Biff Trump

Businessman Donald Trump is the Republican Party's presumptive nominee for president,  but can he unite the party?  Now that Texas Senator Ted Cruz has suspended his campaign, can he endorse the man he called a "pathological liar" and "utterly amoral"?  Now that Governor Kasich is suspending his campaign, will the party come together and enthusiastically support its standard-barer?  

In his victory speech Tuesday night, Trump had nothing but praise for the man he only hours earlier called "lying" Ted Cruz.  "He is one tough competitor," Trump said.  "He is a smart tough guy."  But Cruz did not mention Trump's name in his concession speech.  Instead, he positioned himself as the leader of the conservative movement.  "I am not suspending our fight to defend the Constitution, to defend the Judea-Christian values that built America," he said.  "Our efforts will continue and I give you my word that I will continue this fight with all of my strength and all of my ability."

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Preibus is going to have an enormous challenge bringing his party together.  Right after Trump was declared the winner in Indiana Tuesday evening, Preibus tweeted, "@realDonaldTrump will be presumptive @GOP nominee, we all need to unite and focus on defeating @HillaryClinton."  However, the burden of uniting the GOP will fall heaviest on Trump, who told NBC's Today, "I am confident that I can unite much of it."  But he added, "Honestly, there are some people I really don't want.  I don't think it's necessary.  People would be voting for me, they're not voting for the party."

Fortunately for Trump, this is politics, so even his harshest critics within the party will unashamedly put principle aside and endorse him if they believe it helps them in some way.  Who better than the author of The Art of the Deal  to win people over.  But Trump's no holds barred campaign has burned a lot of bridges with large segments of the general population.

For instance, Trump will have to negotiate with Latinos, many of whom he has alienated with his constant attacks on Mexico.  "When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best," he said in his presidential campaign announcement last June.  "They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us.  They're bringing drugs.  They're bringing crime.  They're rapists.  And some, I assume, are good people," he added.  

Latino groups project at least 13.1 million Hispanics will vote this election compared to about 10 million in 2008.  A record 27.3 million Latinos will be eligible to vote, up from 19.5 million eight years ago.  In a recent national poll of Hispanics conducted by Latino Decisions, 79% of the respondents had a very unfavorable opinion of Trump.   This result is ominous because Republican Mitt Romney received only 27% of the Latino vote in his huge loss to President Barack Obama in 2012.  It is hard to believe that Trump could do as well this November as Romney did four years ago.  And Trump will never reach the 37% mark that President George W. Bush received in his contested victory in 2000.   

Women do not like Trump.  According to a Gallup poll released last month Trump had a 70% unfavorable rating with women as compared to a 23% favorable rating.  Trump has made numerous comments that have outraged women.  Of then opponent Carly Fiorina, Trump said, "Look at that face.  Would anyone vote for that?"  Trump also called for women to be punished for getting abortions in an interview with MSNBC in March, but reversed his position after the firestorm he created.  Overall, Trump is going to have to deal with this problem because considerably more women vote in national elections than do men.   And winning only the white male blue-collar vote is not enough to win the presidency.  

In his Trump tirade Tuesday, Senator Cruz pointed out that the Back to the Future character, Biff Tannen, was based on Trump, a "caricature of a braggadocious, arrogant buffoon."   He concluded, "We are looking, potentially, at the Biff Tannen presidency."

You can never count anyone out, least of all Donald Trump.  And November is a long way off, so anything can happen.  However, if the campaign is limited to debates over woman's issues, foreign policy and actual experience with Congress and the executive branch, likely Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton will have the advantage.  

But Trump is unpredictable and unconventional.  And the battlefield is littered with candidates who thought they could beat him.  Guess Donald Trump is no buffoon.   

Trumpmare Scenario

Donald Trump's campaign pledge is to "Make America Great Again."  Instead, if he is nominated, he may end up destroying the Republican Party.  

Trump's blustery, brash and in-your-face demeanor has attracted a large following of devoted acolytes that have lifted him to front-runner status for his party's nomination.    Ever the showman, Trump has gobbled up hours of free media time on television news outlets, which has resulted in huge ratings.  

Since he announced his candidacy last June in the opulent lobby of Trump Tower on New York's Fifth Avenue, he has overcome many political gaffes and consistently confounded political commentators who have many times predicted his demise.   At long last, though, it appears that the accumulated weight of his missteps has begun to drag on his campaign, and may have permanently damaged the Republican Party. 

