Trump's Broken Promises

As President Donald Trump closes in on his first 100 days in office he is scrambling to defend his inept performance so far in office.  Perhaps this is best illustrated by his announcement last week that he was sending an armada toward North Korea, only to  find out Monday that it was on its way to Australia.  

Candidate Trump made big promises on the campaign trail.  His promises were targeted at key voting blocks in order to mobilize them to vote last November.  A crackdown on illegal immigration, a border wall with Mexico, tax reform, repeal and replacement of Obamacare, better trade deals, a ban on Muslims, extreme vetting, and a stronger military are among the issues Trump ran on.  The strategy gave the GOP control of the White House and both houses of Congress in a bitterly fought election, which included an assist from Russia.

On Tuesday President Trump told a rally in Kenosha, Wisconsin, "No administration has accomplished more in the first 90 days."  Never one to let the truth get in the way of a good story, it appeared that the president was trying out his talking points in advance of the 100-day mark.  But the truth is President Trump has failed to truly deliver on most of his promises.   And a  recent Gallup Poll shows that just 45% of Americans believe Trump keeps his promises, a sharp decline in two months.   

For seven years Republicans demonized President Barack Obama and this eponymous health care bill.  Candidate Trump promised to repeal and replace Obamacare on his first day in office.   But Republicans could not bridge the deep divisions within their own party, especially with the conservative House Freedom Caucus.  In February, a frustrated President Trump told a meeting of governors, "Nobody knew health care could be so complicated."  

House Speaker Paul Ryan had to withdraw his healthcare bill, even following heavy lobbying from the president, in large part because polls showed it had the support of about 17% of Americans. The GOP alternative would have kicked 24 million people off of heath insurance.  This is in sharp contrast to what Trump told 60 Minutes in 2015.  "I am going to take care of everybody.  I don't care if it costs me votes or not," he said, adding, "Everybody is going to be taken care of much better than they're taken care of now." 

The GOP healthcare bill is linked by party leadership to tax reform.  A repeal of Obamacare would mean a $1 trillion cut in taxes for the wealthy.  Republicans would then have an easier task of finding savings in the budget to secure further tax cuts.   The fate of tax reform is now uncertain.

The wall along the U.S. border with Mexico became a battle cry for Trump supporters during the campaign.  And candidate Trump insisted that Mexico would pay for the wall, which he estimated would cost $8 to $12 billion.  Mexican officials have been consistently adamant that they will not pay for the wall, which Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill, who sits on the Senate Homeland Security Committee, now estimates could "soar" to $70 billion in construction costs.   And to what end, since a majority of immigrants in the U.S. illegally either overstayed their visas or came on a ship?

With much fanfare the president signed a controversial executive order in late January which suspended the U.S. Refugee Program and denied entry to citizens of Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Sudan and Yemen.  The EO led to chaos at airports around the world, and international denunciations.  A federal judge blocked the order because it unfairly targeted Muslims, as thousands of protestors jammed airports around the country to oppose the order.   The EO was poorly conceived and executed, and led to internal finger pointing.  A new updated EO was issued in March, but it is subject to an indefinite preliminary injunction.   So much for Trump's Muslim ban.  

The president campaigned passionately against the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, which he has promised to renegotiate.  He said it was taking away American jobs.  But Trump will have great difficulty redoing this complex trade deal, and he knows it.  And now the president has reversed himself on his campaign charge that China is a currency manipulator.  Given the need to enlist China's support in dealing with North Korea, and following a meeting with the Chinese leader, Trump has flip-flopped.   Perhaps not so coincidentally, China approved three trademarks for Ivanka Trump's company on the same day she dined with her father and the Chinese president at Mar-a-Lago.  

