Romney Tales

The story of the third presidential debate is not that President Barack Obama handily defeated Governor Mitt Romney. Rather, what was most noteworthy was how Romney suddenly embraced many of the president's foreign policy stances, as if to say, "Disregard all my previous positions."

Prior to the first debate Governor Romney was flailing and stumbling. President Obama was beginning to take a commanding lead in the polls as even some Republicans were making the switch. A debate win by the president would have effectively ended the Romney campaign. Of course, Romney had the president right where he wanted him.

President Obama, perhaps a bit overconfident, basically phoned in his first debate performance, while Romney came with a clear strategy, energy and purpose. The first debate was a game changer for Romney because it made him look like a legitimate contender. In contrast, President Obama looked as if he didn't care about a second term. Instead of a fatal blow to Romney, the first debate was a near fatal blow for President Obama.

While the president clearly won the rancorous second debate, held at Hoftra University, the results seemed to have little impact on voter sentiment. A bullying Romney commanded the stage, even treating the president disrespectfully. The debate devolved into a sparring match that did not benefit either candidate. Meanwhile, the president's lead in the national polls evaporated.

The third debate was on foreign policy, and moderated by Bob Schieffer of CBS News. For months candidate Romney had harshly criticized every aspect of President Obama's foreign policy. But in Monday night's debate Romney heaped praise on many of Obama's policies. At long last the governor had decided to come home to a more centrist position. He had won the nomination by being a "severe conservative," but Monday night he "Etch a Sketched" his persona into a moderate.

Romney agreed with many of the president's policies, even praising him a couple of times. Of course, there were a couple of tough exchanges, including over military spending. "Our Navy is older -- excuse me -- our Navy is smaller now than any time since 1917. The Navy said they needed 313 ships to carry out their mission. We're now down to 285." Romney said. "That's unacceptable to me. I want to make sure that we have the ships that are required by our Navy."

President Obama was ready with an answer, "You mentioned the Navy, for example, and that we have fewer ships than we did in 1916. Well, Governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets -- (laughter) -- because the nature of our military's changed. " He concluded, "And so the question is not a game of Battleship where we're counting ships. It's -- it's what are our capabilities."

Going into the final debate Romney had a clear strategy: avoid looking like a warmonger and sound reasonable. He was attempting to appeal to women. As a consequence his responses were so moderate it appeared he was doing all he could to distance himself from the neocons and the "Bush Doctrine." Romney has no foreign policy experience at all. In the past he has staked out very aggressive foreign policy positions against China, Russia, Syria and Iran.

What is most troubling is that Romney has had no problem changing his deeply-held positions to appeal to some constituency. This pattern has repeated itself throughout his political career. He was pro-choice before he was pro-life. He was for Romneycare before he was against Obamacare, which is based on the former. The reason Romney is a serial flip flopper is because he will do and say anything he needs to in order to become president. He has even changed his position on an issue mid-debate.

Romney is a salesman; he is a closer. He sounds convincing, confident and certain. But while he is never in doubt, he is frequently wrong. And worse, he is often misleading. Take his tax cut proposal, which does add up to $5 trillion over 10 years, and most benefits the truly rich. There currently aren't enough tax deductions to eliminate, including mortgage and charity, to pay for the tax cuts. But tax cuts do not grow the economy. The economy barely grew during President George Bush's presidency even though he had signed into law two unpaid for tax cuts, a.k.a., the Bush Tax Cuts.

For those who are now considering voting for Romney, buyer beware.

Romney's Debatable Performance

Governor Mitt Romney exceeded expectations in his debate performance at the University of Denver while President Barack Obama seemed to be trying to protect his lead. 

Romney needed to have a strong performance and he did.  According to a CBS News "snap poll", 46% of the 500 of uncommitted voters asked said that Romney won the debate, 22% said the president won, and 32% said it was a draw. 

It was clear that Romney and his debate team planned to exploit the debate format, moderated by PBS's Jim Lehrer, with an aggressive performance.  The challenger often has the advantage because the incumbent has to defend his record.  But Romney got help from his opponent and the moderator because he was not challenged on his statements.