Trump has referred to Mexicans and rapists.  He has promised to build a wall along the Mexican border, which he says Mexico will pay for.   He has pledged a mass deportation of all 11 million immigrants who are in this country illegally.   He has called for a ban on Muslims entering the United States.   He has humiliated his opponent's wives, including Heidi Cruz and Columba Bush.  He has attacked journalists, including Univision's Jorge Ramos and Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, who each have millions of loyal viewers.

Trump has alienated women.  "Look at that face!" he said of then opponent Carly Fiorina.  "Would anyone vote for that?"  He has unapologetically supported his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who has been charged with battery for grabbing the arm of a female reporter at a rally.  And, in an apparent attempt to strengthen his bona fides as a pro-life candidate, he said that there has to be "some form of punishment" for women who have abortions.   He later recanted that position following a firestorm of protests, saying in a statement that if abortions were illegal, "The doctor or any other person performing this illegal act upon women would be held legally responsible, not the women."

Trump has also alarmed our allies in Europe with is lack of understanding of foreign affairs and loose talk.  For instance, this exchange with MSNBC's Chris Matthews:     

Matthews: “Can you tell the Middle East we’re not using nuclear weapons?”

Trump: “I would never say that. I would never take any of my cards off the table.”

Matthews: “How about Europe? We won’t use in Europe?”

Trump: “I’m not going to take it off the table for anybody.”

Matthews: “You’re going to use it in Europe?”

Trump: “No! I don’t think so. But…”

Matthews: “Just say it, say ‘I’m not going to use a nuclear weapon in Europe’.”

Trump: “I am not taking cards off the table. I’m not going to use nukes – but I’m not taking any cards off the table.”

Trump rattled two Asian allies with comments he made in an interview with the New York Times. Trump said he would be open to allowing Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear arsenals as protection against North Korea and China.  

Many leading Republicans have expressed concern that if Trump is their nominee in November they will lose the Senate and maybe the House.  Nerves are so frayed that Trump suddenly traveled to Washington to meet with leaders of the Republican National Committee Thursday.  It was described in news reports as a "unity meeting" because RNC officials were concerned after Trump withdrew his pledge to support whomever the party decides to make its nominee at the Republican convention.  

Will the Republican Party awaken from what University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato calls its "Trumpmare?  Will RNC Chairman Reince Priebus heed his own warning, given when the party released its autopsy of its overwhelming 2012 election defeat?  "The RNC cannot and will not write off any demographic or community or region of this country," Priebus said.

A recent Reuters poll, taken before Trump's comments on abortion, found that 50 percent of American women hold a very unfavorable view of Trump.  Meanwhile, a Gallup Poll shows that 77 percent of Hispanics have an unfavorable view of him.  Overall, Trump's unfavorables are above 60 percent in all the recent polls, and they do not factor in his most recent gaffes.  

Trump's shadow hangs over the Republican Party.  Even if a contested Republican convention selects another nominee, the party has been badly hurt.  Priebus might reflect on the line from Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, "The fault dear Brutus is not in our stars, but in ourselves."

Growth & Opportunity Project

Monday will be a big day for Reince Priebus, the Chairman of the Republican Party.  He will announce the results of a task force he convened, following last November's election, which he asked to "figure out what we can do to grow our party and win more elections."

The "Growth & Opportunity Project" (G.O.P) is chaired by five prominent Republicans, including Henry Barbour, the formidable nephew of former GOP chairman Governor Haley Barbour, and Ari Fleischer, the former White House press secretary under President George W. Bush.  Priebus and members of the GOP reached out to party and elected officials, community leaders across the nation, as well as donors.

Priebus has posted a tape on the G.O.P. web site that gives supporters a hint of what's to come in Monday's event.  "We are going to take the lead in technology, from data analytics to digital," he says, while announcing the party will hire a chief digital technology officer.  Led by the efforts of President Obama's campaign organization, Democrats are a well ahead of Republicans with digital campaign tactics.  Priebus also promises to "refocus our ground game" and to offer an "optimistic message."

It appears that Chairman Priebus considers Republican shortcomings as nothing more than a messaging problem.  That if Republicans could reach out to more Americans, extending a friendly hand and a warm smile, the party rolls would swell and it would win more elections.  This has to be great news for Democrats.

As Priebus was putting the final touches on his task force report, Republican Congressman Paul Ryan, the losing vice presidential candidate, was announcing his latest federal budget proposal.  His proposal, which he projects will cut government spending growth over the next decade by $5 trillion, hits the poor and middle class hard.  Medicare would be voucherized, placing the burden on the elderly to find affordable quality care and pay for any cost differential.  It would block grant Medicaid, shifting the problem to the states. Of course, the winners in Ryan's proposal are the wealthy.

