings are typically not well informed. They are easy prey for GOP political spinmeisters. And there is no penalty for lying about your opponent.

President Obama was reelected by a sizable margin with the help of young people, minorities and women. But these voter groups do not usually turn out in large numbers for midterm elections. To make matters worse for Democrats, Republican controlled state legislatures are doing all they can to restrict voting access in many states. For instance, some states have voted to end voting on Sundays, the only day many minorities, who work long hours and travel great distances to work, can vote without a loss of pay. Some Republican controlled statehouses have reduced the number of polling places, frequently choosing to close those in more heavily Democratic districts. Republicans claim this is all due to incidents of voter fraud, but the facts show that the number of voter fraud cases nationally is minuscule.

Of course, Republicans are against any meaningful immigration reform. They believe that most immigrants who become citizens will also become Democrats. I wonder why that would happen?

Meanwhile, in Washington Tuesday, Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI), the party's budget guru, drew fire from all sides with his latest federal budget proposal. The Ryan budget calls for deep cuts in so-called safety net programs, education, job training, Pell Grants, and for transforming some social programs into "block grants," which will leave each state to deal with the program. He also proposes huge tax breaks for the rich. Democrats see Ryan's budget as a real liability for Republicans. But, not surprisingly, conservative Republicans think it doesn't go far enough.

Take, for instance, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. "The latest Ryan budget is not an April Fool's joke," Palin wrote on her Facebook page Tuesday, "But it really IS a joke because it is STILL not seeing the problem; it STILL is not proposing reining in wasteful government overspending." The Palin posting reflects the vast schism that currently exists within the Republican Party.

Yet, because more "red state" senate seats are up this election, Republicans are poised to make some major gains. The challenge for Democrats will be to mobilize the Obama coalition.

You think there is gridlock in Washington now? If the GOP wins both houses of Congress in November, nothing meaningful will get done for two years, and many good social programs will come under crippling attack. Representative Darrell Issa (R-CA) will endlessly bask in the television lights as he wastes even more American taxpayer money investigating everything from Benghazi to the First Family's dogs.

Democrats must begin a full court press around the many accomplishments of President Obama, especially Obamacare. Democrats must go on the offensive now, and rally party supporters, especially the young, minorities, and women, from coast to coast. Democrats must make sure that all Americans fully understand what they may lose if they do not vote this coming November.

Racism in America

The 2012 presidential election campaign has been disappointing.   Perhaps the most disappointing thing about this election is that were President Barack Obama white it is likely he would be on his way to a landslide victory.  

President Obama inherited a disastrous mess. When he entered office the economy was shrinking at 9 percent annually due to the Bush Recession.  About 800 thousand Americans were losing jobs each month.  The banking system was on the verge of collapse, the housing market was a disaster, and the American car industry was dying.  The country was engaged in two difficult and costly wars, both in lives and resources, with no end in sight.  Meanwhile, Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda, and mastermind of the worst attack on U.S. soil, continued to plot against America and its allies. 

In his inaugural speech, at the U.S. Capitol before nearly 2 million people, the president said, "On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord."  But, inside the Capitol, Republicans met and formulated a plan to obstruct, deny and delay the president's agenda.  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would later publicly state that making President Obama a one-term president, not the economy, was the number one priority of his party. 

The new president, facing fierce partisan opposition, signed into law the Recovery Act, a.k.a. the stimulus package.  Although it was smaller than he originally proposed, most economists credit it with righting the stalling economy.  Even Representative Paul Ryan requested stimulus money to help businesses in his district.  The president also signed tough banking reform legislation to assure a similar crisis would not occur. He enacted the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act that assures fair pay for women.  He bailed out the American auto companies over the objections of many Republicans, including Governor Mitt Romney, who wrote in a New York Times op-ed piece that they should be allowed to go bankrupt.  The auto bailout saved one million jobs, and now the industry is vibrant again.  

The president's signature legislative achievement, the Affordable Health Care Act (Obamacare) will make health care more affordable and accessible to all Americans, and protect consumers from abuses by insurance companies.  For instance, no longer can insurance companies deny people health care benefits because they have a pre-existing condition.  More importantly, 40 million uninsured Americans will be covered and the government will realize $1 trillion in health care savings over the next decade, according to its sponsors. . 

