Hugo Chavez

President Hugo Chavez's death, while not unexpected, brings an uncertain future to a country that he ruled with an iron fist.  It also may present a great opportunity for American diplomacy in Venezuela and Latin America.

Chavez wanted to be considered a man of the people.  He was charismatic, quick witted and combative.  He was a polarizing leader, pitting the rich against the poor.  He verbally attacked superpowers, while embracing Cuban leader Fidel Castro and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 

To his opponents, he was a tyrant who imposed on his country a "Bolivarian" socialist state, while suppressing the media, limiting rights and nationalizing oil production.  His socialist revolution was focused on feeding and educating the poor, and expanding health care throughout the country.  This was his base, and he won their loyalty.

He entertained his followers with humor, singing, dancing and endless speeches.  He decided to nationalize golf courses, saying, "That’s an injustice – that someone should have the luxury of having I don’t know how many hectares to play golf and drink whiskey and, next door, there’s misery and children dying when there are landslides."

He wielded influence somewhat successfully throughout Latin America by attacking the United States as imperialist.  In 2007, he spoke to the United Nations a day after President George Bush.  "The devil came here yesterday, and it smells of sulfur still today, this table that I am now standing in front of," he said to the assembly.  He once responded to criticism from President Barack Obama by saying in a speech, "You are a clown, a clown."    

Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world, and about 40% of the oil it exports goes to the United States, or almost one million barrels a day.  Yet, while oil wealth was the source of Chavez's power, the country's economy faces serious problems brought on by spending, capital flight and shortages. 

Now Chavez is dead, and his loss leaves a great vacuum, and a country roiled in a political crisis.  His handpicked successor is Vice President Nicolás Maduro, who announced the president's death while accusing the United States of destabilizing Venezuela, and the expulsion of two U.S. military attaches.  The constitution calls for an election in 30 days, but Muduro, who will be a candidate, will run the country until a new president is chosen.

President Obama issued a statement on Tuesday, “At this challenging time of President Hugo Chavez’s passing, the United States reaffirms its support for the Venezuelan people and its interest in developing a constructive relationship with the Venezuelan government."  This will be a major diplomatic challenge for the U.S.

Meanwhile, the Venezuela's defense minister said, the military is in the "process of deploying ... to ensure the safety of all Venezuelans."  And Maduro, a former bus driver, in announcing Chavez's death, said, "We call on all compatriots to guarantee the peace. We, his civil and military compatriots, assume the legacy of Hugo Chavez."  

But will a bitterly divided Venezuelan people, freed of the yoke of a larger than life dictator, want to carry on his legacy? 

El Presidente

President Barack Obama has not only turned the page with his personal approach to American foreign policy, he is rewriting the book. But this has sent the party of "no" into a tizzy. So Republicans are once again attacking Obama in hopes of driving his popularity down.

For one brief moment I thought that the United States had surrendered to Venezuela. At least, that seemed to be the tenor of the reaction from the frenzied fomenters of the right to a handshake and exchange of smiles between President Obama and Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez. Gasp!

To be sure, Hugo Chavez is a very bad person whose regime may have been responsible for as many as 6,000 killings according to the U.S. State Department. He has been accused of torture and a 2008 State Department report says, "Reports of beatings and other humiliating treatment of suspects during arrests were common and involved various law enforcement agencies." Chavez has been charged with rigging elections, cracking down on political opponents, and maneuvering a "takeover of the Supreme Court." President Chavez has taken control of virtually all the country's media and he rewrote laws so that insulting the president is punishable by up to 30 months in prison.

This past February Venezuelans voted to remove term limits for their president, a similar measure had failed in 2007. If reelected to a third term in 2012, President Chavez will serve until at least 2019. By all means, though, it is not clear sailing for "El Presidente." Annual inflation is about 30%, violent crime is up and weak oil prices have led to unpopular budget cuts. Today there was more bad news, Venezuela's first quarter oil revenues were down 33%.

Overall, President Bush's administration did not pay as much attention to Latin America as it should have. This left the door open for Chavez to manipulate governments and exert influence in the region with petrol dollars and a populist-socialist fervor. And now the Chinese are playing an ever growing role. It is time for a change of approach in American foreign policy.

Presidents Obama and Chavez met three times during the Fifth Summit of the Americas. Conservative critics accused Obama of looking weak, like President Jimmy Carter! Some people in Venezuela thought Chavez used the meetings to validate his power. But many others believe Chavez looked like a fool giving Obama a book, especially after a decade of anti-American rhetoric.

Chavez remains a polarizing figure in his own country as well as throughout Latin America. He has a huge ego, and worse, he is a wily survivor. "We just want to be treated with respect,” Chavez is quoted as saying after the summit. “We demand respect for our dignity, our sovereignty, and the self-determination of the Venezuelan people. Therefore, we are willing to pursue better relations with the new government of the United States."

Venezuela is a major source of oil for the United States. Unfortunately, Chavez is a democratically elected president. For a long time the countries of Latin America have felt largely ignored and under appreciated by the United States. This vacuum has been exploited by President Chavez and Bush's tough talk and empty diplomacy only encouraged him more.

With a handshake and a smile President Obama has signaled his desire for a new beginning in relations between the United States and all Latin American countries. This first step, however, must be followed up with a constant two-way dialog, consistent communications and mutual respect. Most importantly, American diplomacy with Venezuela must have a clear a strategy and firm goals in order to be successful.

But the more engaged and successful the United States is in Latin America, the more it diminishes Chavez in the region as well as in the eyes of all Venezuelans.