The Angry Republican Campaign

Republican presidential candidates are beginning 2016 with a full head of steam in what could be the most critical period for the party in decades.  While Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz currently are leading in the national polls of likely Republican voters, it is hard to predict the final outcome of next month's primaries and caucuses. 

For political junkies, the Republican race has so far been surprising and unpredictable.  Real estate mogul Donald Trump has dominated media coverage and the polls since he announced his candidacy last June.  From the very beginning he has exploited voter anger with caustic and abrasive rhetoric.  Over the weekend he told a cheering Biloxi, Mississippi, audience, “People are so tired of the incompetence. They’re so tired of stupidity.”  Trump has pledged to deport those who are in this country illegally, to build a wall along the Mexican border, and to temporarily stop Muslims from entering this country.

Meanwhile, Senator Cruz has played on voter anger to appeal to populist right voters with wild rhetoric like, "We will utterly destroy ISIS. We will carpet bomb them into oblivion. I don't know if sand can glow in the dark, but we're going to find out."  In Iowa, where he appears to be leading, he has targeted conservative Christians with lines like, "If the body of Christ rises up as one and votes our values, we can turn this country around." 

Voter anger is especially pronounced among Republicans.  A NBC News/Survey Monkey/Esquire on line poll shows that 61% of Republicans "say that current events say that current events irk them more than a year ago." Only 41% of Democrats feel the same way.  

As the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary approaches the large field of Republican candidates has begun attacking each other.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, campaigning in New Hampshire, railed against his opponents in remarks his staff released in advance Monday. “Bluster is not the leadership we crave.  Talking a big game and either not showing up or not knowing how isn’t what we desperately need today.”  Christie's speech was directed at Trump.   “Anger alone is not a solution...America needs leaders who not only identify our problems, but who have the ability to repair our broken system. That’s what this election is all about."  

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, whose disappointing campaign has so far failed to gain traction, attacked Trump in New Hampshire Monday.  "The job is not described in the Constitution as 'entertainer in chief,' or 'commentator in chief,' or even, frankly, 'economist in chief.' It is described as Commander in Chief," he said.  The self-righteous Rubio also observed, "We have Republican candidates who propose that rulers like Assad and Putin should be partners of the United States, and who have voted with Barack Obama and Harry Reid rather than with our men and women in uniform."

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, once thought to be the front-runner, has struggled for support despite being well financed.  He has proven to be a weak candidate, and he is burdened by his brother's legacy, former President George W. Bush.  Even his attack lines sound desperate and feeble. "Just one other thing -- I gotta get this off my chest -- Donald Trump is a jerk," he said at a town hall meeting last month in New Hampshire.  In a Florida town hall meeting in late December he said Trump gets his foreign policy advice from television, "He wakes up in his pajamas and watches the TV shows on Saturday and Sunday."

The Republican campaign has deteriorated into a schoolhouse brawl.  Candidates resort to personal attacks rather than to offering specific and detailed solutions to America's underlying problems.  This is not a campaign of new and exciting ideas; rather it is a misguided crusade that offers voters little hope for those tired of politics as usual.

No wonder so many Republicans are angry.   

Christie for President

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the latest Republican to announce he is running for president.  He joins an already overcrowded field of candidates seeking their party's nomination.  But Christie stands out because an overwhelming majority of his own state's registered voters disapproves of his performance in office. 

His announcement speech, which will take place Tuesday at his former high school, will be given without the aid of a teleprompter.  It will reflect his campaign theme, "Telling it like it is," and be targeted to Republican voters in New Hampshire, where he will go next to begin campaigning.  He will highlight his middle-class upbringing, his family values, and his willingness to make tough decisions on entitlements and government spending.

But many Republicans have not forgotten Christie's post Hurricane Sandy walking tour in 2012 with then candidate President Barack Obama, which came in his closely contested state at the expense of GOP candidate Mitt Romney.  Teachers in the state have not forgotten his harsh attacks on educators and college administrators in his effort to reform the education system.  Public sector unions have not forgotten that the governor has run roughshod over their pensions.  And commuters have not forgotten that it was Christie's appointees who shut down lanes of the George Washington Bridge, aka Bridgegate, as political retribution against those who did not support the governor's reelection.

In his announcement Christie is expected to point to his governance of a blue state as an example of how he can work with both sides of the political aisle.  But state Democrats would argue differently.  Christie will say he can make the tough decisions, but many of his opponents will criticize his tough tactics.