But Republicans have used Obamacare (sounds like Romneycare) as a major rallying cry against the president, falsely charging it is a government take over of health care, that it would restrict an individual's choices, and that it would set up death panels.  While they offered no credible alternatives, they demonize the president as a socialist.   

The president had promised to end the war in Iraq, and he did.  But Republicans were vociferous in their criticism, saying he withdrew too early.  The president promised a military build up in Afghanistan, where the war was nearly in its tenth year, and he did.  The president also set a deadline of June 2014 for the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from that country.  But Republicans criticized the president for announcing a deadline.  And just last week candidate Mitt Romney announced at the third debate that he agreed with the president's deadline after all. 

The president made getting Osama bin Laden a top priority early on in his administration.   Bin Laden had eluded capture for nearly a decade, and was a low priority for both President George Bush and candidate Romney.  But in May 2011, U.S. forces killed the world's most heinous terrorist leader in Pakistan.  The president took a huge political risk by ordering the killing, but now Republicans claim that anyone would have done the same thing.  

The president has had some missteps during his first term.  The U.S. economy is still sluggish and too many people remain unemployed.  But the world is a different place today than it was in the early 1980's, when President Ronald Reagan revived a bad U.S. economy.  Economic growth in China and India has slowed; much of Europe is still in a recession.  Nonetheless, under President Obama the U.S. economy has enjoyed 31 straight months of jobs growth and unemployment is at its lowest point, 7.8 percent, since he took office.  

At the Democratic Convention, President Bill Clinton said, "No president, not me, not any of my predecessors, could have repaired all of the damage he found in just four years."  When one considers the animus and vitriol that has roiled the American political scene, stirred by Republicans and Tea Party loyalists, it is a wonder that the man who called for "unity of purpose" has succeeded at all.

Mr. Obama has been labeled "the food stamp president" and an "anti-colonialist" by leading Republicans.  He has repeatedly been treated with unprecedented disrespect, including on the floor of the House of Representatives.  His place of birth has been constantly questioned, as have his academic records.  About a third of all Republicans think the president is a Muslim and not a Christian.  Most recently, when General Colin Powell, a leading Republican, war hero and African American, announced his thoughtful endorsement for the president's reelection, right wing critics sniped.  Former Vermont Governor John Sununu, and chief Romney surrogate, said, "Well, I think when you have somebody of your own race that you're proud of being president of the United States, I applaud Colin for standing with him."

On Saturday, the Associated Press released a poll that found, "51 percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey."  According to AP, "Overall, the survey found that by virtue of racial prejudice, President Obama could lose 5 percentage points off his share of the popular vote in his Nov. 6 contest against Republican challenger Mitt Romney."  Racial prejudice actually increased in America over the past four years with an African American in the White House, a president who has rarely raised the issue of race.

Americans should vote for the candidate who they believe will be the best president.    But to use race as a factor would only reward those who have divided the nation by using fear and hatred to achieve their political agenda.

The Veep Debate

Vice President Joe Biden's debate performance on Thursday was feisty, energetic and aggressive.  Representative Paul Ryan, his opponent, was largely composed, well rehearsed and often on the defensive.  Biden gave the performance his party was looking for while Ryan comported himself well.  

In a CBS News snap poll of 500 uncommitted voters, 50% of those asked said Biden won the debate, while 31% gave the nod to Ryan.  The poll also showed that the perception of each man improved because of their performance.  

The debate, which took place at Centre College in Danville, Ky., covered both foreign and domestic issues.   ABC News senior foreign affairs correspondent Martha Raddatz moderated it.  Unlike the last week's debate, she drove the 90-minute intense exchange with sharp questioning.  Biden smiled and shook his head at many of his opponent's answers, while Ryan smirked at several of Biden's answers. 

Raddatz began by asking the vice president about the attack on the U.S. outpost in Benghazi, Libya, in which four Americans were killed.  Republicans have criticized the White House for not immediately admitting it was a terrorist attack.  In the debate, Ryan called it a "massive intelligence failure" promising that a Mitt Romney administration would provide marines to protect U.S. outposts.  Biden, who said the administration was investigating the attack, pointed out that Republicans in Congress voted to cut embassy security by $300 million.  