President Obama was not confrontational.  He failed to raise Romney's embarrassing comments at a fundraiser that 47% are not personally responsible and depend on the federal government.  The president failed to get Romney to explain what loopholes he would eliminate in his tax reform plan to pay for his 20% across the board tax cut, which would cost $5 trillion.  That gave Romney the chance to say over and over his program would not cost $5 trillion.

Romney used, in Obama campaign manager David Plouffe's words, "theatrical aggression."  Romney sounded confident as he gave the appearance of offering specifics without doing so.  He criticized the president for "cutting" $716 billion from Medicare, the exact same amount Representative Paul Ryan, his running mate, and Republicans have voted to cut from the program.  Romney did admit his would turn Medicare into a voucher program, but glossed over its impact.

Romney said he would repeal Obamacare, the president's signature health care legislation, but failed to clearly explain in detail how he would replace it.  However, at one point he said his Massachusetts health care plan initiatives can apply nationally.  That would seem to mean that his individual mandate, which is unpopular, would also apply.  The president did not seize that opening.

For his part, President Obama did not mention his record of 30 consecutive months job growth, which has added more than 5 million private sector jobs to the U.S. economy.  He also did not take credit for saving the U.S. auto industry, which saved a million U.S. jobs.

The president was consistent, persistent, but he played it safe.  He was not forceful and he was not passionate.  He did not make a clear case for his reelection. 

The Romney campaign had leaked that their candidate would use zingers in the debate, but there were none.  Instead, he attacked the incumbent's record and surprisingly even used human anecdotes.  And in his strong summation he claimed he would turn the economy around and create 12 million new jobs in his first term.  Never mind that economic forecasters predict that the U.S. economy is currently on track to add 12 million jobs. 

Romney's performance was welcome relief to Republicans after several weeks of poor performances and embarrassing gaffs.  He was convincing, and his debate appearance revved up his own base.

But did Romney convert any new voters?  Will Americans support a candidate whose numbers do not add up?

Romney Stumbles

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.”  By his definition, were he alive today, Groucho Marx could point to Mitt Romney as a perfect example!   But, no doubt many Republicans wish they could Etch A Sketch away the past six weeks of the Romney campaign.

Today many political observers characterize Romney's campaign as desperate, disoriented, erratic and lacking a budget plan.  Yet, it was suppose to be so easy.  Having won a bitterly contested Republican primary, Romney would be able to position himself as a successful "Mr. Fixit" businessman who could save the U.S. economy.  His approach was to make the 2012 presidential race a referendum on President Barack Obama's handling of the economy.  But before Romney could get out of the starting gate, the Obama campaign went after Mr. Fixit.  

Romney was co-founder and once head of Bain Capital, one of the world's leading private asset management firms.  It turns out that they succeeded in saving some businesses.  But Bain also closed several companies down, took out millions of dollars and left thousands of people without jobs, all facts that the Obama campaign relentlessly pointed out. Of course, Bain Capital's main goal is to make big profits for its investors, not to create jobs.  At the Democratic Convention, Vice President Joe Biden put it this way, “Folks, the Bain way may bring your firm the highest profits. But it’s not the way to lead your country from its highest office.”

Romney said he was a successful governor of Massachusetts.   But his single biggest achievement was "Romneycare", the state's near universal health care law that was the blueprint for "Obamacare," which Romney has vowed to repeal on his first day if he is elected president.  But last week Romney said, on NBC's Meet the Press, ”Of course, there are a number of things that I like in health care reform that I’m going to put in place.  One is to make sure that those with pre-existing conditions can get coverage."  This set off a firestorm among conservative Republicans.  Later that day, Romney's campaign again reconfirmed he was against covering people with pre-existing conditions who have not had continuous health coverage. 