Christie's brash and in-your-face style will win him supporters among Republican voters seeking a candidate who seemingly has strong leadership skills.  He will stand out among the field of announced Republican candidates, and will likely do well in the upcoming party debates.  

But this self-described pragmatic conservative Republican is thought by many in the party to be too moderate to win the nomination.  While he has raised a lot of money as the Chairman of the Republican Governor's Association, more than $100 million, some of his political positions are not in sync with the Republican base, including immigration and gun control.  

Governor Christie was reelected to a second term in 2013 with 60.3 percent of the vote, which was driven largely by his leadership in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.  Because he is term limited he will not be able to run for governor again in 2017.  But even if he were eligible then it is unlikely that New Jersey voters, who have soured on his act, would reelect him.  So for him a run for the presidency is his next best option to be elected to public office.  

The fact is Christie has nothing to lose and everything to gain by pursuing the White House.   He has said, "I think what the American people want more than anything else right now is someone who's just going to look them in the eye and tell them the truth, even some truths that they don't like."  But the reality is do enough Republicans trust Christie enough to nominate him as their standard bearer in 2016?

Midterm Madness

A crisis is a terrible thing to waste, and the Republicans are capitalizing on every crisis, foreign and domestic.  With less than two weeks to go before the midterm elections, Republicans are perfectly positioned to win control of the U.S. Senate because the president is unpopular.

Republican Congressional candidates, from North Carolina to Iowa, are running against Barack Obama rather than their opponent.   Turnout in midterm elections is traditionally poor.  All Republicans have to do is mobilize their base by keeping the focus on President Barack Obama, pounding away at him with their message of incompetence and detachment.   If the Democrat base does not turn out, which appears likely, control of the Senate will change hands. 

Nothing mobilizes a population more than fear, and that's where the crises come in.  Republicans have seized on Ebola.   Congressman Louie Gohmert, R-Tx, along with other members of Congress, has called for a travel ban on citizens traveling from Western Africa to the United States.  The president has said he is open to the idea, but is currently relying on the judgment of most medical experts who say such a ban would be counterproductive.  "This president, I guarantee you, we're going to find out, he has cut a deal with African leaders.  They're going to bring people in," Ghomert told conservative media host Sean Hannity. 

It was noteworthy that Congressional Republicans raced back to the Capitol from their break for a hearing on the Ebola crisis, yet they have been unwilling to debate the issue of America's response to ISIS, the Islamic terrorist group that has threatened much of the Middle East.  Instead, they have attacked the president for his lack of leadership in handling the ISIS crisis.   

There is no question that most Americans are weary of Washington gridlock.  A recent poll found that 70% of "likely voters" disapprove of Congressional Republicans, while 61% disapprove of Congressional Democrats.  Meanwhile, 53% disapprove of the president's performance.  No wonder most voters will stay home on November 4. 

This election is not about issues--it is about politics.  Polls show that a majority of Americans would not repeal Obamacare.  In a moment of candor, Ohio Governor John Kasich, a potential Republican presidential candidate, was asked about repealing Obamacare.  "That's not going to happen," he told the Associated Press.  "The opposition to it was really either political or ideological...I don't think that holds water against flesh and blood, and real improvement in people's lives."  Later in comments to the Washington Post, Kasich, perhaps realizing he had been too honest, said he would repeal Obamacare.  "If the House and Senate (are controlled by Republicans) and we have a Republican president, Obamacare will be repealed flat out," he said.  "And it will be replaced."  Kasich was back on message.

Obamacare has been a big success in Kentucky, where it is a state exchange known as Kynect.  Yet, Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell, who is in a tight race for reelection in that state, denounced Obamacare in a recent debate.  "The best interest of the country would be achieved by pulling out Obamacare, root and branch," he said.  "Now with regard to Kynect, it's a state exchange.  They can continue it if they'd like to.  They'll have to pay for it because the (federal) grant will be over."  These remarks were no doubt unsettling for the more than 400,000 Kentuckians who have signed up for health insurance through Kyneck.  But McConnell is more interested in the politics of the issue. 

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, also a likely Republican presidential contender, had a moment of candor when he expressed frustration with all the talk of increasing the minimum wage to the Chamber of Commerce, a largely Republican group.  “I’m tired of hearing about the minimum wage,” Christie said. “I really am. I don’t think there’s a mother or a father sitting around the kitchen table tonight in America saying, ‘You know, honey, if our son or daughter could just make a higher minimum wage, my God, all of our dreams would be realized.’ ”  Democrats have been leading efforts to increase the minimum wage across the country as a way to address income inequality.  But Christie was clearly more interested in the politics of the room he was addressing.