The candidates sparred over Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.  On Iran, Ryan charged, “This administration has no credibility on this issue,” as Biden smiled and shook his head.  Then Ryan criticized the president for not meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he was in New York for a United Nations meeting, and instead appearing on ABC's talk show, The View. 

“This is a bunch of stuff,” Biden said.  “What does that mean, a bunch of stuff?” Raddatz asked. “It’s Irish,” Ryan chimed in. “We Irish call it malarkey.”  Then Biden said the president had a one-hour call with Netanyahu just before the UN meeting and criticized Romney and Ryan for not having a plan for Iran.

On Afghanistan the debaters argued over the president's commitment to pull U.S. troops in 2014.  Ryan said the White should not have announced the timetable, which already was well known. But Biden was emphatic, "We are leaving. We are leaving in 2014. Period."

Taxes, Medicare and Social Security were heated debate topics.  Biden pinned Ryan on defending tax cuts for top income earners.  He repeatedly, speaking directly into the camera, called for a level playing field for the middle class.  He also highlighted Romney's remarks, to a closed fundraiser, that 47% of Americans aren't personally responsible.  Ryan, turning to Biden, said, “I think the vice president very well knows that sometimes the words don’t come out of your mouth the right way.”  Biden responded, "But I mean what I say." 

Biden called the Ryan proposal on Medicare a voucher plan that would result in future seniors having to pay money for care.  And Biden attacked a Republican plan to privatize Social Security, which would leave Americans vulnerable to swings in the stock market.  

Near the end of the debate, Raddatz asked the candidates if their Catholic faith "informs" their decision on abortion.  Ryan said yes, but said the Romney policy  "will be to oppose abortion with the exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother." It was clear that Ryan would rule out all abortions.  Biden said he is personally against abortion, but that, "It's a decision between (women) and their doctor, in my view, and the Supreme Court. I'm not going to interfere with that."  He then pointed out that the next president would appoint one or two Supreme Court justices, which could swing the balance on Roe V. Wade.  

Representative Paul Ryan has bragged about his ability to catch fish barehanded.  However, in the debate he could not catch the vice president, whose lengthy experience with foreign policy and domestic issues worked in his favor.  While Biden consistently spoke from his heart, Ryan often seemed to be reciting talking points, especially on foreign policy issues.  

Now the stage is set for the next week's presidential debate at Hofstra University.  President Obama's supporters know that he must build off of Biden's strong performance, because the alternative could be devastating for his reelection hopes.

  

Romney's Debatable Performance

Governor Mitt Romney exceeded expectations in his debate performance at the University of Denver while President Barack Obama seemed to be trying to protect his lead. 

Romney needed to have a strong performance and he did.  According to a CBS News "snap poll", 46% of the 500 of uncommitted voters asked said that Romney won the debate, 22% said the president won, and 32% said it was a draw. 

It was clear that Romney and his debate team planned to exploit the debate format, moderated by PBS's Jim Lehrer, with an aggressive performance.  The challenger often has the advantage because the incumbent has to defend his record.  But Romney got help from his opponent and the moderator because he was not challenged on his statements.

President Obama was not confrontational.  He failed to raise Romney's embarrassing comments at a fundraiser that 47% are not personally responsible and depend on the federal government.  The president failed to get Romney to explain what loopholes he would eliminate in his tax reform plan to pay for his 20% across the board tax cut, which would cost $5 trillion.  That gave Romney the chance to say over and over his program would not cost $5 trillion.

Romney used, in Obama campaign manager David Plouffe's words, "theatrical aggression."  Romney sounded confident as he gave the appearance of offering specifics without doing so.  He criticized the president for "cutting" $716 billion from Medicare, the exact same amount Representative Paul Ryan, his running mate, and Republicans have voted to cut from the program.  Romney did admit his would turn Medicare into a voucher program, but glossed over its impact.

Romney said he would repeal Obamacare, the president's signature health care legislation, but failed to clearly explain in detail how he would replace it.  However, at one point he said his Massachusetts health care plan initiatives can apply nationally.  That would seem to mean that his individual mandate, which is unpopular, would also apply.  The president did not seize that opening.