The president has signed executive orders undoing some of President Obama's regulation, including related to the environment.  He was also able successfully appoint Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court with an assist from the Senate Republicans.  But Trump has had the worst first 100-days of any modern era president.  To exacerbate his problems, the probes continue into whether the Russians had any ties to members of the Trump campaign.  Infighting between chief strategist Steve Bannon and son-in-law Jerod Kushner has broken into the open and spawned unprecedented leaks to the media.  Trump continues his attacks on the "fake" media while tweeting reckless and untrue comments, like President Obama wiretapped him.  And Trump has decided to keep the White House visitor logs secret, which now raises questions about transparency.  

With Trump's popularity low and a rocky start of his presidency, Republicans are beginning to speak out.  Senator Joni Ernst distanced herself in comments at a town hall in Iowa yesterday.   "I think we have a president that has a number of flaws," she stated with unusual candor.  "I support a majority of his policies, versus the actual person, but I decry any time a person is ugly towards another person, I don't think that's appropriate."  She also said Trump should release his taxes.

Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress, so President Trump should have had an easy time achieving much of his agenda.  But governing takes a different set of skills than campaigning.  Trump's lying, personal attacks, distortion and distraction have worn thin on the very people he needs to support him.  So too, thankfully, has the list of unfulfilled promises, many of which would severely impact the very people who voted for Donald Trump because they mistakenly believed he alone could fix it. 

The 2014 Midterm Elections

With less than 10 weeks to go before the midterm Congressional elections Americans in general are frustrated with Washington.  National polls show that about three quarters of all Americans disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job.  By comparison, about half of those Americans polled disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of his job. 

Sunday's New York Post reported that 163 laws have been passed and signed by the president since this two-year term of Congress began in January 2013.  That is far lower than the 284 laws that were passed by the 2011-2013 session, which is an all time record for fewest bills passed.  Congress passed 386 laws during the 2009-2011 session.   Former Representative Lee Hamilton (R-IN) told the Post, "I've never seen it any worse in terms of public esteem for the Congress.  I can't find anybody who says a good word about it."

Despite Congress's lack of productivity, and as outrageous as it may seem, it appears that most incumbents will be reelected in November.   Conventional wisdom is that while most Americans want to get rid of Congress, they nonetheless support their own representative.  This is especially true during midterm elections because voter turnout is often very low, which gives incumbents an advantage.  But both parties are leaving nothing to chance, as a record amount of campaign dollars will be poured into this election, surpassing the $3.6 billion spent in 2010.   

Republicans currently hold a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives, 233-199; there are three vacant seats.  The GOP expects to expand its majority in the House.  Meanwhile, Democrats currently hold a majority in the Senate.  But of the 36 Senate seats in play, 21 of them held by Democrats, while 15 are held by Republicans.  If the GOP picks up six Senate seats this midterm they will be in the majority in both houses of Congress.  Most experts, including Nate Silver, of the election site FiveThirtyEight, give Republicans a slight edge to take those seats and become the majority party in the Senate.  

The Republicans are targeting the seven Democratic seats that are up in states where Mitt Romney beat President Obama in the 2012 presidential election.  They are also going after four additional Democratic seats in states where the president remains unpopular.  Republicans will do all they can to make this election about President Obama's unpopularity. 

Domestically the president has been attacked for executive actions he has taken to bypass the blockade that Congress has become.  For example, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who himself has presidential aspirations, has regularly attacked the president, telling Fox News "He believes somehow that he's become a monarch or an emperor that can basically ignore the law and do whatever he wants."  On the other hand, Republicans have attacked President Obama for being disengaged and "leading from behind" on foreign policy.  The president's recent comment the he does not have a strategy on dealing with ISIS in Syria was seized upon by Republicans.  Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI), said on CBS Sunday,  "What I want to hear from the president is that he has a strategy to finish ISIS off, to defeat ISIS."

