Crimea: The End Game

The Crimean Parliament has announced that it will hold a referendum March 16 on whether Crimea should join the Russian Federation.  If Crimeans vote to support such a move, it will give Russian President Vladimir Putin just the pretext he is looking for to annex Crimea and, therefore, to create an even bigger crisis for the West.

Of course, President Putin did not orchestrate the Ukrainian crisis as part of a scheme to retake Crimea.  He felt threatened by Ukraine's growing desire to become closer to the West, and he reacted when his puppet, former Ukrainian president Viktor F. Yanukovych, fled to Russia.  Furthermore, he defended his actions with lies.  For instance, his claim that ethnic Russians living in Ukraine were in danger.

Crimea, which had historically been part of Russia, was gifted in 1954 to Ukraine by Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev. Sixty percent of the Crimean population is ethnic Russian.  Russia maintains a strategically important naval base on the Crimean peninsula, its gateway to the Black Sea.   The Crimean economy is heavily dependent on the Russians.

Given this context, it is hard to understand why some Republicans are blaming President Barack Obama for this crisis.  Could it be politics?  Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has been bitter since he lost to then Senator Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election.  He has since been harshly critical of Obama, who he calls "feckless."  "(Obama) does not understand that Vladimir Putin is an old KGB colonel bent on restoration of the Soviet empire. ...This president has never understood it," McCain said. 

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a close friend of McCain's, has lambasted the president as weak and indecisive.  For Graham everything ties back to a favorite Republican meme. "It started with Benghazi," Graham said. "When you kill Americans and nobody pays a price, you invite this type of aggression. I think Putin believes Obama is really all talk and no action. And unless we push back soon, the worse is yet to come." 

Former Republican New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani seemed truly praiseworthy of the Russian president -- as if America would be better off if Putin in charge. "He makes a decision and he executes it, quickly. Then everybody reacts. That's what you call a leader," he told Fox News.  "President Obama, he's got to think about it. He's got to go over it again. He's got to talk to more people about it."  

But this crisis is not President Obama's fault.  Nor was it President George W. Bush's fault when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008.  Nor was it President Lyndon Johnson's fault when the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia.  Nor was it President Eisenhower's fault when the Soviets invaded Hungary.

President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry are working with Western allies to create a diplomatic solution for Ukraine and an "off ramp" for Russia.  Ukraine has been surprisingly restrained given the circumstances.  And, while a few shots have been fired by Russian soldiers, no one has been killed since the protests last month.

The Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with Benghazi, nor is it the result of a weak American president.  Now the question is will Putin really want to take the off ramp or deescalate tensions?  Or might he be inclined to play this chess match out in a different way? 

Crimea votes to join Russia, and invites Putin to take over.  Putin sends in additional troops to "protect" the Crimean (nee Russian) people from the Ukrainians.  After much heated diplomatic negotiations and military threats, Crimea rejoins Russia, and Crimean Tartars and other minorities are suppressed.  Meanwhile, Ukraine elects a new "independent" government and receives billions of dollars in aid from the West.

Putin is an opportunist who wants to rebuild the former Russian empire.  He believes that the "...demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the century."  Of course, Crimea is where legendary Russian Grigory Potemkin constructed his famous "Potemkin Villages" in 1787 to impress Russian Empress Catherine II.   They are now a symbol of deceit, something that the Russian leader has mastered.

Ukraine's Protest at Russian Consulate

Hundreds of Ukrainian protestors demonstrated in front of the Russian Consulate on New York's Upper East Side Sunday.  Demonstrators poured in from all directions, and police were force to close of the East 91st Street block, between Madison and Fifth Avenues.

The protestors chanted anti-Russian slogans.  Several times the crowd yelled, "USA, USA!"  Numerous Ukrainian flags waved over the crowd, the flag's yellow and light blue colors brightened the panorama on an otherwise cloudy late afternoon.

Some demonstrators carried signs in support of Ukraine, others signs denouncing Russian President Vladimir Putin as Hitler.  The crowd was orderly, as young and old joined in solidarity. 

Tsar Putin and Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin is escalating the stakes by intervening in the Ukraine, and effectively taking control of the Crimean peninsula.   On Saturday, the Russian Parliament gave Putin authority to use military force in Ukraine, citing the growing threat to Russian citizens and military.  The move comes one day after President Barack Obama warned the Russians that "there will be costs" if Russia violates Ukraine's sovereignty.  But America's options to deter the Russians are limited. 

Ukraine's relationship with Russia, to be sure, became complicated by its desire to move closer to the European Union and the West.  For its part, the EU sought gradual economic integration and political cooperation with Ukraine in negotiations late last year. The EU demanded reforms from Ukraine, and it appeared that country was on track to adopt them as part of an agreement.   But last November the Ukrainian government postponed signing the agreement, which led to massive, ongoing protests.

Meanwhile, last December, Ukraine's President, Viktor Yanukovich, agreed to a $15 bailout from Russia, for which protestors accused him of selling their country out to Russia.  Putin had thrown Yanukovich a lifeline to help Ukraine avoid defaulting on its debts.  But opponents, enraged that he had turned away from the West and embraced the Russians, called for his resignation.  More than 80 protestors have been killed so far in the unrest, and last week President Yanukovich fled the country for Russia. 

A new Ukrainian government suspended the Russian bailout and has turned to the International Monetary Fund for help.  Crimea, which operates autonomously from Ukraine, did not recognize the new government.  Meanwhile, Yanukovich declared from Russia that he is still Ukraine's president.  