For his part, President Obama did not mention his record of 30 consecutive months job growth, which has added more than 5 million private sector jobs to the U.S. economy.  He also did not take credit for saving the U.S. auto industry, which saved a million U.S. jobs.

The president was consistent, persistent, but he played it safe.  He was not forceful and he was not passionate.  He did not make a clear case for his reelection. 

The Romney campaign had leaked that their candidate would use zingers in the debate, but there were none.  Instead, he attacked the incumbent's record and surprisingly even used human anecdotes.  And in his strong summation he claimed he would turn the economy around and create 12 million new jobs in his first term.  Never mind that economic forecasters predict that the U.S. economy is currently on track to add 12 million jobs. 

Romney's performance was welcome relief to Republicans after several weeks of poor performances and embarrassing gaffs.  He was convincing, and his debate appearance revved up his own base.

But did Romney convert any new voters?  Will Americans support a candidate whose numbers do not add up?

Romney Stumbles

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.”  By his definition, were he alive today, Groucho Marx could point to Mitt Romney as a perfect example!   But, no doubt many Republicans wish they could Etch A Sketch away the past six weeks of the Romney campaign.

Today many political observers characterize Romney's campaign as desperate, disoriented, erratic and lacking a budget plan.  Yet, it was suppose to be so easy.  Having won a bitterly contested Republican primary, Romney would be able to position himself as a successful "Mr. Fixit" businessman who could save the U.S. economy.  His approach was to make the 2012 presidential race a referendum on President Barack Obama's handling of the economy.  But before Romney could get out of the starting gate, the Obama campaign went after Mr. Fixit.  

Romney was co-founder and once head of Bain Capital, one of the world's leading private asset management firms.  It turns out that they succeeded in saving some businesses.  But Bain also closed several companies down, took out millions of dollars and left thousands of people without jobs, all facts that the Obama campaign relentlessly pointed out. Of course, Bain Capital's main goal is to make big profits for its investors, not to create jobs.  At the Democratic Convention, Vice President Joe Biden put it this way, “Folks, the Bain way may bring your firm the highest profits. But it’s not the way to lead your country from its highest office.”

Romney said he was a successful governor of Massachusetts.   But his single biggest achievement was "Romneycare", the state's near universal health care law that was the blueprint for "Obamacare," which Romney has vowed to repeal on his first day if he is elected president.  But last week Romney said, on NBC's Meet the Press, ”Of course, there are a number of things that I like in health care reform that I’m going to put in place.  One is to make sure that those with pre-existing conditions can get coverage."  This set off a firestorm among conservative Republicans.  Later that day, Romney's campaign again reconfirmed he was against covering people with pre-existing conditions who have not had continuous health coverage. 

At the Republican Convention, Romney was upstaged by an embarrassing endorsement from actor Clint Eastwood, who crudely spoke to an empty chair that represented President Obama.  In his tepid acceptance speech, Romney focused on biography and talking points, but offered no specifics on how he would save the economy.  And, in an inexplicable omission, Romney failed to mention the American soldiers serving in Afghanistan and around the world.

The Republican candidate, looking to further mobilize his conservative base and add some spice to the ticket, brought Representative Paul Ryan on as his running mate.  Ryan is a favorite of the right, and author of the Ryan Budget Plan.  But that plan, which was has widespread support among Congressional Republicans, calls for deep cuts in entitlements.  Under Ryan's plan, Medicare would be voucherized and Medicaid would be converted to block grants to states.  As a result, recipients would be left to personally pay for some of the quickly increasing medical costs they will face in the future.

If he embraced Ryan's plan, Romney would risk alienating many seniors, a critical demographic in many swing states.  So Romney has been distancing himself from the Ryan plan.  In an interview with CBS News, he was asked, "Are you running on [Ryan's] budget or on your budget?" Romney responded, "My budget, of course, I'm the one running for president."  Yet, Romney has failed to offer specifics for about his budget.

