Carpet Bombing

Florida will be a critical battleground in the 2012 presidential election. So Republicans better hope that Florida voters forget all of the nasty things their candidates have said about each other in advance of this Tuesday's primary.

For several days former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney attacked former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a man lacking in temperament, discipline and ethics during his time in Congress. Gingrich had been leading in state polls immediately following his victory in the South Carolina primary. But Romney and the pro-Romney super-PAC "Restore Our Future" have spent $6.8 million in television ads harshly critical of Gingrich.

As a result, Gingrich has fallen behind Romney in the latest Miami Herald poll released today. According to that poll Romney now has a 42% to 31% lead over Gingrich among Republicans going into Tuesday's state primary. Gingrich's poor performances in last week's two Florida debates, along with the tough Romney ads, have had a devastating impact on his campaign.

But Gingrich is a fighter. He told Fox News Sunday that Romney "has a basic policy of carpet bombing his opponents." Gingrich added, "He doesn't try to build up Mitt Romney, he just tries to tear down whoever he's running against." And in an interview on CBS's Face the Nation, Gingrich accused Romney of making false statements. "I think there's a very high likelihood we're going to win Florida because I think when people understand how many different times... he said things that weren't true, his credibility is going to just, frankly, collapse," Gingrich said.

Gingrich has zeroed in on Romney's credibility as his best chance for turning the tide in the primary's eleventh hour. On Face the Nation he defended his poor performance in the last debate. "I'm standing there controlling myself because I didn't want to get into a running fight at that moment when I knew what he was saying was so false when the better way to handle it is to get the data, lay it out, let people make the judgment on their own. I mean the election wasn't going to be the next morning."

Gingrich says he is going to take his fight all the way to the Republican convention where he predicts Romney will be challenged trying to get a majority of the delegates at the convention. "The Republican party will not nominate a pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-tax increase moderate from Massachusetts," Gingrich said Sunday.

Meanwhile, Romney has refocused most of his recent attacks in Florida on President Barack Obama and left it to his supporters to continue the attacks on Gingrich. Two million Florida Republicans may vote in the state's primary on Tuesday. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and Representative Ron Paul trail the two leaders in the most recent Miami Herald poll.

Will all of the personal attacks the Republican candidates have made against each other have an impact in November's presidential election? Republican National Committee chair Reince Priebus said on Face the Nation, "In the end, in a few months, this is all going to be ancient history and we're going to talk about our own little Captain Schettino, which is President Obama who is abandoning the ship here in the United States." But it is the many Republican personal attacks on President Obama that have helped divide the country since he took office.

President Obama carried Florida by a slim margin of 2.8% in 2008. While that state is still feeling the impact of the 2008 recession economic conditions there are slowly getting better. And now President Obama's campaign will have plenty of soundbites to use in its political commercials this fall, perhaps ending with the words, "I'm Barack Obama and I couldn't have said it any better!"

Here Comes Newt

On the eve of the South Carolina primary the Republican race has been turned on its head by two developments that may have a profound impact on the campaign. The question now is can frontrunner Mitt Romney beat off the surging Newt Gingrich to win his party's nomination?

Texas Governor Rick Perry withdrew from the presidential race because he was not getting any traction with South Carolina voters and he didn't want to help split the conservative vote and hand Romney a sizable win Saturday. Instead, he threw his support to Gingrich saying, "I believe Newt is a conservative visionary who can transform our country."

Perry acknowledged that he and Gingrich have "had our differences," but he went on to say, "I have no question that Newt has the heart of a conservative... with the ability to rally and captivate the conservative movement." This was a clear message to voters that he believes Romney is not a true conservative.

Gingrich's record as Speaker of the House has been under assault by negative Super PAC ads in support of Romney. And questions have been raised about Gingrich's personal life, including a claim by his second wife the he asked for an "open marriage." Perry seemed to address these criticisms in his remarks. "Newt is not perfect, but who among us is," Perry said. "There is forgiveness for those who seek God, and I believe in the power of redemption for it is a central tenant of my Christian faith."