Congressional and Senate Democratic candidates have tried to localize their elections, but Republicans are focusing on President Obama in an effort to energize their base.  So Democrats are trying to mobilize minority voters,  especially African-Americans, who generally don't vote in midterms.  Party activists are using the shooting in Ferguson, Mo., and conservative calls to impeach the president, to mobilize Blacks.  An increase in the number of Southern Blacks helped Democrats during the 1998 midterm election, when President Bill Clinton was under heavy fire from the right.

Ironically, the one Republican Senator who is in the toughest fight to be reelected is the man who has the most to gain if Republicans win majority control.  Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky), the Senate minority leader, has done all he can to obstruct and block the agenda of President Obama since the day he was sworn in to office in 2009.  McConnell is facing a vigorous challenge from Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.  McConnell is not popular in Kentucky, but a recent state poll shows he has the edge.  Lundergan Grimes is making McConnell's failings in Congress the issue.  But McConnell is tying his opponent to President Obama.  

Should Republicans take control of both houses the legislative process will grind to a halt.  Anything the Republicans pass, like efforts to defund Obamacare, will be vetoed by the president.  Meanwhile, congressional investigations into the so-called scandals surrounding the IRS and Benghazi will intensify.  The partisan divide will widen as Republicans try to score points before the 2016 Presidential Elections.   

Because so much is at stake, this coming election day is not a time for eligible voters to stay home.

Immigration Crisis

President Barack Obama should take executive action on immigration in an effort to ease the current humanitarian crisis along the border, even though some House Republicans have threatened to attempt to impeach him for exceeding his authority.   With the midterm elections just three months away, a Republican impeachment effort would energize Democrats to increase their turnout in key races throughout the country.

There are an estimated 11 million immigrants living illegally in the United States.  But over that past two years there has been an explosion of undocumented children caught crossing the border without parents or guardians.  The bulk of the children come from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, where crime, gangs and violence are rampant.  U.S. authorities have struggled with how to handle the surge.  Those coming from Mexico are immediately returned.  Those coming from Central America must be referred to the Department of Health and Human Services' Office of Refugee Resettlement by law and placed in temporary shelters to await their deportation proceedings.  But the surge has overwhelmed the system.  According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, 57,525 unaccompanied alien children were apprehended along the Southwest Border region in fiscal 2014. 

The president recently asked Congress to authorize $3.7 billion to deal with the crisis.  Instead the House approved two bills that would provide the administration with $694 million but end a program that protects some young immigrants from deportation for two years.  The president said Republican lawmakers are "not even trying to solve the problem."  Meanwhile, the Senate did not act, and Congress adjourned for its five week summer break.  

At a news conference Wednesday, the president was asked about Republican accusations that he is an "imperial president."  Obama responded, saying, "I promise you the American people don’t want me just standing around twiddling my thumbs and waiting for Congress to get something done. Even as we take these executive actions, I’m going to continue to reach out to Democrats and Republicans."  As to immigration, the president said, "So if I’m going to, for example, send more immigration judges down to the border to process some of these unaccompanied children that have arrived at the border, then that’s coming from someplace else, and we’re going to have to prioritize. That’s well within our authorities and prosecutorial discretion."

Under prosecutorial discretion the government could prioritize what cases it wants to pursue.  For instance, the president could authorize prosecutors to focus only on individuals with ties to organized crime or who are convicted of serious criminal offenses.  The president could also expand the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) for children who were brought into the country illegally.  Under the program, individuals apply for a renewable, two-year work permit and temporary reprieve from deportation proceedings.  This would be controversial and give Republicans a chance to charge that illegals are taking jobs away from citizens, even though that would not be true.

In June 2013, the Senate passed an immigration reform bill by a bipartisan vote of 68 to 32.  But the House has refused to take the measure up because of Republican opposition in its chamber.  Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio said last month that the bill would not have stopped the surge of illegal children.  “What I think would have prevented that from happening is sufficient border security on the ground that would have discouraged people from making that journey in the first place,” he told the Washington Times.
Nonetheless, the president is urging passage of the Senate bill.  "My preference would be an actual comprehensive immigration law. And we already have a bipartisan law that would solve a whole bunch of these problems," he said at his news conference.  "Until that happens, I’m going to have to make a choice. That’s what I was elected to do."