Should the Republicans win the Senate this election, they will control both houses of Congress for the next two years.  The result will be further gridlock, more partisanship, and more frustration for all Americans.  But the Republicans will have what they want most, a political victory.  

GOP Traffic Jam

Governor Chris Christie has finally gone on the offensive to defuse "bombshell" revelations that he knew about the Ft. Lee lane closures at the time they were happening.  "The Governor first learned lanes at the George Washington Bridge were even closed from press accounts after the fact," the 700-word email from the governor's office said Saturday.  

The email attacked the press for publishing the story, and attacked the story's source, former New York & New Jersey Port Authority official David Wildstein, who is seeking immunity in the investigation. "Bottom line -- David Wildstein will do and say anything to save David Wildstein," the email said.  But the attack on Wildstein got unusually personal, "He was publicly accused by his high school social studies teacher of deceptive behavior."  Really?  This schoolyard retort reveals a frustrated and desperate man.    

Even if Governor Christie's story stands up through the rigorous legislative and federal investigations the incident has triggered, in the end his 2016 presidential aspirations will be snuffed out.  Questions about the way he ran his office, about the people he surrounds himself with, and his management style will dog him for years.  Conservative Republicans already did not support him for higher office.

So, with Governor Christie out of the mix, the race to be the Republican presidential nominee is wide open.   Whomever they choose will likely face a difficult challenge in the 2016 election. A recent Washington Post poll shows Hillary Clinton has a 6 to 1 lead among Democrats over all other potential candidates for the party's nomination.  Further complicating the Republican's task are the divisions within the party between the Tea Party faction and those who hew closer to the center.

The Hill reported that Florida Senator Marco Rubio is now getting a lot of attention, especially since Representative Paul Ryan said he would not run for the White House in 2016.  "A group of Republican fundraising heavyweights and wise men in Washington's business community are solidly behind Rubio, and see him not only as someone who could win the White House, but someone they can work with," The Hill said.  Senator Rubio, who counts himself a Tea Party member, has had his eye on this prize for some time.  He has recently amplified his positions against President Barack Obama, Obamacare, immigration and education.  Ultimately, his role in the immigration debate will have an important impact on whether he can secure his party's support.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has been outspoken on everything from Obamacare to NSA surveillance.  He is a proud libertarian, and aligns himself with the Tea Party on most issues.  But he has recently made controversial statements, and has been accused of plagiarism for lifting parts of his speeches from Wikipedia.  He may prove to be too independent minded for the ever buttoned down Republican Party.

The Republican Party has several governors who could rise to the challenge; Ohio Governor John Kasich and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker are among the strongest.   But neither has a national profile, and both have taken controversial positions on state issues.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would probably be the favored candidate if he decides to throw his hat into the ring.  Last week Bush said, "I'm deferring the decision to the right time, which is later this year."  A recent Washington Post poll shows him only behind Ryan among Republicans as the favored candidate.  Former First Lady Barbara Bush has said she doesn't believe her son should run.  Despite the fact that he is getting a lot of calls from top Republicans urging him to announce, he seems reluctant.  Should he decide to stay on the sidelines, Marco Rubio will benefit most.

Former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney has been appearing everywhere.  Even though some of his supporters have called for him to run again in 2016, he has said he won't.   His running mate in 2014, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, would be a long shot for obvious reasons, as would former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has thrust himself into the national limelight on issues like Obamacare, immigration and raising the federal debt ceiling.  The Harvard educated and overly ambitious Cruz is distrusted by many of his colleagues, especially Republicans.  His failed tactics led to last year's government shutdown.  His "never in doubt" attitude makes him a polarizing figure in Washington.  While the Canadian born senator is a darling of the Tea Party, it is unlikely that he could win his party's nomination.

At this point, the field of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination is wide open.  Governor Chris Christie's plight may not have altered the outcome of the Republican presidential nominating process, but it sure has led to another major traffic jam.

Christie-gate

Governor Chris Christie appeared humbled in his news conference Thursday as he apologized to the people of Ft. Lee New Jersey for the disruptive lane closures on the George Washington Bridge last fall.  He also said that he had "no knowledge or involvement" in the closures.  While he spoke with reporters for 107 minutes, the incident brings into focus many serious questions about the governor and his administrative team.  

