Trump's Collapse

"I alone can fix it," Donald Trump bragged at the Republican National Convention last July with swagger, confidence and certitude.   But Trump has since shown no sign he can even run an effective campaign, and he is now on the verge of an historic defeat.  

Many Americans were ready for a change this election, and all of the polls revealed a nation filled with concern that the country was headed in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton, a flawed candidate dogged by an email controversy and a foreign policy record that has come under continuous scrutiny.  Yet Republicans selected as their nominee a brash man who had no political experience, little knowledge of the key issues, an impulsive nature, and a man who bullies those who stand in his way.   They thought they could control him, shape his campaign, and get him "on message."  They failed.  As a result, Republicans are fighting to retain control of the Senate.

Trump did not properly prepare for any of the three debates he had with Clinton.  Consequently, he could not speak articulately about any of the issues that were discussed.  Clinton won all three debates, and her third debate performance was her best.  She set traps for the thin-skinned Trump, and he took the bait.  At the end of the first debate she mentioned how Trump had mocked a former Miss Universe, Alicia Machado, because she had gained weight.  The result was an overnight Twitter storm from Trump that raised serious questions about his temperament.  

In the second debate, Trump was on the defensive from the very beginning because a videotape had been released of him talking in an inappropriate way about women.  Moderator Anderson Cooper, of CNN, asked Trump, "You described kissing women without consent, grabbing their genitals.  That is sexual assault.  You bragged that you sexually assaulted women.  Do you understand that?"  Trump responded that he was embarrassed by his comments, and scrambled to answer the question.  "No, I didn't say that at all.  I don't think you understood what was--this was locker room talk.  I am not proud of it.  I apologize to my family.  I apologize to the American people."  This incident and the exchange raised serious questions about Trump's character.  

For weeks Trump has been saying that the election will be rigged, and asked that his supporters monitor polling places.  In their final debate, moderator Chris Wallace, of Fox News, asked Trump that, if he loses, would he accept the outcome as is the tradition in presidential elections.  Trump responded, "I will look at it at the time.  I'm not looking at anything now.  I'll look at it at the time."  He then added, "If you look at your voter rolls, you will see millions of people that are registered to vote...millions of people that are registered to vote that shouldn't be registered to vote."   Wallace followed up, "Are you saying you will not commit to that principle?"  Trump replied, "What I am saying is that I will tell you at the time.  I'll keep you in suspense. OK?"   This exchange dominated the news cycle and received criticism from his fellow Republicans.

On Saturday, Trump appeared at a rally in Gettysburg, the site of an historic Civil War battle, and the place President Lincoln delivered his Gettysburg address.  Trump gave his closing argument and outlined what he would do during his first 100 days in office if elected.   But he began by attacking the "dishonest mainstream media" and a rigged election.  He then spoke of the 10 women (now 11) who had come forward to accuse him of unwanted sexual advances.  "Every women lied when they came forward to hurt my campaign -- total fabrication," he said as he gestured from the podium for emphasis.  "The events never happened.  Never.  All of these liars will be sued after the election is over."  Of course, if he actually sues, and if he is elected, a President Trump, will spend an enormous amount of time in depositions, and so will members of his family.  This is another empty threat, but it overshadowed his closing argument.   

No one believes more in Donald Trump than Trump himself.  But his candidacy has roiled and divided the Republican Party, and it has repulsed millions of women, Hispanics, Muslims, and independent voters.  Trump has said he read the bible.  Perhaps he should have carefully considered these words from Luke, "For all those who exalt themselves will be humbled, and those who humble themselves will be exalted."   

Trump: "Why Would I Change?"

Donald Trump declared himself the Republican Party's "presumptive" presidential nominee following his sweeping victory in Tuesday's primaries.   The large margin of Trump's wins not only makes it nearly impossible to stop him from receiving the GOP nomination, but it also serves as notice to Tuesday's other big winner, Democrat Hillary Clinton, that Trump will be a formidable opponent in the November election.

Trump swept every county in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware, while losing only a small handful of counties in Rhode Island and Connecticut.   The demographic break down of Trump's victories is impressive according to exit polls done in three states.   For instance, in Maryland Trump was the first choice for Republican women, men, conservatives, moderates and every income group.  In Connecticut Trump won all income and education groups, including Republican voters with college degrees.  And in Pennsylvania Trump won among Republican voters who described themselves as angry, anti-establishment and against trade deals.