Propelled by his recent debate performance, Gingrich has been closing the gap in recent polls taken among South Carolina voters. On the other hand, Romney has been seeing his lead erode over the past few days. To make matters worse for the former Massachusetts Governor, on Thursday the Iowa Republican Party revised their final caucus totals giving Rick Santorum a 34 vote lead over Romney. No longer can Romney claim he won an unprecedented victory in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Game on!

Gingrich wasted no time in embracing Perry's endorsement and in enlisting Perry to lead a "10th Amendment Enforcement Project" that, if successful, would ultimately restore more power to the states while curtailing the role of the federal government. The 10th Amendment says that, "Powers not granted to the federal government nor prohibited to the States by the Constitution are reserved to the States." This is a key issue for many conservatives who may see this as bold and imaginative leadership. But taking power away from the federal government and giving it back to the states is a most controversial and complex issue.

While Gingrich and Santorum both received a big boost to their campaigns on Thursday, Romney has suffered largely self-inflicted wounds over the past few weeks. For example, he fumbled his handling of when and if he will release his tax returns. Under immense pressure he finally admitted on Wednesday that his income tax rate was about 15%, or the rate paid on capital gains that is largely the source of his income from his Bain Capital investments. But are any of those investments parked offshore?

Romney supporters, such as New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, have urged the former Massachusetts Governor to release his tax returns as soon as possible. But the always-opportunistic Newt Gingrich seized the moment by releasing his tax returns on Thursday.

Republican voters in South Carolina now find themselves with a horse race. Will Romney be able to hold on? Will Gingrich be able to rally enough support to pull out a victory? Will Santorum be helped by is narrow victory in Iowa? Will Representative Ron Paul be able to capitalize on the chaos?

There is no question that Romney is now feeling intense pressure and he is on the defensive. In a heated exchange with a protestor on Thursday in South Carolina he called for unity and emphatically denounced those who were dividing the nation. Perhaps he should take a closer look at himself.

Romney: The Politics of Envy

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has all but wrapped up the Republican presidential nomination following a strong victory in the New Hampshire Primary. Meanwhile, there is still a fierce effort by conservative candidates in the party to slow Romney in the South Carolina primary no matter the cost.

But Governor Romney has himself stumbled several times in his quest for the White House. Speaking in New Hampshire the other day, Romney gleefully said, "I like being able to fire people who provide services to me." He was speaking about an insurance company, but his words were most insensitive and played into the "job-killing" narrative being used by his opponents about his time at Bain Capital.

In his Tuesday night acceptance speech, Romney called President Barack Obama, “a leader who divides us with the bitter politics of envy.” Romney was referring to the president's comments about fairness and income inequality, the 1% versus 99% argument. Rather than show any compassion on the subject, Romney defended his "politics of envy" comment on the Today Show Wednesday.

"I think it’s fine to talk about those things in quiet rooms," the former governor said, "But the president has made it part of his campaign rally. Everywhere he goes we hear him talking about millionaires and billionaires and executives and Wall Street. It’s a very envy-oriented, attack-oriented approach and I think it will fail." By "quiet rooms" does Romney mean boardrooms or the clubhouse?

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who could spend $3 million in Romney attack ads in South Carolina, jumped on Romney's "envy" comment. "If anybody asks a question about (Romney's) record, he hides behind an entire framework and to question the facts is to be anti-capitalist. That is nonsense — baloney," Gingrich said. "That is the smoke screen of those who are afraid to be accountable."

Nonetheless, as Romney's opposition is beginning their attacks in the South Carolina campaign, he has a commanding lead in state polls. But unforced errors during unscripted moments, Romneycare, serial flip-flopping on key conservative issues and some actions he took as governor of Massachusetts, are all fodder for his opponents and fuel a lack of passion for Romney among many Republican voters.