Governor Christie was uncharacteristically contrite, regretful, ashamed, and even sad for the actions taken by of key members of his team.  "I am stunned by the abject stupidity that was shown here," Mr. Christie said.   He announced he had terminated his Deputy Chief of Staff Bridget Anne Kelly because "she lied to me" when he says he asked her several weeks ago whether she had any knowledge of the closures.   

The governor also announced that he had ended his support for the appointment of his campaign manager, Bill Stepien, as state Republican chairman.  Mr. Christie was reelected in a landslide last November.  The governor also announced that he had severed political ties with Stepien.  "I would not place him at the head of my political operation because of the lack of judgment that was shown in the emails," he said.

The news conference was prompted by email disclosures in the Record, a northern New Jersey newspaper also know as the Bergen Record.   Ms. Kelly sent an email last August to a Port Authority executive saying, "Time for some traffic problems in Ft. Lee."  The executive, David Wildstein, a childhood friend of the governor's, responded, "Got it."  Following the lane closures the Port Authority explained it was part of a last minute traffic study.  Later Wildstein admitted ordering the closures, and resigned his post.  On Thursday, he appeared before a panel of state legislators and repeatedly invoked his constitutional right not to say anything that might incriminate him.  

Speculation grew following the incident that it was in retaliation against Ft. Lee's Democratic mayor, who had not endorsed Mr. Christie's reelection.  The mayor, Mark Sokolich, was also the subject of some emails.  Bill Stepien, who was deputy chief of staff for intergovernmental affairs, reassured Wildstein at the time, writing, "It's fine.  The mayor's and idiot."  Stepien worked with local officials throughout the state to arrange town meetings.  At Thursday's news conference, the governor, who was Stepien's mentor, said, "reading that it made me lose my confidence in Bill's judgment, and you cannot have someone at the top of your political operation that you don't have confidence in." 

But is Governor Christie telling the truth about his lack of knowledge and involvement in the lane closures?  If any evidence to the contrary surfaces his presidential aspirations will be badly damaged.  The people who are so far known to have been involved are all very close to the governor, and in constant contact with him.  How could it be they never mentioned anything or "lied" to him?   Wildstein answered Kelly's email requesting traffic problems in Ft. Lee tersely, as if it had been a prearranged scheme.  Who was behind the lane closures?  Did she have the authority?

This was a terrible disruption that took place over several days and created mayhem for thousands of New Jersey commuters who were going to work or school.  Why didn't the governor, who says his first priority is serving New Jersey, immediately step in to deal with the problem?

Mr. Christie once served as United States Attorney for New Jersey.  He was an aggressive prosecutor, especially against corrupt public officials, and garnered a record of 130 convictions versus zero acquittals.  Yet, Christie did not individually question his aides about the closures.  Instead, he said he addressed his aides four weeks ago, "I put to all of them one simple challenge: if there is any information that you know about the decision to close the lanes in Fort Lee, you have one hour to tell either my chief of staff, Kevin O'Dowd, or my chief counsel, Charlie McKenna."  What happened to the aggressive prosecutor?  

The governor has nominated Kevin O'Dowd to be the state's new attorney general.  He is scheduled to appear before the state's Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday.  What was his role in the lane closures?  Since Bridget Anne Kelly reported directly to him, did she ever discuss the matter with him?  Will he answer relevant questions in Tuesday's hearing or provide emails?  

Did the governor receive emails at any point, or have any conversations on the lane closures beyond what he specified in his news conference.  The governor was asked by a reporter Thursday, "If you were to get a subpoena, for whatever reason, what would you do?"  Governor Christie responded, "I am not going to speculate on that."  What does that mean?

The governor has been characterized by his opponents as a politically ambitious, a micromanager, and a bully prone to retribution.  "I am not a bully," he said Thursday.  "Politics ain't bean bag," he continued,  "And everybody in the country who engages in politics knows that."  He admitted to having very heated arguments because, "I feel passionately about issues.  And I don't hide my emotions from people.  I am not a focus-group tested, blow-dried candidate or governor."  

Along with a legislative inquiry and the U.S. Attorney's investigation, Mr. Christie is facing a class-action suit filed by workers who claim the closures made them late for work and resulted in lost wages.   Even if there are no further disclosers implicating the governor, and everything he said Thursday holds up, and that's a big if, Governor Christie has a long and difficult road ahead of him.    

Christie vs. Paul

The escalating public dispute between New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has exposed the deep rift that exists between factions of the Republican Party.   But these two men have turned their differences into a food fight over "pork" and "bacon".   