Romney has also failed to explain why he has parked so many of his investments in off shore accounts.  He found himself on the defensive on his personal taxes.  He has adamantly said he will release only two years of federal returns.  In his 2010 return he paid an effective rate of 13.8 percent in taxes on an income of $21.7 million.  He has not yet released his final 2011 returns, but he has estimated he will pay an effective rate of 15.4 percent on income of $20.9 million.  His taxes are certain to remain an issue heading into the election.

Romney and Ryan have little foreign policy experience, and it shows.  Candidate Romney has blustered about the Russians and the Chinese as if, to use the president's description, he is "stuck in some cold-war tie warp."  So it is no wonder he was poised to seize an opportunity to criticize the president on foreign policy.  While terrorists were attacking the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya, which left four Americans dead, Romney was attacking the White House for a statement released by a middle level consulate official. 

Romney's statement read, in part, "It's disgraceful that the Obama administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks."  Very few facts were known at this point.  In response to Romney's attack, the White House put out a statement, "We are shocked that, at a time when the United States of America is confronting the tragic death of one of our diplomatic officers in Libya, Governor Romney would choose to launch a political attack." 

While many Republicans were questioning Romney's judgment, the candidate was doubling down at a news conference the next day.  Republican columnist Peggy Noonan said, ""Romney looked weak today I feel, I'm still kind of absorbing it myself, at one point, he had a certain slight grimace on his face when he was taking tough questions from the reporters, and I thought, 'He looks like Richard Nixon.'"

President Obama, in an interview with 60 Minutes, said that Romney tends to "shoot first and aim later."  He continued, “And as president, one of the things I’ve learned is you can’t do that, that, you know, it’s important for you to make sure that the statements that you make are backed up by the facts. And that you’ve thought through the ramifications before you make ‘em.”

The past few weeks have been very difficult for candidate Romney.  A just released Fox News national presidential poll shows President Obama with a 48% to 43% lead over Mitt Romney.  Perhaps Romney's actions have had an adverse impact on his campaign.  After all, you learn a lot about a person in a time of crisis.

   

Mendacity of Hope

The Republicans gained little momentum for their presidential ticket coming out of the GOP convention in Tampa last week.  In fact, the most memorable moment of the convention was Clint Eastwood's chat with the "Invisible Man."

One obvious conclusion is that Mitt Romney and Rep. Paul Ryan failed to offer viewers details about how they would fix the economy.  Another is that lying about your opponent's record on so many key issues may fire up your base, but it won't help win over undecided voters.   The convention's theme might have been "The Mendacity of Hope."

Now the Democrats convene in Charlotte, North Carolina, with a task of setting the record straight on the many Republican distortions, while, at the same time, offering a clear vision of how to move the nation forward.  For instance, the false claim by Republicans that the president has waived the work requirement for welfare.  In fact, the Department of Health and Human Services plan is designed to let states create alternative strategies aimed at improving employment outcomes by giving the states more flexibility, as long as they commit to increasing the number of people leaving welfare for work by 20 percent.  If states fail to reach the target the plan is terminated.

In an effort to court blue-collar white workers, the Romney campaign has been running a television ad that claims, "Under Obama's plan, you wouldn't have to work and wouldn't have to train for a job. They just send you your welfare check."   Yet, two Republican governors that wanted more control over work requirements originally requested the new policy from the White House, the same waiver then Governor Romney requested in 2005 along with 28 other governors.  

Republicans have also accused President Obama of cutting Medicare by $716 billion and hurting seniors.  But the president's actions are not cuts, they are only reductions in payments to insurance companies and health providers, and not to patients.  These are the same Medicare savings Rep. Paul Ryan called for in his budget.     

Rep. Ryan also claimed the president was responsible for the closing of a General Motors plant in his hometown of Janesville, Wisconsin.  But GM announced the closing of the plant before President Obama was elected and before the president's auto bailout, which is credited with saving the industry.  

“It began with a perfect AAA credit rating for the United States. It ends with the downgraded America.” With those words, Rep. Ryan also blamed the president for the downgrading of the U.S. credit rating.  But the credit rating was downgraded because Congress would not pass a debt-ceiling bill so the government could pay for money it had already spent.  Republicans in Congress held the debt-ceiling hostage in exchange for deep spending cuts.  They took America to the fiscal brink.  In lowering the credit rating, Standard and Poor's said, “the political brinkmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America’s governance and policy making becoming less stable, less effective and less predictable than what we previously believed." 