Trump has received nearly 10 million votes since February's Iowa Caucus, millions more votes than each of his remaining opponents, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich.  Trump needs to secure fewer than 300 delegates to reach the 1237 delegates required to win the nomination in the first ballot of the Republican convention.   Cruz has put all his marbles into winning the Indiana primary next Tuesday, including coordinating with Kasich's campaign, but Trump leads in state polls taken before his blowout victories Tuesday.   Trump has promised to campaign hard to win Indiana. 

The fact that Trump has done so well defies conventional wisdom.  His unconventional presidential campaign stands out for its lack of political correctness and detailed policy positions.  But that is what appeals most to his supporters.   His supporters are angry at leaders of both parties for decades of campaign promises unfulfilled, for endless gridlock and mismanagement.  They have seen manufacturing jobs disappear, the nation's infrastructure crumble and growing income inequality.  Many were devastated as a result of the 2008 market crash, the worst since the Great Depression, and are still struggling.   Meanwhile, they fear immigrants in this country illegally will take jobs and the government will take away their rights. 

Enter Donald Trump, who speaks brashly, bluntly and in a voice that resonates with millions of angry Americans.  His campaign slogan, "Make America Great Again," speaks to a large faction of Republicans and independents who have had it with politics.  It doesn't matter to them that Trump insults Mexicans as rapists, women, Muslims, as well as his opponents and some world leaders.  It doesn't matter that he has flip-flopped on social issues, or that he doesn't seem to have a firm grasp of foreign policy.  His supporters don't care because he will be different than politics as usual, they really believe in outsider Donald Trump, they trust him. 

Yet, according to recent polls, more that 60 per cent of Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump, a number that would be insurmountable for any other candidate in the general election.   He does a bit better among Republicans, even though his negatives are high, much to the chagrin of the GOP establishment, which has been trying to write him off for months.  Last December, conservative writer Bill Kristol Tweeted, "Sticking to my prediction: Trump will win no caucuses or primaries, and will run behind Ron Paul in 2012 in IA and NH." 

Fresh from her victories in 4 of 5 states Tuesday, Hillary Clinton is reaching out to Sanders' supporters and beginning to focus her rhetoric on the national election campaign.  Many Clinton supporters believe that she will easily beat Trump in the presidential election next November.  But not so fast Democrats.  Trump already is shrewdly trying to get Senator Bernie Sanders to run as an independent in order to divide the Democratic vote. 

Clinton, an experienced but flawed candidate, is about to undergo months of relentless and scathing assaults.  Trump will attack her apparent strengths as failures, including her government experience, foreign policy service, leadership on women's issues and support among minorities.  He will attack President Bill Clinton's character, and mock the Clinton's mercilessly.  Trump will insult and bully Hillary Clinton in speeches and political ads in an effort to discourage Democrats and independents from voting for her election day.  Hillary Clinton is going to be in for the fight of her life. 

While it seemed unimaginable nearly a year ago, when he made his campaign announcement,  that Donald Trump could win his party's nomination, it is now possible that Trump could actually win the presidency this November to become the nation's insulter-in-chief.  Unpredictable, undisciplined and unscripted, Trump is dangerous.  After all, as Trump said in his victory speech Tuesday night, "I am me.  Why would I change?"

The Donald Speaks!

Billionaire businessman Donald Trump has sucked the oxygen out of the Republican Party by dominating media coverage since he announced his presidential candidacy last month.   As a result of his brash and often outrageous statements he has soared in the polls to the top of a crowded field of candidates.  Meanwhile, Trump's theatrics have exposed the weaknesses in the Republican Party.

Trump strongly appeals to a core group of Republican voters who are anti-immigrant and anti-Washington.   His comments last month about Mexicans resonated with this group.  “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”   

Never mind that this statement is not true, it is what some Republicans strongly believe.  In fact, the Republican Party has long struggled with the immigration issue.  Following their loss in the 2012 Presidential Election, the party released an autopsy report with its analysis of what went wrong.  It noted that candidate Mitt Romney received only 27 percent of the Hispanic vote and recommended increasing the party's appeal to Latinos.  GOP party chairman Reince Priebus said at the time, "The question is: instead of getting 27 percent of the Hispanic vote, can I get 35?"  