The dispute began last week when Christie raised concerns about the dangers of libertarianism, espoused by Senator Paul, who has been an outspoken critic of the National Security Agency and other national security issues.  "I just want us to be really cautious because this strain of libertarianism going through both parties right now and making big headlines I think is very dangerous," Christie told a gathering of Republican governors at the Aspen Institute in Colorado.  

The always blunt governor then said,  "These esoteric intellectual debates, I want them to come to New Jersey and sit in front of the widows and orphans and have that conversation, " referring to the people who lost family members in the September 11 terrorist attacks.  He concluded, "And they won't, because that's a much tougher conversation to have."

On Sunday, a prickly Senator Paul lashed back, attacking the governor for his federal funding requests following Hurricane Sandy.  "They're precisely the same people who are unwilling to cut spending, and their "gimme, gimme, gimme, give me all of my Sandy money now," he told reporters.  "Those are the people who are bankrupting the government and not letting enough money be left over for national defense." 

Gimme, gimme, gimme a break, Mr. Paul!  The annual U.S. defense budget is $700 billion, larger than the combined defense budgets of the next dozen countries.  Meanwhile, Hurricane Sandy was the second most destructive storm in U.S. history; it left in its wake 159 dead and an estimated $69 billion in damage.   Nonetheless, Mr. Paul tore into the governor on Monday night in an interview with Fox News, "It's really, I think, kind of sad and cheap that he would use the cloak of 9/11 victims and say, 'I'm the only one who cares about these victims.'" 

Governor Christie, a former prosecutor, responded to Mr. Paul in a press conference Tuesday.  “So if Senator Paul wants to start looking at where he’s going to cut spending to afford defense, maybe he should start looking at cutting the pork barrel spending that he brings home to Kentucky, at $1.51 for every $1.00 and not look at New Jersey, where we get $0.61 for every $1.00,” Christie said, referring to the amount of money each state receives for each dollar it pays to the federal government.   “So maybe Senator Paul could — could, you know, deal with that when he’s trying to deal with the reduction of spending on the federal side.  But I doubt he would, because most Washington politicians only care about bringing home the bacon so that they can get reelected.”

On Tuesday evening, Senator Paul struck back at the governor in a CNN interview.  “This is the king of bacon talking about bacon,” he said. “You know, we have two military bases in Kentucky. And is Governor Christie recommending that we shut down our military bases?”  Then he raised the ante.  “He’s making a big mistake picking a fight with other Republicans, because the Republican Party is shrinking in — in New England and in the northeast part of our country."  He continued, “I’m the one trying to grow the party by talking about liberation ideas of privacy and the Internet.  And attacking me isn’t helping the party.  He’s hurting the party.”

Paul then puffed, “Why would he want to pick a fight with the one guy who has the chance to grow the party by appealing to the youth and appealing to people who would like to see a more moderate and less aggressive foreign policy."

Governor Christie and Senator Paul are both positioning themselves for the 2016 presidential election.  The Republican Party suffered a stinging defeat at the ballot box one year ago that resulted in a self-examination of its core values.  But there is a wide chasm between its conservative right and its more centrist members on the future direction of the party.  

These differences are reflected in the public spat between Mr. Christie and Mr. Paul.  With three more years remaining before the election, Democrats, who will likely nominate Hillary Clinton as their standard-bearer, are certainly enjoying the show.  

Romney's Veep-Stakes Are On!

Former Governor Mitt Romney is on the verge of sweeping this Tuesday's Republican primary elections.  Likely wins in Wisconsin, Maryland and the District of Columbia will add significantly to his already commanding delegate lead, and increase pressure on his opponents to throw their support to the former Massachusetts Governor.

More leading Republicans are getting on the Romney bandwagon each day in hopes of ending the divisiveness that has characterized much of the Republican primary campaign so far.  Even after all of their harsh criticisms, former Senator Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich have each said they will support Romney if he ends up getting the party's nomination. But they both, along with Representative Ron Paul, are still campaigning to be their party's standard-bearer. 

Rick Santorum shows no signs of easing up.  On Sunday, he compared Romney to Senator John McCain, who lost the 2008 election to President Barack Obama.  "We came up with someone who wasn't able to win," Santorum said on Fox News Sunday. "We don't need to repeat that again. We don't need to bail out and not have the best candidate to take Barack Obama on in the fall."  Santorum has accused Romney of not being a conservative; flip--flopping on many issues and of being the author of Romneycare, the blue print for the President's health care reform law.  Santorum insists he will present a stronger contrast in the general election.