Rep. Ryan also attacked the president for his handling of the deficit.  “He created a new bipartisan debt commission,” Mr. Ryan said. “They came back with an urgent report. He thanked them, sent them on their way and then did exactly nothing.”  Mr. Ryan failed to point out he served on the commission and opposed their final proposals, which included some tax increases.  His opposition was a major blow to enactment of any of its proposals.  This is the same Mr. Ryan who claimed to run a marathon in less than three hours, a remarkable feat.  Now he admits that claim is not true.  

Republicans say the president's stimulus package did not work.  Yet most economists say that the stimulus package kept America from entering a second Great Depression.  And since President Obama took office, in the depths of the Bush Recession, the U.S. economy has added more than four million private sector jobs.  Economic growth remains anemic, but the world is still in the grips of a global recession.

The president was accused of conducting an "apology tour" for U.S. foreign policy.  Yet the president has never apologized for America.  In fact, when he received his Nobel Peace Prize, President Obama defended American foreign policy.  Meanwhile, the president made getting Osama bin-Laden a top priority and his policies have decimated the al-Quada terrorist organization. 

From the first day of Barack Obama's presidency Republicans, including Rep. Ryan, plotted a strategy to win back the White House in 2012.  Denounce, delay, deny, divide, and deceive.  So deep is their dislike of President Obama, that many accuse him of being a socialist, a Muslim, lying about being born in Hawaii, and about his grade point average in college.  

At their convention, Democrats must not only set the record straight on President Obama's record, they also must unite around a plan that will take this country forward.  The president must effectively communicate what he will do in a second term to reduce unemployment and rebuild the American economy.    

We are, indeed, at a crossroads.  In November, will voters reward those who will do and say anything to get elected?  Or will they side with hope and change? 

Romney/Ryan

"Join me in welcoming the next president of the United States," said Mitt Romney. Mitt muffed the announcement.  But, no doubt, many conservatives were thinking, "from Mitt's lips to God's ears!"  .   

Romney's pick of the youthful Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate plays to the conservative base of the GOP, many of whom are frustrated and distrustful of their party's banner carrier.  Ryan is the Republican intellectual leader on budget issues, and his selection inextricably links Romney to the Ryan budget, which calls for lower taxes and deep cuts in social programs.  

In his announcement, Romney disingenuously attacked President Barack Obama for $700 billion in Medicare cuts. It was the old misleading "Medi-scare" tactic again, targeted at senior citizens.  In 2009, Medicare spending was about $500 billion, and, according to the Congressional Budget Office, Medicare spending will grow to a budget busting $930 billion in 2020. 

President Obama has not cut Medicare, rather Obamacare calls for $500 billion in savings over the next decade through operational efficiencies and more effective care.  But Ryan's plan also calls for about $500 billion in savings.  The plan would control Medicare spending by converting some of it into subsidies for private insurance, thereby shifting more of the burden to individuals.  Ryan's plan also calls for privatizing Social Security.

The selection of Ryan turns the election into a choice rather than a referendum on Obama's presidency.  In Ryan's own words, "We promise equal opportunity, not equal outcomes."  To liberals, this is code for cutting social programs.  And President Obama’s campaign quickly responded saying Ryan’s selection is, “a commitment to the flawed theory that new budget-busting tax cuts for the wealthy, while placing greater burdens on the middle class and seniors, will somehow deliver a stronger economy.”

Ryan is chairman of the House Budget Committee and a member of the powerful Ways and Means Committee.  He is in his seventh term in Congress, and he previously worked as a staffer on Capitol Hill before his election.  He is a Washington insider who serves a largely rural Wisconsin district that sits between Milwaukee and Madison.  Ryan supported the Bush tax cuts, the Iraq War, and TARP, the 2008 government bank bailout that was unpopular with conservatives.  

During the Republican presidential primary, then candidate Newt Gingrich said the Ryan budget plan was "social engineering", a charge he later retracted.  The CBO said of the plan that it was possible seniors would face higher costs, and its enactment could result in, “reduced access to health care; diminished quality of care; increased efficiency of health care delivery; less investment in new, high-cost technologies; or some combination of those outcomes.”  