Now, while the do-nothing Congress is on its long summer break, the humanitarian crisis along the border worsens.   For sure, some Republicans will go back to their districts and rail at the president for inaction on immigration.  At the same time, House Speaker, and hypocrite, John Boehner is suing the president for exceeding his authority by delaying the employer mandate in the healthcare law that Boehner so vehemently opposes.  Should the president take executive action on immigration, Boehner may decide to raise the ante.

In the near future, Attorney General Eric Holder and Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson will present the president with options for changing deportation policies.  The president should move quickly on their recommendations and do what he was elected to do.    

A Country Divided

A recent CNN/ORC national poll indicates that if the 2012 presidential election were held today Governor Mitt Romney would beat President Barack Obama by a margin of 53% to 44%.  But a slew of recent national polls show that three-quarters of all Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing.  

Together these polls reflect enormous dissatisfaction with Washington.  Nonetheless, Republicans, even those in Congress, have been unrelenting in their attacks on President Obama.  Since Obama's first day in office in January 2009 Congressional Republicans have done all they can to block President Obama.  Worse, they have consistently done all they can to delegitimize the Obama presidency at all costs.  They have put party politics ahead of the well being of the American people.

Politics in America has always been a rough and tumble profession.  But, with the emergence of powerful conservative media outlets, the country has become more divided.  Calls for presidential impeachment have cast a shadow over most modern day presidents.  However, the chorus of impeachers seems louder in the past year.  A recent poll by CNN/ORC found that 57% of Republicans support impeaching Obama, while just 35% of independents and 13% of Democrats support such an action. 

The United States Constitution states, "The President, Vice President, and all civil Officers of the United States shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors."  Some Republicans point to Benghazi and the failure to secure America's southern border as reasons to impeach Obama.  Others cite Obama's use of executive orders as an abuse of power.  But President George W. Bush issued an executive order every 10 days, President Ronald Reagan issued an executive order every 7 days, and President Jimmy Carter issued one every 5 days.  In fact, Obama's rate of executive orders is the lowest since President Grover Cleveland.  

In the near future, President Obama will likely take action to change immigration laws, a hot button issue for Republicans who have blocked all efforts for meaningful reform.  White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer, speaking at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast last week, said, “It would be foolish to discount the possibility that Republicans would think about going down that path."  But many Republicans think it would be foolish to pursue impeachment.  They remember that right after the House voted to impeach President Bill Clinton in 1998, for perjury and obstruction of justice, his approval rating surged 10 points to 73% in a Gallup Poll. 

In mid July Republican House Judiciary Committee chairman Robert Goodlatte of Virginia said on ABC's This Week, “We are not working on or drawing up articles of impeachment.” He added, “The Constitution is very clear as to what constitutes grounds for impeachment of the president of the United States. He (Obama) has not committed the kind of criminal acts that call for that.” Meanwhile, House Speaker John Boehner, who has said he disagrees with impeachment, has moved ahead with plans to sue the president over his use of executive powers.  Specifically, Boehner is suing the president for failing to execute the health care law by delaying the law's employer mandates.  This is the same healthcare law House Republicans have voted more than 50 times to repeal.  

The Boehner lawsuit and talk of impeachment have given Democrats an opportunity to increase fundraising efforts.  Last week House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi emailed supporters, "Yesterday, for the first time in history, Congress voted to sue a sitting president. Today, the White House alerted us that they believe 'Speaker Boehner … has opened the door to impeachment.'"  Democrats face many difficult midterm elections this November, and may lose control of the Senate.  