At the Republican Convention, Romney was upstaged by an embarrassing endorsement from actor Clint Eastwood, who crudely spoke to an empty chair that represented President Obama.  In his tepid acceptance speech, Romney focused on biography and talking points, but offered no specifics on how he would save the economy.  And, in an inexplicable omission, Romney failed to mention the American soldiers serving in Afghanistan and around the world.

The Republican candidate, looking to further mobilize his conservative base and add some spice to the ticket, brought Representative Paul Ryan on as his running mate.  Ryan is a favorite of the right, and author of the Ryan Budget Plan.  But that plan, which was has widespread support among Congressional Republicans, calls for deep cuts in entitlements.  Under Ryan's plan, Medicare would be voucherized and Medicaid would be converted to block grants to states.  As a result, recipients would be left to personally pay for some of the quickly increasing medical costs they will face in the future.

If he embraced Ryan's plan, Romney would risk alienating many seniors, a critical demographic in many swing states.  So Romney has been distancing himself from the Ryan plan.  In an interview with CBS News, he was asked, "Are you running on [Ryan's] budget or on your budget?" Romney responded, "My budget, of course, I'm the one running for president."  Yet, Romney has failed to offer specifics for about his budget.

Romney has also failed to explain why he has parked so many of his investments in off shore accounts.  He found himself on the defensive on his personal taxes.  He has adamantly said he will release only two years of federal returns.  In his 2010 return he paid an effective rate of 13.8 percent in taxes on an income of $21.7 million.  He has not yet released his final 2011 returns, but he has estimated he will pay an effective rate of 15.4 percent on income of $20.9 million.  His taxes are certain to remain an issue heading into the election.

Romney and Ryan have little foreign policy experience, and it shows.  Candidate Romney has blustered about the Russians and the Chinese as if, to use the president's description, he is "stuck in some cold-war tie warp."  So it is no wonder he was poised to seize an opportunity to criticize the president on foreign policy.  While terrorists were attacking the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya, which left four Americans dead, Romney was attacking the White House for a statement released by a middle level consulate official. 

Romney's statement read, in part, "It's disgraceful that the Obama administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks."  Very few facts were known at this point.  In response to Romney's attack, the White House put out a statement, "We are shocked that, at a time when the United States of America is confronting the tragic death of one of our diplomatic officers in Libya, Governor Romney would choose to launch a political attack." 

While many Republicans were questioning Romney's judgment, the candidate was doubling down at a news conference the next day.  Republican columnist Peggy Noonan said, ""Romney looked weak today I feel, I'm still kind of absorbing it myself, at one point, he had a certain slight grimace on his face when he was taking tough questions from the reporters, and I thought, 'He looks like Richard Nixon.'"

President Obama, in an interview with 60 Minutes, said that Romney tends to "shoot first and aim later."  He continued, “And as president, one of the things I’ve learned is you can’t do that, that, you know, it’s important for you to make sure that the statements that you make are backed up by the facts. And that you’ve thought through the ramifications before you make ‘em.”

The past few weeks have been very difficult for candidate Romney.  A just released Fox News national presidential poll shows President Obama with a 48% to 43% lead over Mitt Romney.  Perhaps Romney's actions have had an adverse impact on his campaign.  After all, you learn a lot about a person in a time of crisis.

   

Obama's Path

President Barack Obama accepted the nomination of the Democratic Party with a humble, values-oriented appeal to the voters who elected him in 2008.  At one point he quoted President Abraham Lincoln, "While I’m proud of what we’ve achieved together, I’m far more mindful of my own failings, knowing exactly what Lincoln meant when he said, 'I have been driven to my knees many times by the overwhelming conviction that I had no place else to go.'

Expectations soared when the president was elected four years ago on a campaign filled with the promise of "hope and change."   To those who may be disappointed in his first term, the president said, "Hope has been tested – by the cost of war; by one of the worst economic crises in history; and by political gridlock that’s left us wondering whether it’s still possible to tackle the challenges of our time."