Romney is not a people person. Romney does not work crowds well. Romney is not a good extemporaneous speaker. Romney is not an inspiring leader. Rather, he his is a successful business strategist and venture capitalist.

Yes, Romney has masterfully put together his run for the White House by having a well thought out plan, by raising big money and by getting support from many wealthy friends for "Super-PAC" attack ads. But more than 60% of those who have participated in the Republican nominating process so far have not supported Romney. He is not connecting with a majority of Republicans.

This means that Romney's running mate could play a critical role making up for what he doesn't have. But is that person Florida Senator Marco Rubio? Or could it be New Jersey Governor Chris Christie?

Senator Rubio is Cuban-American, which is appealing because Florida is nearly 25% Hispanic and a critical state in the 2012 presidential election. Rubio is popular with the Tea Party, he served nine years in the Florida State Legislature and he is only 40 years old. Rubio survived a controversy around his biography, which said his parents fled Cuba because of Fidel Castro, when they really left before Castro came into power.

But Marco Rubio is the junior senator from his state and he has, at times, shown a lack of command of national issues. Also, a note of caution about the Hispanic vote: it is not monolithic. Cuban-Americans mostly vote Republican, not so other Hispanics. About two-thirds of the 50 million U.S. Hispanics are Mexican and about 4% are Cuban. Yes, Cubans dominate Florida, but Hispanics from Puerto Rico, Mexico and Central America are coming on strong.

There is no more exciting campaigner than Governor Chris Christie, who has been a forceful supporter of Romney. Christie puts the "bully" in bully pulpit. Christie speaks with passion and total confidence. He is fast on his feet for a big man, he is energetic and he doesn't back down from a fight. He remains popular in his home state because he connects with average blue-collar voters. His appeal would also spill over into Pennsylvania. You know, I’m just saying he could make a difference in both states—if you get my drift.

Over the next few weeks Governor Romney will be busy fending off attacks from his right while methodically rolling up convention delegates. But the general election will most likely be decided by how the U.S. economy is doing. That is why President Barack Obama is now out campaigning for his plans to increase jobs. If the unemployment rate continues to decline and the economy continues to grow, President Obama will likely be reelected to a second term.

Then Mitt Romney will find himself sitting in a quiet room stewing in the politics of envy.

LSU Memories

I attended Louisiana State University in the mid 60's, following in my dad's footsteps. He attended for a year just before World War II, but after he and his brother Leo worked on the construction of the Huey P. Long Bridge in New Orleans. While my dad was born in New Orleans, the first Peyronnin settled in Baton Rouge back in the early 1800's. Jacques (Jacob) Peyronnin had come over from Bordeaux, France.

Although I was raised in Chicago, I had visited New Orleans many times in my childhood. I applied to LSU at my father's suggestion and entered in 1965. Baton Rouge was a far different place than Chicago's northern suburbs.

The LSU campus is beautiful. The Olmsted Brothers Firm of Brookline, Massachusetts, created the original design for the campus in 1921. It is admired for the 1,200 live oak trees that shade the grounds of the university and are filled with Spanish moss. The grounds also include azaleas, crepe myrtles, ligustrum, and camellias. Fifty-seven buildings on the LSU campus are listed on the National Register of Historic Places.
I began working at the campus radio station in 1966 which was located in the student union. "WLSU, Baton Rouge, Louisiana!", I would announce frequently as a disc jockey while spinning those platters. Sam and Dave, Otis Redding, The Beatles, The Rolling Stones, Sly and the Family Stone and James Brown were all popular. I was hooked.

I lived on campus in the North Stadium dormitory. I had a room on the fourth floor of Tiger Stadium. The rooms were spartan but pleasant. It was an all-male dorm with shared shower and bathroom facilities. I could look west out my window and watch the barges and riverboats slowly passing by on the Mississippi River. There was no air conditioning, so it was hot and steamy much of the year.