Ten years ago then Senator Barack Obama made a keynote address at the Democratic National Convention that would win him broad acclaim.  "Now even as we speak, there are those who are preparing to divide us, the spin masters and negative ad peddlers who embrace the politics of anything goes." Obama said.  "Well, I say to them tonight, there's not a liberal America and a conservative America; there's the United States of America."

Sadly for America, those who embrace the politics of anything goes are winning. 

Obama: No Apologies

"We do not leave anybody wearing an American uniform behind," President Barack Obama said at a news conference in Brussels Thursday.  He was addressing the controversy that has swirled around the exchange of U.S. Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl for five high ranking Taliban prisoners that had been held in the U.S. prison at Guantanamo, Cuba.  The president offered this justification, "We had a prisoner of war, whose health had deteriorated, and we were deeply concerned about, and we saw an opportunity, and we seized it.  And I make no apologies for that."

Five years ago Bergdahl apparently walked away from his military post in Afghanistan, leaving behind his weapon and helmet.  He was soon captured by the Taliban.   Last Saturday the president was joined on the White House South Lawn by Bergdahl's family as he announced their son had been released.  But the good news, even many Republican members of Congress quickly tweeted their support, suddenly turned into a political firestorm of controversy.

Congressional critics include Senator John McCain, who described the exchanged Taliban prisoners as "the hardest of hard-core…possibly responsible for thousands of deaths."  The Joint Task Force Guantanamo earlier had classified them as high risk, and two are wanted by the United Nations for war crimes.  But the five Taliban terrorists, also known as the Gitmo Five, have been in custody at Guantanamo for more than a decade and have never been charged.  Further, once America's war in Afghanistan is over sometime next year, the U.S. would have had to release them.  

Many in congress, from both parties, claim that the president had failed to comply with his legal obligation to inform its members 30 days in advance of any prisoner release from Guantanamo.  On Thursday, President Obama said, "We had discussed with Congress the possibility that something like this might occur, but because of the nature of the folks that we are dealing with and the fragile nature of these negotiations, we felt it was important to go ahead and do what he did."

Discussions about swapping the Gitmo Five for Bergdahl have taken place in the past, including in 2011.  Then members of congress, and key administration officials, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, opposed such a deal.  But the conditions changed when Qatar agreed to keep the Taliban terrorists for one year, and the president announced the war will end next year.   Nonetheless, Congress will hold hearings on whether the president broke the law.

Most members of the military agree that Bergdahl had to be rescued.  On Sunday's edition of ABC's This Week National Security Advisor Susan Rice said, "He served the United States with honor and distinction…and we'll have an opportunity to learn what transpired in the past." Her comment was not received well by members of his platoon, many of whom have criticized Bergdahl.  "I believe that he totally deserted--not only his fellow soldiers--but his leadership that wanted the best for him and his country," Justine Gerieve, Bergdahl's former squad leader, told CNN.  

CNN also reported that Bergdahl had walked away from his post at least once before.  General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, posted a comment about Bergdahl on Facebook Monday night,  "As for the circumstances of his capture, when he is able to provide them, we'll learn the facts," he wrote.  "Like any American, he is innocent until proven guilty.  Our Army's leaders will not look away from misconduct if it occurred." 

Meanwhile, some of Bergdahl's fellow soldiers have charged that as many as eight U.S. servicemen died on patrols looking for him.  The New York Times reported Wednesday, "But a review of casualty reports and contemporaneous military logs from the Afghanistan war shows that the facts surrounding the eight deaths are far murkier than definitive."   The article points out that the soldiers normally did patrols in the high-risk area.  

With regard to the Gitmo Five, they will remain in Qatar for one year before they are able to leave the country.  Twelve years have passed since they were involved in fighting.  It is unclear what role they will play for the Taliban in the future.

The Afghanistan conflict is America's longest war.  About 2,300 members of the military have died there, and $700 billion has been spent by the U.S. waging the war there over the past dozen years.  There is reason to hope, as a second round of presidential elections will be held in Afghanistan next week.  The country will soon have a democratic transfer power for the first time in its history, and the enigmatic incumbent, Hamid Karzai, will be replaced by anew leader. 