Saying it wouldn't be easy, the president said this election was a choice between two visions,  "Our problems can be solved. Our challenges can be met. The path we offer may be harder, but it leads to a better place. And I’m asking you to choose that future."  President Obama said his opponents wouldn’t tell you their plan, except cut taxes and roll back regulations.  “Have a surplus? Try a tax cut. Deficit too high? Try another.”  The president joked, “Feel a cold coming on? Take two tax cuts, roll back some regulations, and call us in the morning!”  He concluded, "We’ve been there, we’ve tried that, and we’re not going back. We’re moving forward."

The president highlighted his record of adding jobs, bailing out the auto industry, investing in education, energy, dealing with the environment, national security, and taking on the deficit.  He pointed out that his opponents have no foreign policy experience.  "After all, you don’t call Russia our number one enemy – and not al Qaeda – unless you’re still stuck in a Cold War time warp." the president said. " You might not be ready for diplomacy with Beijing if you can’t visit the Olympics without insulting our closest ally."

The president offered an alternative, "In a world of new threats and new challenges, you can choose leadership that has been tested and proven. Four years ago, I promised to end the war in Iraq. We did. I promised to refocus on the terrorists who actually attacked us on 9/11. We have. We’ve blunted the Taliban’s momentum in Afghanistan, and in 2014, our longest war will be over. A new tower rises above the New York skyline, al Qaeda is on the path to defeat, and Osama bin Laden is dead."   The president then thanked the U.S. military for their service in his address, a glaring oversight by Romney last week.

President Obama said he will never turn Medicare into a voucher, referring to Rep. Paul Ryan's plan.  He said he will not turn Social Security over to Wall Street.  He also said, "I refuse to ask middle class families to give up their deductions for owning a home or raising their kids just to pay for another millionaire’s tax cut."  The president reaffirmed his position on raising taxes on the wealthy.  And, answering a Republican theme, he said, "We don’t think government can solve all our problems. But we don’t think that government is the source of all our problems – any more than are welfare recipients, or corporations, or unions, or immigrants, or gays, or any other group we’re told to blame for our troubles."

President Obama's speech set out a sharp contrast with his opponents.  He humbly asked for American's support,  "If you believe in a country where everyone gets a fair shot, and everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same rules, then I need you to vote this November."

President Obama followed powerful speeches by Vice President Joe Biden and Senator John Kerry, who was defeated in his 2004 run for President by President George W. Bush. 

The vice president spoke to the middle class and to those families who are struggling.  He identified and connected with them by relating his and President Obama's family history.  He then attacked Mitt Romney for opposing President Obama's rescue of the automobile industry.  Romney said they should be allowed to go bankrupt.  

Biden then rallied the house with his oft repeated line, "Osama bin-Laden is dead and General Motors is alive!"  He excoriated the Republican ticket on Medicare.  Saying the opposition didn't tell their audience that;  "The plan that they have already put on paper would cut for benefits for more than 30 million seniors."  He continued, "it would cause it to go bankrupt by 2016."  

On the deficit, the vice president said of the Republicans, "They didn’t tell you they rejected every plan put forward by us, or the Simpson-Bowles commission to reduce the debt."  He then jabbed Romney's talk of a "jobs tour", saying, "With his support for outsourcing it’s going to have to be a foreign trip."

He emphatically insisted "America is not in decline," and that it has never been a good bet to bet against the American people!"  In a very emotional moment, he recognized the "incredible debt we owe" the American military dead and wounded.  "We must never forget their sacrifice!"

Earlier, Senator Kerry was brutal in his criticism of Mitt Romney.  On foreign policy, he said, "He has all these neo-con advisors who know all the wrong things about foreign policy. He would rely on them--after all, he's the great outsourcer." Then he added, "This is not the time to outsource the job of commander in chief."

Playing off the "Are you better off?" riff that is used by Republicans, Kerry said, "Ask Osama bin Laden if he is better off now than he was four years ago," to a rousing ovation.  In response to Republican criticism that President Obama has let Israel down, the senator noted that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has said of the U.S. under Mr. Obama's leadership, "our security cooperation is unprecedented."