Nonetheless, establishment Republicans have already turned their attention to who would be the best running mate for Romney.  Speculation has Florida Senator Marco Rubio as the best choice.  A Tea Party favorite, supporters believe Rubio could improve the Republican's chances among Hispanics.  Rubio is of Cuban heritage, but Cubans make up only a small percentage of the U.S. Hispanic population.  More than 60% of that population is Mexican, and they tend to vote for Democrats.

Another potential vice presidential candidate is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.  Christie has campaigned hard for Romney, and his blunt, in-your-face style frequently outshines the former governor in joint appearances.  But voters in a presidential election don't vote for a president because of their running mate. That is up until now.

This election will rest heavily on Mitt Romney's ability to convince voters he is more qualified for the job than President Obama.  And that he has a better plan to increase employment, lower gasoline prices and assure America's national security.  Yet many of his proposals feel like déjà vu; the same Republican policies of cutting taxes on the wealthiest Americans while ending some loopholes, more oil and gas drilling rather than developing alternatives, and a extremely hard-line foreign policy.  Or will he wipe his Etch A Sketch clean and redo his positions for the general election? 

The fact is Mitt Romney is an opportunist.  That is how he made his money in business.  And Mitt Romney is an elitist.  He is from the upper tier of the one-per centers.  His friends own football teams, they don’t play for them. He cannot easily connect with regular people; he's a Mittbot.  So he is prone to make comments that most normal people consider gaffs.

Who can forget this Romney gem last August from Iowa: "Corporations are people, my friend… of course they are. Everything corporations earn ultimately goes to the people. Where do you think it goes? Whose pockets? Whose pockets? People's pockets. Human beings, my friend."  Or this heart-warming comment two months ago, "I like being able to fire people who provide services to me."  And about the same time, "I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there."

Several times over these past few months he has tried very hard to sound like an Average Joe.  “There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was going to get a pink slip,” he said earlier this year to some volunteers.  Or his attempt to feel empathy for a group of unemployed,  "I should tell my story. I'm also unemployed."  Romney is worth more than $200 million.   And the truth surfaced when speaking in Michigan in February, "[My wife] drives a couple of Cadillacs."  Of course, who can forget the $10,000 bet offer to Texas Governor Rick Perry during a Republican debate in December?

Given Romney's difficulty in winning over voters from his own party, the lack of enthusiasm for him among evangelicals, conservatives and members of the Tea Party, his numerous flip-flops, Romneycare, and his propensity to make gaffs, he will need all the help he can get to win over the national electorate.  Help may come if the economy gets worse, gas prices continue to rise or if there is some national security setback for President Obama before the November election.  

More likely, Romney will look to a strong running mate who can fill in the many shortcomings he has as a candidate.   And that person will become the party's frontrunner in 2016 should President Obama win reelection in November.  Even if a twice beaten Mitt Romney decides to make a third run at the White House.

 

Romney: The Politics of Envy

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has all but wrapped up the Republican presidential nomination following a strong victory in the New Hampshire Primary. Meanwhile, there is still a fierce effort by conservative candidates in the party to slow Romney in the South Carolina primary no matter the cost.

But Governor Romney has himself stumbled several times in his quest for the White House. Speaking in New Hampshire the other day, Romney gleefully said, "I like being able to fire people who provide services to me." He was speaking about an insurance company, but his words were most insensitive and played into the "job-killing" narrative being used by his opponents about his time at Bain Capital.

In his Tuesday night acceptance speech, Romney called President Barack Obama, “a leader who divides us with the bitter politics of envy.” Romney was referring to the president's comments about fairness and income inequality, the 1% versus 99% argument. Rather than show any compassion on the subject, Romney defended his "politics of envy" comment on the Today Show Wednesday.

"I think it’s fine to talk about those things in quiet rooms," the former governor said, "But the president has made it part of his campaign rally. Everywhere he goes we hear him talking about millionaires and billionaires and executives and Wall Street. It’s a very envy-oriented, attack-oriented approach and I think it will fail." By "quiet rooms" does Romney mean boardrooms or the clubhouse?

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who could spend $3 million in Romney attack ads in South Carolina, jumped on Romney's "envy" comment. "If anybody asks a question about (Romney's) record, he hides behind an entire framework and to question the facts is to be anti-capitalist. That is nonsense — baloney," Gingrich said. "That is the smoke screen of those who are afraid to be accountable."