Mike the tiger lived in a cage about 100 yards to the northwest of my room. The frequent northwest breezes meant that the pungent odor of tiger poop wafted into my room. Thankfully Mike was the quiet type, only occasionally roaring when he was hungry. Mike was brought into Tiger Stadium for home football games locked in a portable trailer cage. The fans loved him.

My favorite Mike story was the time James Carville, former Clinton aide and LSU alum, stole the trailer cage one night in a memorable prank. They drove through neighborhoods screaming, "You’ all seen Mike the tiger?!?" What a hoot.

My roommate was from New Iberia, Louisiana, deep in Cajun Country. He took me to his hometown several weekends. I remember stopping at bars and restaurants where mostly French was spoken, Cajun style. One year I attended Marti Gras in Lafayette, Louisiana, which, although smaller than New Orleans' celebration, was still colorful and passionate. I ate a lot of crabs, crawfish and seafood gumbo and drank plenty of Dixie and Jax beer!

I learned a few phrases unique to the area. "How's yer mom and dem?" "Where you at?" "Who dat?" And my favorite cheer is, ""Hot boudin, cold coush coush, come on Tigers, poosh, poosh, poosh!"

LSU had more than 20,000 students in those days, but only a few hundred were Black. LSU, like many other southern state schools, had only recently opened up enrollment up to minorities. I shared my dormitory with several of them, and I found out that most had come from throughout the state in hopes of bettering their lives. Many were athletes, and the best of them got to live in a top tier dorm.

The football team had a winning record under Coach Charlie "Cholly Mac" McClendon. Cholly Mac had succeeded "Pepsodent" Paul Deitzel, who won a national championship in 1958 with the help of his tough defensive squad known as the "Chinese bandits." But news was being made on the basketball court where "Pistol" Pete Maravich was setting college basketball scoring records. He was simply amazing and went on to be a great pro.

I can't say LSU was a great educational experience for me. In fact, I spent most of my time at WLSU radio instead of studying in the library. But LSU was a tremendous learning experience for me. The times were a'changing with the speed of a coal barge drifting slowly down the
mighty Mississippi River to New Orleans. There, decades later, the "Honey Badger" will take the field with the "Fighting Tigers" one win away from being the greatest college football team ever.

Thank you dad! And “Geaux Tigers!”

Game On

Tuesday's Iowa caucuses resulted in a slim eight-vote victory for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, as well as an important win for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who finished second. Now, as the GOP candidates pivot to next week's New Hampshire primary, the war of words has already intensified.

Iowa claimed the campaign's first victim as Representative Michele Bachmann dropped out of the race following her poor performance. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich finished a disappointing fourth in Iowa after being bombarded over the airwaves by negative ads sponsored by supporters of Romney and Representative Ron Paul. He said he was “stunned by the volume of negative ads” and accused Romney of being untruthful.

Gingrich wasted no time aiming verbal shots at Romney, and a wounded Gingrich could be very dangerous for the former governor. "He's a Massachusetts moderate who will be pretty good at managing the decay of the country but will not change the culture," Gingrich told his followers Tuesday night. Then on Wednesday, after arriving in New Hampshire, Gingrich accused Romney of raising taxes in Massachusetts when he was governor, creating Romneycare, accommodating taxpayer funded abortions, funding Planned Parenthood and appointing liberal judges.

Romney has enjoyed a comfortable lead up to now in polls of New Hampshire Republicans, but Santorum's momentum and Gingrich's attacks could hurt him. Santorum, a Catholic, may be especially appealing to the large Catholic population in the Granite State. His family values message and very personal campaign style may resonate with undecided voters. A recent New Hampshire poll showed Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman a distant second and third to Romney, but it also showed that Santorum was already gaining some support.

Romney built a firewall in New Hampshire, where he owns a residence, and a win there, along with his tight victory in Iowa, would make him the first person not already serving as president to win both. But a strong showing by Santorum would further energize his campaign as the candidates move to the South Carolina and Florida primaries.