The name Ukraine means borderland, and it shares a 1,500-mile border with Russia.  About 17% of the 45 million people who live in Ukraine are Russian.   Crimea is a peninsula in the southern portion of Ukraine on the Black Sea.  Crimea became part of Ukraine when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, and that lead to tensions with Russia.  Nearly 60% of the Crimean population, about 2 million people, is Russian.  The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at Sevastopol, on the Crimean peninsula, and the base is leased from Ukraine through 2042.   

Putin rules his country with an iron fist.  Many Russians favor his strong, Tsar-like leadership.  But Putin's Russia has struggled to regain is superpower footing since the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Corruption, onerous restrictions on free speech, and human rights abuses in that country have embolden Putin's opposition.  Moreover, many of the former Soviet states are pulling away from Russia's orbit; moves that will further weaken that country's influence and economic stability. 

In August 2008, Russia sent its troops into Georgia to "protect" its citizens in separatist South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  A ceasefire was negotiated after four days of fighting, and many Russian troops were withdrawn.  But Russian troops are still stationed in Ossetia and Abkhazia as a result of bilateral agreements with each government. 

In 2005, President Putin said, in an interview, “First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” He added, “As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory."  And speaking about separatist movements in Georgia, he said, “The epidemic of collapse has spilled over to Russia itself.” 

Now Putin has decided to take on the immense challenge of trying to control the outcome of Ukraine's future.  But instead of giving the former Soviet state the right to democratically decide its own future, he may, instead, divide the country in two, and perpetuate an ongoing war.  And his preoccupation with Ukraine is certain to spill over into negotiations involving the future of Syria and Iran's nuclear weapons program. 

The Sochi Olympics are already a distant memory, and any goodwill Russia received from them has been erased by Putin's blatant and outrageous actions against Ukraine.  

It is time for the free world to rise up in support of Ukraine and to denounce Tsar Putin.   

Putin's Stage

Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin loves being the center of attention. And his decision not to extradite fugitive Edward Snowden to the United States has now found him at the center of an East-West standoff.

Putin is an expert in espionage. In 1975, Putin began his 16-year career with the KGB. Among his duties were spying on foreigners and counselor officials in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg. His experiences were beneficial to his meteoric rise through Russia's hierarchy to become Russia's most powerful figure. For more than a decade he has ruthlessly ruled his country, and leveraged his power to maintain Russia's standing as one of the world's leading powers.

President Putin enjoys his place on the world stage. But his country is plagued by corruption and human rights abuses. Information is power, and the Russian government is a master at monitoring dissenting voices. Yet Putin's approval rating among Russians is high, in part because Russia has reasserted itself in global affairs, according to some observers.

On Tuesday, Putin gave the first direct confirmation that Edward Snowden was in an international transit area at the Moscow airport. “Mr. Snowden is a free man," Putin said, according to Russian news services, "The faster he chooses his ultimate destination, the better for us and for him.” Snowden is thought to be carrying a mother lode of U.S. intelligence information. But Putin said Russia's security services, “are not engaged with him and will not be engaged.” Really?

The Russian president said he would not extradite Snowden to the U.S. “As for the issue of the possibility of extradition,” Mr. Putin said, “we can only send back some foreign nationals to the countries with which we have the relevant international agreements on extradition. With the United States we have no such agreement.”

Putin seemed to be supportive of Snowden, and of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. "Assange and Snowden consider themselves human rights activists and say they are fighting for the spread of information." He continued, "Ask yourself this: should you hand these people over so they will be put in prison?" He concluded, "In any case, I'd rather not deal with such questions, because anyway it's like shearing a pig – lots of screams but little wool."

Putin's position is outrageous when weighed against the fact that so many Russian dissidents are in prison. For instance, some members of the punk-rock band Pussy Riot were imprisoned for staging a guerrilla performance in a Moscow cathedral. It led to a music video entitled, "Punk Prayer - Mother of God, Chase Putin Away!"

Putin has snubbed the West on a number of international issues. He has continued to support beleaguered Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in that country's civil war, in the face of calls for his removal by the West. That civil war has resulted in 90,000 deaths. Russia maintains a naval base in Syria, and has long had a close alliance with the Assad regime. Putin recently said that there is no proof Syria used chemical weapons on its own people, despite the preponderance of evidence they did. And he opposes U.S. efforts to arm the Syrian rebels. Last week, he said, "If the United States ... recognizes one of the key Syrian opposition organizations, al-Nusra, as terrorist ... how can one deliver arms to those opposition members?"

The story is the same in Iran, long a close Russian ally. Putin congratulated the newly elected President of Iran, Hassan Rowhani, and promised to expand bilateral relations with that government. Iran is currently arming Assad's regime in Syria, as well as Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters, who have joined the government in that civil war. Meanwhile, Putin has said he has no doubt that Iran is adhering to international agreements on nuclear non-proliferation. He has also accused America of exaggerating Iran's intentions, "the United States uses Iran to unite Western allies against some real or non-existent threat."

New England Patriot's owner Robert Kraft learned first hand how President Putin operates. After offering the Russian president a chance to hold his Super Bowl ring, Putin pocketed it. When word of the incident made headlines, Putin had a suggestion. "I will ask a jewelry firm to make a really good and big thing, so everyone will see it is a luxury piece, made of quality metal and with a stone, so this piece will be passed from generation to generation in the team whose interests are represented by Mr. Kraft," he said. "This would be the smartest solution partners can ever achieve while tackling such a complicated international problem.”

For Putin, all of the world's a stage. But one prominent Russian businessmen said of Putin, "We have two Putins. There are lots of words, but the system doesn't work." Let's hope that Russians look beyond Putin's gamesmanship and grandstanding to see that Putin is just a bad actor.