Nonetheless, as Romney's opposition is beginning their attacks in the South Carolina campaign, he has a commanding lead in state polls. But unforced errors during unscripted moments, Romneycare, serial flip-flopping on key conservative issues and some actions he took as governor of Massachusetts, are all fodder for his opponents and fuel a lack of passion for Romney among many Republican voters.

Romney is not a people person. Romney does not work crowds well. Romney is not a good extemporaneous speaker. Romney is not an inspiring leader. Rather, he his is a successful business strategist and venture capitalist.

Yes, Romney has masterfully put together his run for the White House by having a well thought out plan, by raising big money and by getting support from many wealthy friends for "Super-PAC" attack ads. But more than 60% of those who have participated in the Republican nominating process so far have not supported Romney. He is not connecting with a majority of Republicans.

This means that Romney's running mate could play a critical role making up for what he doesn't have. But is that person Florida Senator Marco Rubio? Or could it be New Jersey Governor Chris Christie?

Senator Rubio is Cuban-American, which is appealing because Florida is nearly 25% Hispanic and a critical state in the 2012 presidential election. Rubio is popular with the Tea Party, he served nine years in the Florida State Legislature and he is only 40 years old. Rubio survived a controversy around his biography, which said his parents fled Cuba because of Fidel Castro, when they really left before Castro came into power.

But Marco Rubio is the junior senator from his state and he has, at times, shown a lack of command of national issues. Also, a note of caution about the Hispanic vote: it is not monolithic. Cuban-Americans mostly vote Republican, not so other Hispanics. About two-thirds of the 50 million U.S. Hispanics are Mexican and about 4% are Cuban. Yes, Cubans dominate Florida, but Hispanics from Puerto Rico, Mexico and Central America are coming on strong.

There is no more exciting campaigner than Governor Chris Christie, who has been a forceful supporter of Romney. Christie puts the "bully" in bully pulpit. Christie speaks with passion and total confidence. He is fast on his feet for a big man, he is energetic and he doesn't back down from a fight. He remains popular in his home state because he connects with average blue-collar voters. His appeal would also spill over into Pennsylvania. You know, I’m just saying he could make a difference in both states—if you get my drift.

Over the next few weeks Governor Romney will be busy fending off attacks from his right while methodically rolling up convention delegates. But the general election will most likely be decided by how the U.S. economy is doing. That is why President Barack Obama is now out campaigning for his plans to increase jobs. If the unemployment rate continues to decline and the economy continues to grow, President Obama will likely be reelected to a second term.

Then Mitt Romney will find himself sitting in a quiet room stewing in the politics of envy.

Christie's Future

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will spend the weekend considering whether to declare his candidacy for president. Should he enter the GOP race he will have committed one of the biggest flip-flops ever, and many Americans will be asking, "What changed?"

For months the governor has been adamant that he will not run for the White House in 2012. Up to now the governor has repeatedly said on television, "I am not ready to be president." Should he declare his candidacy he will be seeing that soundbite in a lot of campaign commercials.

But now what has changed is the intensity with which supporters and some leading party members are clamoring for him to enter the race. It seems that many Republicans are not happy with their existing field of candidates.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has retaken the top spot in some polls of declared GOP candidates. A recent Fox News poll shows his support at 23%, which is about where it was two months ago. Despite his strong debate performances and tireless campaigning, Romney has not been able to win over most Republicans. It seems that "RomneyCare", his track record of changing positions on key issues and the fact he is a Mormon are all dragging him down among conservative party members.

Following his announcement in August, Texas Governor Rick Perry surged in polls to a commanding lead among Republican candidates. He quickly became the darling of conservatives and Tea Party members. But a series of poor debate performances and increased scrutiny of his record has rocked his campaign and dampened enthusiasm for his candidacy.

Businessman Herman Cain got a bump up to third place in this week's polls following his solid debate performance in Orlando, Florida. But his "9-9-9" plan for the American economy is more of a clever marketing pitch than a realistic solution to this nation's woes. Meanwhile, the rest of the field is mired in single digits and none are likely get their party's nomination.

Republicans believe they can defeat President Barack Obama in 2012, the number one priority of the party since he was elected. Whoever gets the nomination will campaign against the president's economic record, his health care reform act and his inability to end partisan politics in Washington. Their only dilemma is finding the right candidate.