The South Carolina primary takes place on January 21. Texas Governor Rick Perry was so disappointed in his Iowa performance that Tuesday night he said he would reassess his campaign. But on Wednesday he announced he was heading to South Carolina to resume his campaign. Santorum could be the beneficiary of Bachmann's withdrawal and Perry's wavering commitment in South Carolina. Meanwhile Romney has been polling in the low 20's and Gingrich has been hurt by negative ads.

The Florida primary, on January 31, may turn out to be a critical showdown. A poll in mid December showed Romney (27%) and Gingrich (26%) to be leading. But things are very fluid. Some candidates have begun airing ads in the Sunshine State and 370,000 Republican voters have taken out absentee ballots.

So the heated battle for the Republican nomination will continue for several more weeks. The party is divided between traditional center-right Republicans and the Tea Party and Christian right factions. They are fighting over the future direction of the party. It is unclear whether conservative Santorum's strong showing in Iowa will be enough to propel him into a commanding lead. But many conservatives note that three-quarters of Iowa caucus goers did not vote for Romney, the party's presumed frontrunner and leading flip-flopper.

Meanwhile, Gingrich told MSNBC, "By the time [Romney] gets to South Carolina and Florida it will be obvious, this is not a conservative Republican. He is not going to win the nomination and he is not the most electable candidate."

As Santorum says, "Game on!"

2012

As we begin a new year we are again filled with hope for a bright future. But if the past year is precedent our hopes will be burdened with too many uncertainties.

2011 will perhaps be best remembered as the year of the Arab Spring. Following a month of violent protests, the Tunisian government collapsed on January 14 when President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia after twenty-three years in power. His people had risen up against high unemployment and inflation, corruption and a lack of freedoms in Tunisia.

The protests were triggered by the actions of a twenty-six year old vegetable cart operator named Mohamed Bouazizi, who doused himself with a flammable liquid and set himself on fire to protest the local government. Public support for Bouazizi grew as protests spread with the help of YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. Bouazizi died from burns in early January, about ten days before the government fell. But Bouazizi's act opened the door for millions of Arabs throughout the region.

Demonstrators took over Cairo's Tahrir Square, at times as many as a million Egyptians protested their repressive government and demanded President Hosni Mubarak's resignation. The long-time American ally and friend to Israel resigned on February 11, leaving the Egyptian military in control until a new leader is elected.

Bahrain and Syria have also dealt with protests. But the Syrian Government has resorted to extreme violence against its own people leaving thousands dead and the country's future unclear.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to roil the world stage with its meddlesome acts throughout the Middle East and its threats against Israel and the West. The Iranian government continues to develop a nuclear weapons program despite painful sanctions that have been imposed by many Western nations. War clouds darken the landscape as the Revolutionary Guard represses its own people.

The U.S. military has withdrawn from Iraq leaving that country deeply divided as it struggles for a democratic future. Iran is doing all it can to destabilize progress in that country by influencing Iraq's Shiite Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who is accused by minority Sunnis of using security forces to consolidate his power. 4,063 Iraqi civilians were killed in 2011, a slight increase over the previous year. Turmoil and tumult abound in Iraq nine years after America freed the country from the tyrannical regime of Saddam Hussein.

As the U.S. continues its war in Afghanistan al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban fighters have reached out to Pakistani militants in an effort to set aside their differences to take on the U.S. led forces in Afghanistan. Meetings have been held in Pakistan's tribal region and an alliance may not bode well for Americans as they accelerate their withdrawal from Afghanistan. This as U.S.-Pakistani relations are at an all time low.

There is much on the world stage to be weary of, not the least of which is Europe's difficult economic problems and the rising influence of China. All these factors are having a great impact on America, which itself is struggling to regain its economic footing following the 2008 recession.