Yet, knowing the increasing numbers of Hispanics in the American electorate, most of the announced Republican candidates failed to aggressively challenge Trump's ridiculous comments about Mexicans.  Now the party is on the defensive about immigration reform.  The 2013 Republican autopsy report concluded that the party "must embrace and champion immigration reform."  It warned,  “If we do not, our party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.”

When it comes to other important issues facing America Trump speaks as a man who is never in doubt, although he is frequently wrong.  For instance, he has claimed he has a plan to defeat the terrorist group ISIS, which now controls oil fields in Iraq.  "I would bomb the hell out of those oil fields," he told CNN earlier this month, "I wouldn't send many troops because you wouldn't need them by the time I got finished."  Many military experts agree destroying the oil fields would do little to slow ISIS, but it would damage Iraq's future source of revenue.  But this kind of muscular, shoot from the hip approach to foreign policy appeals to a segment of the Republican base.

Trump claims he will put unemployed Americans back to work, explaining,
"They can’t get jobs, because there are no jobs, because China has our jobs and Mexico has our jobs."  He claims that he will be a tough negotiator with China, and he blames the fact that Trump branded shirts and ties are manufactured in China on the Chinese!  “Quite frankly, I was never satisfied with manufacturing my product in China, but because of what they’ve done in terms of devaluing their currency, it is very hard for other companies to compete and make such apparel in the United States."  If he was never satisfied with making apparel in China, why did he do it?  

Trump has joined the chorus of Republicans who attack Democrat frontrunner Hillary Clinton.  In an interview this week with NBC News, he said, “Hillary Clinton was the worst secretary of state in the history of the United States.”  He continued, “There’s never been a secretary of state so bad as Hillary. The world blew up around us, we lost everything, including all relationships. There wasn’t one good thing that came out of that administration or her being secretary of state.”  He concluded, "I think she would be a terrible president." 

While most Republicans agree with Trump, they may be surprised to hear that he praised her in a 2012 interview with Fox News.  "Hillary Clinton I think is a terrific woman...I think she really works hard and I think she does a good job."  In fact, Hillary and Bill Clinton had a front row seat at Trump's 2005 wedding to supermodel Melania Knauss.  

Trump is attracting support among many Republicans because he has a well-known name and he is saying things many party members feel.  He will no doubt be formidable in the upcoming debates.  But his ad hominem attacks, his insults, his bombast and attacking tirades are only hurting a Republican Party that is deeply divided and struggling to find its way to the White House. 

Christie for President

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the latest Republican to announce he is running for president.  He joins an already overcrowded field of candidates seeking their party's nomination.  But Christie stands out because an overwhelming majority of his own state's registered voters disapproves of his performance in office. 

His announcement speech, which will take place Tuesday at his former high school, will be given without the aid of a teleprompter.  It will reflect his campaign theme, "Telling it like it is," and be targeted to Republican voters in New Hampshire, where he will go next to begin campaigning.  He will highlight his middle-class upbringing, his family values, and his willingness to make tough decisions on entitlements and government spending.

But many Republicans have not forgotten Christie's post Hurricane Sandy walking tour in 2012 with then candidate President Barack Obama, which came in his closely contested state at the expense of GOP candidate Mitt Romney.  Teachers in the state have not forgotten his harsh attacks on educators and college administrators in his effort to reform the education system.  Public sector unions have not forgotten that the governor has run roughshod over their pensions.  And commuters have not forgotten that it was Christie's appointees who shut down lanes of the George Washington Bridge, aka Bridgegate, as political retribution against those who did not support the governor's reelection.

In his announcement Christie is expected to point to his governance of a blue state as an example of how he can work with both sides of the political aisle.  But state Democrats would argue differently.  Christie will say he can make the tough decisions, but many of his opponents will criticize his tough tactics.

Christie's brash and in-your-face style will win him supporters among Republican voters seeking a candidate who seemingly has strong leadership skills.  He will stand out among the field of announced Republican candidates, and will likely do well in the upcoming party debates.  