So many key Republicans are pressuring Governor Christie because they believe he can unite the party and win over independent voters. The governor has only been if office two years but he has received a lot of attention because of his straight-talking brash style. Critics call him a bully. The governor has taken on the teachers' unions and he has balanced two budgets after eliminating huge deficits by working with a Democratic majority in the New Jersey legislature.

But is the governor ready for relentless national scrutiny? The unemployment rate in New Jersey is 9.5%, above the national rate, and the state's economy is struggling. The governor has no experience in foreign affairs and few, if any, relationships with international leaders.

Meanwhile, late night comedians are already making fun of the governor's weight. David Letterman reported to his audience, "Critics are saying he doesn't have fire in his belly, that's all he doesn't have in his belly." And political columnists are also raising the weight issue. Take Michael Kinsley, "I'm sorry, but New Jersey Governor Chris Christie cannot be president: He is just too fat." Will Governor Christie's weight be too much of a distraction? Will he be able to conduct a rigorous campaign?

Meanwhile, conservatives are not going to be happy with some of the governor's positions. On gun control the governor has said New Jersey has a "handgun problem" and that he supports some gun-control measures. On immigration he has said that being in the country without proper papers is an "administrative matter," not a crime. When critics howled because the governor appointed a Muslim lawyer to be a New Jersey Superior Court judge, he snapped, "I'm tired of dealing with the crazies."

Running for president is incredibly difficult, and a candidate has to go all out to have a chance of winning. But will Governor Christie be able to run for president and run New Jersey at the same time?

If he chooses to run for president, Governor Christie will have to answer questions regarding his background, his performance in office, his weight and his positions on key issues. Perhaps Governor Christie should carefully reconsider his own words, "I am not ready to be president."

Goodnight Irene

Hurricane Irene pummeled New York City Saturday night and Sunday with nearly twenty-four hours of torrential rains and high winds. The storm left behind severe local flooding, falling trees, and some power outages as surging seas overran beaches, sea walls and piers throughout the region. But the "city that never sleeps" dodged a bullet.

The heavy rain began in the Big Apple at about 8pm Saturday evening. Sheets of water pounded skyscrapers, townhouses and city streets. Rivers of water rushed down avenues to lower ground where it accumulated into ponds, puddles and many basements. The intense downpour obscured the "neon lights on Broadway;" its usually bustling sidewalks were virtually empty. Below the surface New York's famous subway system sat idle, having already been shut down midday Saturday.

Every local television news organization went into "wall-to-wall coverage" as did the cable news channels. Intrepid reporters chanced hurricane force winds, rain and high water to do "live shots" everywhere from Battery Park to the southern tip of New Jersey. Seeing a correspondent leaning into the wind and driving rain while reporting on the local effects of the hurricane has now become a cliché. Perhaps journalism schools should add a course, "Hurricane 101"! Many reporters filed live reports while driving through flooded streets in extra heavy "mobile units" laden with the latest in broadcast technology.

By mid afternoon Sunday the rain had pretty much ended in New York City, but winds at 45 to 50 miles per hour persisted as the backside of the hurricane passed through. City officials tried to close Central Park, but joggers, bikers and hikers ignored warning signs posted at each entrance. Debris filled the walkways, paths and roads, but it did nothing to discourage activities. Neither did Park Rangers who had little luck in diverting traffic out of the park.

The fact is that Hurricane Irene is responsible for at least 18 deaths and billions of dollars in damage throughout the East Coast. Even with all of the scientific tools available to weathermen, hurricanes are difficult to predict with precision. For instance, in 2004 it took just three hours for Hurricane Charley to strengthened from winds of 110 mph to winds of 145 mph. Had Irene had winds of 150 mph, New York City would have been devastated and perhaps hundreds of its citizens would have been killed. So Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Governor Chris Christie did the right thing ordering evacuations from low-lying areas and shutting down mass transit. In short, it is better to be safe than sorry.

Nonetheless, some critics now say predictions were overblown, that the populace was unnecessarily threatened, that media and government officials hyped the storm. The Drudge Report carried a headline that read: "IRENE: A PERFECT STORM OF HYPE..." But many of the same people who now complain would have been the first to scream and howl if the storm had been a monster and the preparations weak. Somehow it seems that politics must enter into everything nowadays.

The full affects of Hurricane Irene have not been yet been felt in some low-lying areas prone to flooding in the Northeast, especially Vermont and Upstate New York. Nonetheless, Hurricane Irene is an important reminder just how powerful and unpredictable Mother Nature can be.