So the U.S. elections in November are critical. Yet Republican presidential candidates have decimated each other in an effort to curry favor from the Tea Party and Conservative Christian factions of their party. Their campaigns have reflected the divisiveness that has paralyzed Washington and Congress. They have done little to show a majority of Americans that they can unite the country at such an important time.

Meanwhile President Barack Obama, the persistent president, is now in full campaign mode. His policies are leading to slow but steady economic recovery. More and more people are being hired. His historic health care reform measures are beginning to have a positive impact on Americans. The U.S. auto industry is again vibrant thanks to his intervention.

President Obama has a credible foreign policy and he has kept the country safe from terrorist attacks. He has destroyed the leadership of al-Qaeda, including Osama bin Laden, and helped to oust Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi. He has kept his campaign promises by ending the war in Iraq and focusing his efforts on Afghanistan. Yet huge federal deficits loom as far as the eye can see, entitlement programs lack true reform, the housing market remains weak and consumer demand is still tepid.

Come November Americans will have a choice: staying the course or voting for change. The question voters will face is, "Will the alternative be change we can truly believe in?"

Ebenezer Boehner

"Bah! Humbug!" might as well have been the words of House Speaker John Boehner, who may seem like Ebenezer Scrooge to millions of Americans now facing a year-end payroll tax increase.

On Tuesday the Republican controlled House of Representatives rejected a Senate approved bill that would have extended payroll tax cuts for two months and allowed the unemployed to continue receiving jobless benefits. The House instead voted 229 to 193 to establish a negotiating committee so the two chambers can resolve their differences. But the Senate, having Saturday passed the payroll tax extension measure 89-to-10, is in recess until after the holidays and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said he would not call them back.

If the payroll tax cuts are not extended salaries will be taxed an additional 2%, or about $1,000 per year for the average American. The Senate bill would extend the payroll tax cuts for two months and it would also prevent a large drop in fees paid to doctors who accept Medicare. It appears that House Speaker Boehner refused to bring the Senate bill directly to the floor for an up or down vote because it would have passed with the necessary Republican support.

Many Republicans who face difficult reelection campaigns were critical of their own leadership. Among them Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who issued a statement after the vote that House Republicans, "would rather continue playing politics than find solutions." He added, "Their actions will hurt American families and be detrimental to our fragile economy."

The devil is in the details of the debate. Most members of Congress agree that the payroll tax cut should be extended for another year. But Republicans and Democrats, including the president, disagree on how to make up for the $150 billion shortfall to Social Security. The president proposed raising the taxes of the wealthiest Americans by about 3%. Republicans objected to any tax increase instead offering cuts in social programs. The president agreed to drop his tax proposal.

Meanwhile the Senate went ahead and passed a two-month extension to buy time for further negotiations over funding. It passed the Senate by a 9 to 1 margin, including a majority of its Republican members. The two-month extension would cost about $33 billion which would be funded by an increase in the fees that new homeowners with federally backed mortgages would pay to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration. The Congressional Budget Office reports the bill would reduce the deficit by $3 billion.

But House Republicans, primarily Tea-Partiers, oppose the Senate bill because they are said to be concerned with the uncertainty caused by just a two-month extension, as well as the political benefit the White House could gain in the national dialogue over taxes. It appears that they forced Speaker Boehner to take a hard line on the measure. The Speaker sent a letter to President Obama, which said, "I ask you to call on the Senate to return to appoint negotiators so that we can provide the American people the economic certainty they need."

Speaker Boehner changed positions on the Senate bill, after earlier indicating in a party conference call he would support the Senate compromise. To many it appeared that Majority Leader and aspiring Speaker Eric Cantor pressured Boehner to change his position. However, Boehner said he only praised a provision in the Senate bill requiring presidential action on the Keystone pipeline.

So as Christmas approaches, millions of Americans face a tax increase because Republicans want to defeat President Obama more than they want to help the middle class. And when they want to know how the Grinch stole Christmas, they can ask Ebenezer Boehner. Bah Humbug!