Whatever the outcome, the new government will be fragile.  The Taliban will seek a role in the country's future.  U.S. and Afghan officials have been in secret talks with the Taliban about the post-war future.  While administration officials don't link the Bergdahl exchange to a bigger peace deal, it may have been an important first step toward a larger agreement between the parties.

For sure, Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl will have a lot to answer for when he is well enough to be questioned by the military.  And the White House is busy defending its unnecessarily messy communications with congress prior to the exchange.  The administration has opened itself up to Republican indignation and righteous platitudes.  Of course, the midterm elections are just around the corner.

Just imagine what the Republicans would have done to the president had Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl died in the hands of the Taliban.  

Republican Deaf Ears

Much of the country kicked off the New Year with heavy snowstorms followed by a blast of frigid cold temperatures.   But for 1.3 million Americans, whose unemployment checks have been cut off, this may be the coldest winter of all.

Congress returns on Monday, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says he will schedule a vote on extending unemployment benefits.  But the outcome is uncertain.  Many Republicans in both houses of Congress are opposed to extending benefits; especially those in the GOP controlled House of Representatives.   One administration official predicted Wednesday that failure to extend emergency unemployment insurance through 2014 will have a negative impact on 14 million Americans.   It will also have an adverse effect on the nation's slowly recovering economy because those affected will not be able to buy food and supplies.

Republicans, led by their Tea Party wing, have staked out a series of positions that, when viewed on whole, may leave them vulnerable in future elections.  The president has proposed raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10, which one recent study says will lift 5 million people out of poverty.  Republicans argue against such a move because they believe it is inflationary and it will end up costing jobs.

Congressional Republicans are also sparring with Democrats over their desire to reign in food stamps, citing cost, fraud and abuse.  But a recent statistical report released by the Department of Agriculture shows that the amount of food stamps given out in error is at an all time low, about 3%.  In 2000 the error rate was nearly 9%.

On Tuesday, a federal judge struck down a Florida law that required welfare applicants to undergo mandatory drug testing.  Republican Governor Rick Scott campaigned on the issue, and got the law enacted, arguing that it would ensure tax money was not going to illegal drugs.  A subsequent state study found that only 108 out of 4,086 people tested, 2.6%, were using narcotics.  The state records show that the program was costing more than it was saving.  Yet several other Republican dominated states have enacted a similar law, and Governor Scott has said the state will appeal the ruling.

The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, has been under attack from Republicans since it before it became law.  House Republicans have voted nearly 50 times to repeal the law.  The ACA, which got off to a terrible start due to problems with the federal website, provides many benefits.  It requires insurers to cover people with preexisting conditions, it ends lifetime or yearly caps on coverage, it makes it illegal for insurers to drop someone because they get sick, and it extends coverage to children under 26.   Most importantly, it gives 40 million uninsured Americans access to health care coverage, and it has already reduced the soaring growth of health care costs.  Yet Republicans do not have a plan to replace any of these benefits should their repeal efforts actually become successful.

Conservative Republicans are opposed to meaningful immigration reform.   There are now more than 11 million immigrants living illegally in the United States.  Hispanics and other minorities, who largely vote for Democrats, have been pushing for legislation to no avail.  Meanwhile, many Republican controlled states have enacted tough voter identification laws, citing massive voter fraud.   But the reported incidents of voter fraud in these states are actually minuscule.  Yet these laws fall disproportionately hard on minorities and the elderly, groups that vote for Democrats.

Following President Barack Obama's reelection and important Republican Congressional loses in the 2012 national elections, GOP Chairman Reince Priebus released an autopsy report assessing the reasons for the party's poor performance.  The findings were blunt.  At one point the report says the voters believe that "the GOP does not care about them and is doing great harm."  

It appears that the report has fallen on deaf ears.