Finally, in a stinging shot at Mitt Romney's failure to mention American troops in his acceptance speech, Kerry said, "No nominee for president should ever fail in the midst of a war to pay tribute to our troops overseas.'

The Democratic Convention was authentic, warm and stirring, thanks to memorable speeches by First Lady Michelle Obama, Mayor Julian Castro and President Bill Clinton.   It overshadowed last week's Republican Convention, which was short on specifics and solutions.  But will it be enough to help President Obama overcome a sluggish economy and high unemployment?   Will voters take the president at his word, "America, I never said this journey would be easy, and I won’t promise that now. Yes, our path is harder – but it leads to a better place."

Mitt Romney: The Speech

This week the Republican Party will nominate their candidate for President of the United States, Mitt Romney.  And when Romney takes the podium Thursday night to accept his party's nomination he will be delivering the most important speech of his life. 

The Republican presidential primary campaign was brutal, as candidates fought hard for the approval of their party's largely conservative base.  Mitt Romney had to defend his previous moderate leaning tendencies, and his authorship of "Romneycare," the blue print for President Obama's universal health care legislation.   To do so, Romney aggressively attacked his opponents with negative ads, spent a ton of money, and fine-tuned some of his political positions in order to appeal to the GOP right.    

Yet, although Romney won the nomination, most Americans are uncertain about whom he is.  This Thursday night Romney will be introducing himself to America, while, at the same time, he will have to reassure his conservative party base that he can beat President Obama, and he can be trusted not to change his positions on taxes and social issues.

Romney's speech writing team has been hard a work trying to find the right balance.  On one hand, Romney will try to connect with his audience, something he failed to do very well during the primary campaign.  He will try to sound warm and likeable, not stiff and corporate.  He will add some biographical details, including a reference to his wife's ongoing battle with multiple sclerosis.  But also look for Romney to make the case the he should be elected president.  Here he will emphasize his successes as a businessman, governor, and head of the U.S. Olympics Committee, as examples of how he can lead.  

For sure, there will be plenty of quotable one-liners to stir delegates on the convention floor and appeal to the home audience.  Here's one you won't hear: "Watch my lips, no new taxes!"  Here's one you will hear: "President Obama is the only president to cut Medicare."  Of course, the president didn't cut Medicare--but why let the facts get in the way of an applause line.

Romney's speech will not be truly successful if he simply attacks President Obama's record.  He will need to offer independent voters more than the usual talking points: "Cut taxes, cut regulations and become totally energy independent."   Nor can he just simply say, "I have a 59 point plan to save the economy--it's on my website."  

Of course, the devil is always in the details, and Romney's economic plan simply does not add up.   For instance, how can he significantly cut taxes (which mostly benefits the wealthy) and increase defense spending, yet still balance the budget?  It's not possible unless he also massively cuts entitlement programs--like Medicare and Medicaid.  (Enter Representative Paul Ryan?)  So, Mr. Romney, specifically what government programs will you cut to balance the budget?  You owe Americans an explanation.  

Why will cutting taxes create jobs?  The "Bush Tax Cuts" have been in place for a decade, but they have had little impact on the job market, while making the rich even richer.   As part of his tax plan, Romney proposes eliminating tax loopholes, yet he has offered no specifics.   Does he mean offshore tax havens (I don't think so)?  Does he mean home mortgages or charity?   Details Mr. Romney, details? 

Of course, Mr. Romney will promise in his speech to end "Obamacare" to the delight of the floor delegates.  Ironically, he crafted a universal health care law that passed in Massachusetts and relies on an individual mandate, but now opposes the concept.   Mr. Romney, what is your replacement plan?  How will you close the "doughnut hole" on prescription drugs for more than 5.2 million Medicare beneficiaries who have already saved more than $4 billion since Obamacare went into effect? 