But this self-described pragmatic conservative Republican is thought by many in the party to be too moderate to win the nomination.  While he has raised a lot of money as the Chairman of the Republican Governor's Association, more than $100 million, some of his political positions are not in sync with the Republican base, including immigration and gun control.  

Governor Christie was reelected to a second term in 2013 with 60.3 percent of the vote, which was driven largely by his leadership in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.  Because he is term limited he will not be able to run for governor again in 2017.  But even if he were eligible then it is unlikely that New Jersey voters, who have soured on his act, would reelect him.  So for him a run for the presidency is his next best option to be elected to public office.  

The fact is Christie has nothing to lose and everything to gain by pursuing the White House.   He has said, "I think what the American people want more than anything else right now is someone who's just going to look them in the eye and tell them the truth, even some truths that they don't like."  But the reality is do enough Republicans trust Christie enough to nominate him as their standard bearer in 2016?

Senator Paul on the Attack

Hillary Rodham Clinton is the overwhelming front-runner to be her party's standard-bearer in the 2016 Presidential Election, and the Republicans know it.  Even though she has not announced her intentions, Republicans are already taking political shots at her.  But their personal attacks are shrill and feeble, and reveal a party without a vision for the country.

A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead among likely Democratic presidential candidates.  The former First Lady has been in the national spotlight for more than two decades.  In that time she has been a formidable political presence on the national stage, and has displayed tremendous energy and resilience.  Secretary Clinton enjoys great affection and respect from her loyalists, and endures immense disdain from her detractors.   While she is a polarizing figure, her overall personal favorability ratings are very high.  And her great political skills will make her a strong presidential candidate, should she decide to run.

Republicans fear a Clinton candidacy, in part because they do not have a clear front-runner for their party's nomination.  And nearly half the Americans polled in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party.  Nonetheless, potential GOP candidates are already jockeying for position in the nomination race.

None has been more outspoken than Tea Party favorite Senator Rand Paul (R-KY).  And Senator Rand Paul has focused his most recent attacks on Secretary Clinton.  Paul pushed back on the charges that Republicans are engaged in a "war on women." "The Democrats can't say, 'We're the great defenders of women's rights in the workplace'...when the leader of their party, the leading fundraiser in the country, is Bill Clinton, who was a perpetrator of that kind of sexual harassment," Paul told C-Span, referring to the Monica Lewinsky affair.  He continued, "Someone who takes advantage of a young girl in their office?  I mean, really.  And then have the gall to stand up and say, 'Republicans are having a war on women?'"  He concluded, "Now, that's not Hillary's fault...but it is a factor in judging Bill Clinton is history."

Senator Paul's comments got a lot of attention, no doubt as he had hoped.  It was clearly an effort to dredge up old headlines about the Clinton-era dramas in the White House.   His attack received support from GOP party boss Reince Priebus, who told MSNBC that "everything is on the table."  Priebus explained, "I think we're going to have a truckload of opposition research on Hillary Clinton, and some things may be old, and some things may be new.  But I think everything is at stake when you're talking about the leader of the free world."

Priebus is the man who commissioned an autopsy of the Republican failure to win the White House in 2012.  In announcing the results last year, he said, "The way we communicate our principles isn't resonating widely enough...focus groups described our party as 'narrow-minded,' 'out of touch,' and 'stuffy old men.'"  Well, Mr. Priebus?

But not all Republicans think that Senator Paul's approach is the way to win the White House.  Republican strategist Karl Rove told Fox News, "This can't be 'I want to run for president'-It's got to be about something bigger than that, and frankly Rand Paul spending a lot of time talking about the mistakes of Bill Clinton does not look like a big agenda for the country."  He added, "I'm not certain again that beating up on Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky is a particularly good thing to strengthen your skills for the 2016 contest."

Former Republican congressman and current MSNBC television host Joe Scarborough told his audience he'd “never bring that stuff up in a gazillion years.”  But he did pivot, saying that if Secretary Clinton attacks Republicans as anti-women it's fair game.  “Does this not compromise Hillary Clinton’s ability to bash Republicans as being terrible towards women," he said.

Perhaps that is the ultimate Republican strategy.  But it risks energizing Clinton supporters, alienating independent and women voters, and reinforcing the negative perceptions of the party as "out of touch."