So while Ryan's budget takes a huge whack at social programs, Republicans are still out of step with the majority of Americans when it comes to social issues.  Florida Senator Marco Rubio drew a loud applause at the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) convention Thursday when he said, "The people who are actually closed-minded in American politics are the people who love to preach about science with regards to our climate but ignore the absolute fact that science has proven that life begins at conception."  On gay marriage, he said, "Just because I believe that states should have the right to define marriage in the traditional way does not make me a bigot."

The Republican solution to immigration reform is more troops on the border and taller fences.  The Republican solution to the epidemic of gun violence in America is more weapons.  The Republican solution for reducing unemployment is to slash the government payroll during an anemic economic recovery.  The Republican solution for federal debt is to balance the budget on the backs of the poor.  The Republican solution for universal health care is the nearest hospital emergency room. 

Also speaking at the CPAC convention was South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who bragged to thunderous applause, "Every election in our state now requires photo ID before your vote."  That's because the Republican solution to its election losses is to disenfranchise minorities through photo ID laws and reduced voting booth access. 

Memo to Democrats: remember the wise words of the great Republican strategist, Lee Atwater, who said when your opponent is self-destructing, just get out of the way.
  

GOP: A New Direction

As members of the Republican Party reflect on their losses at the polls November 6, they should do so with complete honesty and a commitment to play a constructive role in effective governance.  Their first step should be to get their house in order.  

The Republican Party under Reince Priebus was a failure.  His leadership during this past election was characterized by distortion and deception.  His incessant reliance on talking points and mean-spirited attacks did not elevate the debate nor inspire his troops.  Not only did he miscalculate how Mitt Romney would do Election Day, Romney failed to carry Priebus's home state of Wisconsin.    

Supporters credit him with cutting the RNC's debt in half, and increasing the party's donor base.  Priebus sent an email to committee members notifying them he intends to run again in January, but barely mentioned Romney's defeat and the loss of Senate seats.  Instead, he praised the RNC's get out the vote effort, even though Romney received fewer votes than Senator John McCain did four years earlier.

Preibus has not owned up to his role in voter suppression, an effort that backfired.  This tactic was based on the old axiom that if the voter turnout is large the Democrats win.  There were also allegations of voter registration fraud involving Strategic Allied Consulting, a firm the RNC retained for $1.3 million before being forced to terminate the contract.  At the time, Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said, "It's not hard to connect the dots here -- each of these cases is directly connected to Chair Reince Priebus, who as Chair of the RNC hired the firm headed by Nathan Sproul, a longtime Republican consultant with a known history of alleged voter registration fraud."  

Senate Republicans should replace their leader, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.  He has consistently put partisan politics ahead of working on a bipartisan basis with President Barack Obama.  Prior to the 2010-midterm elections, Senator McConnell famously threw down the gauntlet.   In an interview with the National Journal, the senator said, "The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president."  If Congress actually accomplished something, he reasoned, it would make the president look good.

Republicans became the party of roadblocks.  Republicans have had effective control of the Senate since the beginning of President Obama's first term.  While they did not have a majority in the Senate, they had enough seats to keep Democrats from getting the required 60 votes needed to end a filibuster.   And under Senator McConnell's leadership Republicans shattered all previous records for using filibusters.  According to the Washington Post's Ezra Klein, "There were more filibusters between 2009 and 2010 than there were in the 1950's, 1960's and 1970's combined."  In the election earlier this month Republicans lost seats to the Democrats, although not enough to end a filibuster by that party.

A mandate is in the eye of the beholder.  Democrats say the election gave the president a mandate, especially for raising taxes on the rich, while Republicans disagree.  No matter, Americans voted for a divided government, where Democrats control the White House and the Senate, and Republicans control the House of Representatives.  It was as if the voters were saying, "Alright guys, enough with the gridlock, get back in there and get something done."  

Meanwhile, government is on the edge of a fiscal cliff, which Congress created.  If no action is taken by the end of the year automatic spending reductions will kick in and all of the Bush tax cuts will expire.  That will mean the tax bill for the average household will increase by several thousand dollars, which will snuff out America's already anemic economic recovery.   

So the second thing Republicans should do is to take the high ground in the debate on the impending fiscal crisis.  They should agree to the president's proposal to increase taxes on the wealthy, while putting in place some tax reforms.  Republicans should show they are willing to compromise for the good of the country.  To do otherwise would garner blame for a Republican party that is already flat on its back from a staggering defeat on election day.  

It is time for the Republican Party to end its failed era of obstructionism.  Elections do have consequences.