Romney has promised to eliminate Planned Parenthood if he is elected president.  Of course, conservatives hate Planned Parenthood because of its association with birth control and abortion.  But Romney is not likely to offer too many details in his speech on abortion, other than, "I believe in the sanctity of life."  Part of the problem is that in the last decade Romney has been pro-abortion, then later anti-abortion, except in the cases of incest and rape.  But the GOP 2012 platform calls for a ban on all abortions, with no exceptions.  

Romney is likely to accuse President Obama of campaign distortions and tarnishing the office of the presidency.  But Romney has been a leading practitioner of negative and misleading ads beginning in the primary.  For instance, most recently a Romney sponsored ad that says, "The president ended a provision requiring welfare recipients to work."  Wrong, but it plays well with blue-collar workers in swing states.  Or a Romney "joke" about his birth certificate.  Don't look for Mitt Romney to denounce the idiotic "Birther" movement from the dais.  

No matter how well Romney performs Thursday--and he should do very well--no mater how enthusiastically he is received, no matter how amazing all the production gimmicks are, there are still many questions that will, pardon the expression, always dog Romney.  He is, after all, extremely private, controlling and ambitious.    

Imagine:  Romney pauses in his speech Thursday to look up toward the heavens. At that point he hears the voice of his father, Governor George Romney, once a Republican candidate for president.  "Release more tax returns Mitt!"  To which he replies, "You're getting two years, and that's it!"

It's Not My Default

Republicans and Democrats are on a collision course over raising the nation's debt ceiling. Failure to do so will have dire consequences on all Americans and the global economy. Regretfully, it is politics as usual in Washington.

Most experts agree that failure to raise the debt ceiling will cause the United States to default. The consequences of a default will be catastrophic on the already frail American economy. Government payrolls and entitlement programs will not be funded. Interest rates on loans will increase. More people will be thrown out of work. And such a failure will send a tsunami through world economic markets, which are already teetering because of Greece, Italy and Ireland. The global standing of America will be rocked and confidence in the U.S. economy will be severely shaken across the world.

Up to now raising the debt ceiling has been more or less a routine matter. Most Republicans did not blink when it came to casting their annual approval during the deficit-riddled administration of President George Bush. President Bush ran up huge deficits due in large part to his unfunded tax cuts and two wars. What has changed?

Republicans have seized on the debt ceiling crisis to gain deep cuts in the U.S. budget, perhaps following the axiom, "Never let a crisis go to waste." They see an opportunity to scale back future government spending in order, they say, to achieve long-term financial stability and grow more jobs. But so far recent government cuts on the national and state level have resulted in thousands of layoffs as well as reductions in education and critical services.

While President Barack Obama and most Democrats agree that some cuts are in order they have argued for a "balanced" approach. That means addressing the problem by raising some revenues, for instance by closing corporate loopholes and increasing taxes on the wealthiest individuals. Not to do so will put the burden on those least able to afford it. And, according to a recent poll, a large majority of Americans agree with this approach. However, Republicans firmly proclaim that raising any taxes will kill jobs. Never mind that there is no historical evidence to back their claim up.

So the two sides have dug in. Negotiations have reached a boiling point. Republican Speaker John Boehner is struggling to keep his caucus in line, with many of its members willing to let the nation to go into default. Most of them say that the impact of a default will not be too severe a price to pay if it results in deep spending cuts. Many have signed a no new taxes pledge. Republican Majority leader Eric Cantor is leading the hardliners, and may be positioning himself for the Speakership.

Meanwhile, negotiations at the White House to end the impasse continue. Accounts of these meetings vary depending on the party spinning the story. Did Rep. Cantor interrupt the president several times? Did a frustrated president abruptly walk out of the meeting? Who cares? Republicans say the debt is President Obama's problem. Democrats say it is the Republicans who are putting the country at peril.

It is time for all parties grow up. It is time to act in the best interest of the nation. It is time for our elected officials to cast partisan politics and petty rivalries aside and to put America first. Either pass a clean debt ceiling bill or compromise on managing future deficits with a mixture of budget cuts and some revenue enhancements. And then let the voters decide in 2012 which side it supports.