Upon accepting the role as Romney's running mate, Ryan said, "We won't duck the tough issues, we will lead. We will not blame others we will take responsibility.  We won't replace our founding principles, we will reapply them."  Ryan is young, 42 years-old, energetic, ambitious and driven.  He is severely conservative on social issues like abortion and gun control, and a Catholic.  

Ryan's selection will only further highlight the differences between the opposing sides and charges up the party base.  But his selection may cause problems among another key group of likely Republicans voters: seniors.  Furthermore, it is unclear how his views will be received among independent voters, a group likely to decide the election's ultimate outcome.     

This has been a rough month for Romney, filled with gaffs and missteps by his staff.  Romney has been under siege to release more of his federal tax returns, including from leading Republicans.  Questions of the legality of a $100 million trust fund he set up for his sons and of the wisdom of establishing off shore bank accounts have been a constant drumbeat. The Ryan announcement is sure to provide a brief respite from all the incoming attacks.    

Romney corrected himself in Saturday's Ryan announcement, ""Every now and then I'm known to make a mistake. I did not make a mistake with this guy. But I can tell you this. He's going to be the next vice president of the United States."  And later, Ryan was earnest, "It will take leadership and the courage to tell you the truth, Mitt Romney is this kind of leader, together we will unite this country and get this done."

Now the two sides are more clearly defined for voters.  But will the vice presidential candidate matter?  In the end, the election will rest on the state of the economy on election day, and on who voters believe they can trust.  Mitt Romney still has a lot of work to do on the trust issue.   

 

Obama's Leadership

As Americans try to enjoy Labor Day weekend this year too many find themselves without a job and with little hope of finding employment in the near future. This is because Washington remains embroiled in a partisan battle over what steps to take to get the economy growing again.

The latest unemployment statistics released Friday were dismal. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the official jobless rate for August held at 9.1%, for the first time since World War II there were no new jobs added to the economy. Black unemployment hit 16.7%, the highest it has been in three decades, and 11.3% of Hispanics are out of work. Equally depressing was the fact that on Thursday the White House forecast the unemployment rate will be 9.1% for 2011 and only slightly better in 2012, 9.0%.

In response, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) called President Barack Obama's economic policies "abysmal." In a written statement he continued, "The President’s policies have failed to deliver on his promises of job creation, deficit reduction, and much-needed economic growth.” House Speaker John Boehner (R-Oh) simply Tweeted, "Where are the jobs?"

Over the past three months the U.S. economy has added an anemic average of 35,000 jobs. It takes an addition of 150,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. Meanwhile companies are hoarding $2 trillion dollars, primarily due to the lack of consumer demand, that could be invested in their businesses. And many Americans, suffering the the adverse effects of a terrible housing market, are reluctant to spend.

There is plenty of blame to go around for this country's economic woes. But Americans are tired of Washington's "blame game." Most of them understand that President Obama inherited an economy in free fall and he took important steps to avert a second Great Depression. But the president has been in office for forty months and it appears nothing has changed when it comes to the economy.

Enormous pressure is focused on the president, who will address the nation next Thursday. The president is expected to announce several initiatives to get people working again. The New York Times reports that they will include a tax credit for businesses to increase their payrolls, an extension of the payroll tax credit for individuals and an infrastructure bank targeted at fixing roads and railways. Congressional Republicans will likely be able to block or delay implementation of all the president's proposals. And even if Congress passed an infrastructure bank, it will take months to begin feeling the impact.

The November 2012 presidential election will most likely be decided on who voters think can get America back to work again. Republicans will turn the election into a referendum on President Obama's handling of the economy. For political reasons they will do all they can to forestall any progress over the next year. Instead they will proffer their own pro-business, deficit-reducing initiatives.

In order to make a strong case for his reelection the president must be able to demonstrate that he has this country on the right track to a sounder economy. The president must make big bold proposals to reduce unemployment in his speech next week and then follow it up with a fierce and well-executed campaign against Republicans to get his agenda passed.

President Obama must give Americans a reason to vote for him. To do so the president must now show, in a two words, unrelenting leadership.